More than 900 million voters are eligible to cast their ballots in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that are being held in seven phases, of which three are over. Just as the 2.23 billion vaccines given free of cost created a record for the number of vaccines for a single disease administered in any country, voter eligibility has broken another record. Not just for moths but also for years, there has been a continuous buzz in Western media about what they claim to be a steady downslide in the resilience, and indeed the very existence, of democracy in India now that the first Prime Minister of India who is from what is termed a “Backward Caste” is in office. There is little doubt that there is an ocean of difference between Rahul Gandhi’s view of what policy needs to be and that of Narendra Modi. Although well known to the family of the initiator of the economic boom in China, Deng Xiaoping, Rahul appears to have jettisoned the Deng philosophy of permitting enterprise and initiative to multiply. The reason is that such a policy is in contrast to the view expressed by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, that the state should control the “commanding heights” of the economy. In 1969, that process was taken further by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who nationalised any bank that had deposits in excess of Rs 50 crore. Few voters peruse the manifestos published by political parties, for they look to the statements of key leaders for insight of what lies ahead, should they come to office. Rahul Gandhi is the choice of Congress Supremo Sonia Gandhi for the Prime Ministership of India, should 2014 turn out to be another 2004, when the BJP lost power to the Congress Party. A lot of promises have been made with an eye on specific segments of the overall voter base, a tactic that worked well in the Karnataka state assembly polls, and which the Congress leadership believes could work nationally as well. Every youth is promised a government job. Each such job is at a cost to the exchequer. Who will pay for all of them if private industry is downgraded ? A smaller and smaller taxpayer base will result, as insecurity of holding property will rise in the way that was witnessed until the 1990s. Then why such slogans? To ensure that more votes get secured, so that the Congress Party can emerge post-poll as the leader of the anti-BJP alliance in the way it was throughout the UPA period.
The Congress manifesto is lavish in its praise of the steps taken by Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao, although his name is avoided. Yet it was the very reforms that Narasimha Rao carried out in the initial years of his single term in office that were bitterly opposed by Arjun Singh, N D Tiwari and others. The rebellion against PM PV Narasimha Rao had the not very covert backing of Sonia Gandhi, and this is what gave the rebels enough strength to ensure the defeat of the Congress Party in 1996. As for the policies of Narasimha Rao, they stand in contrast to the policies being espoused by the present Congress leadership during the polls. Investors both domestic and foreign are watching to see if there is a Modi 3.0 or a UPA 3.0 after the results are declared on June 4. Where economic and foreign policy is concerned, they are looking for an acceleration of reforms and a continuation of the present policy of continuing to strengthen ties with countries such as the US and Taiwan, rather than expend most of the effort on a futile quest of befriending the Sino-Pakistan alliance. There will be a sea change, indeed an oceanic change, were UPA 3.0 to emerge rather than Modi 3.0. In the south, should the BJP notch a few seats in Kerala, it would change the dynamics of the state, just as a victory for the TDP-BJP alliance would in Andhra Pradesh. The BJP may improve its seat tally in Telangana, assisted by the TDP voter base in the state. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-Congress alliance has gained an advantage as a consequence of the AIADMK and the BJP not coming together. However, should the BJP prove the pundits wrong and succeed as a consequence of the strategy worked out by state BJP President Annamalai, he would become a national star and a likely entrant into a Modi 3.0 Cabinet. In Karnataka, the anti-incumbency cloud over the BJP is getting replaced by the anti-incumbency cloud of the present Congress government. Will that change the picture from what it was during the assembly polls? The voter will decide. In Maharashtra, will Uddhav still retain the sympathy factor after teaming up with the Congress Party? Will bloodline prevail over ideology in the mind of the voter ? Again, voters will decide. Modi 3.0 and UPA 3.0 offer very different futures for India. Ultimately, it is the ballot box that will decide whether Prime Minister Modi gets a third term to push forward his objective of double digit growth, or whether the country returns to the policies of the pre-Narasimha Rao period. Seeing the vigour of democracy at work, at least now, will those who doubt the strength of democracy in India be silenced ? Claiming so is an aspersion to not just the present ruling party and its leader, but to the 1.4 billion people of India, especially to the 900 million and more citizens who are eligible to cast their ballots in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.