Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, on one hand where both the political parties are campaigning fiercely and leaving no stone unturned to woo the voters, claiming victory behind the scenes there is a different story brewing. This time the election atmosphere in Rajasthan has completely changed. Despite the fact that the Narendra Modi wave is being used as a tool for campaign, the BJP appears to be worried. The zeal and enthusiasm of 2014 and 2019 has dimmed. Rather on certain seats the caste equation seems to be creating a bigger stir than the Modi wave. This is giving Congress hope. If the BJP does not repeat the performance of 2019, then questions may be raised on the experiment done by the BJP by fighting on PM Modi’s face and by putting forward leaders with less experience.
In case of Rajasthan, the Achilles heel is the caste equation in the state. The castes which supported the BJP did not get proper representation in the formation of government which might have created resentment in the Gurjar and Meena communities. The Jats were already angry. Additionally, with the increasing influence of Sachin Pilot in Congress, if the Gurjars do not support the PM, their challenge might increase for which the BJP strategists shall be held responsible.
BJP leaders are facing challenges, particularly Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma whose position appears precarious. State President C.P. Joshi might not be significantly affected but his future prospects seem uncertain, especially regarding ministerial roles after the Lok Sabha elections.
Bhajan Lal Sharma’s tenure as Chief Minister seems to be overshadowed by control from Delhi, with Chief Secretary Sudhanshu Pant exerting notable influence. This has hindered Sharma’s ability to make a significant impact. Factionalism within the cabinet and the unsuccessful experiment of having two Deputy Chief Ministers has further complicated matters. Additionally, ticket distribution, particularly in Jat-dominated constituencies, has sparked discontent and rebellion within BJP ranks.
The situation is exacerbated by rebellions such as Prahlad Gunjal contesting against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla in Kota, further adding to the internal strife. Despite Prime Minister Modi’s attempts to address issues through visits to various constituencies, the challenges persist, and a resolution may not be forthcoming until 4 June.
The Chief Ministership is looking heavy on Bhajan Lal, who became the Chief Minister for the first time. An effective environment could not be created. Caste politics became dominant. Even in ticket distribution, tickets were not distributed properly on Jat dominated seats. The failure to remove deserving candidates from ticket contention has also created internal dissent. Delhi’s attempts at experimentation looks backfiring and causing internal rebellion, particularly in Churu, Barmer, Nagaur, and Jhunjhunu. Kota is witnessing further turmoil as party rebel Prahlad Gunjal contests against Congress, posing a challenge to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. Competitions are heating up in Tonk, Sawai Madhopur, Banswara, Jodhpur, Jalore, and Sirohi, underscoring the significance of experienced leadership in navigating such complexities.
The sidelining of former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and ex-state president Satish Poonia seems ill-advised, as their expertise and influence are sorely missed in the current landscape. Hence, even minor missteps can have significant repercussions in Rajasthan.