NEW DELHI: In 2004, Congress won 145 seats and formed government with the help of opposition parties.
The general elections of 2024 have become the most interesting so far. While the BJP is talking about crossing the 400 mark, the opposition, especially the Congress, is unable to make any claims openly about themselves. While they do refer to the situation in 2004, they are refraining from claiming even 145 seats. Based on the elections so far, it doesn’t seem like such a scenario is going to happen. The circumstances then and now have completely changed. The BJP is contesting the elections under the leadership of the powerful figure of Narendra Modi, while the opposition lacks a prominent face. Despite this, former Congress president Rahul Gandhi claims that if the BJP fails to cross 180 seats this time, then with the support of Congress ally Arvind Kejriwal, they can take it up to 220 seats. Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, speaking about Uttar Pradesh, says that the I.N.D.I. Alliance will win 79 seats in the state. Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee makes a different announcement that her party, will support the I.N.D.I. government from outside. All opposition parties have their own estimates. There is no unity among them. How accurate or incorrect the opposition’s estimate is will be known on the results day, 4th June.
During 2004 and 2009, when the UPA government was formed under the leadership of the Congress, they managed to secure a significant number of seats in the Hindi belt and the South. If we compare the figures from that time to 2014 and 2019, it seems unlikely for the Congress to repeat that performance this time. The reason for this is that Congress has made several mistakes. One, they couldn’t decide who would be the face against Prime Minister Modi. Whereas in 2004, Sonia Gandhi was the face of the opposition. BJP lost the battle due to the sympathy towards Sonia Gandhi. Because BJP leaders made statements against Sonia Gandhi that shouldn’t have been made. Congress is making the same mistake that the BJP made in 2004, meaning the use of inappropriate language against Prime Minister Modi. Along with this, Congress did not fight the elections strongly. One reason for this was the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. After the program held in Ayodhya on 22nd January, the opposition’s morale was completely shattered. Money was also in shortage, especially after losing states like Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Now whatever help is coming is from Telangana, Karnataka, and the small state of Himachal Pradesh.
In the first and second phases of voting, the opposition felt that the situation was changing. Then it started showing aggression in its campaigning. However, the issue of reservation and the Constitution was incorrectly captured. An attempt was made to provoke caste politics by raising these issues. However, it seems that the aggrieved upper caste community has completely turned away from Congress and the opposition. The reserved castes, who were warned by the opposition that the Constitution would be changed and reservation would be abolished, never vote unilaterally. A significant chunk like the OBCs are inclined towards the BJP. The rest are divided. In the meantime, there were rumours about the anger of the Rajput community. Efforts were made to confuse the Rajput and educated voters, but they did not pay attention to the fact that they were antagonizing the upper castes by raising the issue of reservations.
Talking about 2004, Congress won 145 seats and formed the government with the help of other opposition parties. At that time, Congress contested on 417 seats. This time around, Congress is contesting on around 304 seats. In 2004, Congress won the most, 29 seats, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. This time, there is less hope for Congress on one of the 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh. For Telangana’s 17 seats, talks are happening about 7 to 8. In Gujarat, where Congress won 12 seats then, this time, that is unlikely. In Uttar Pradesh Congress won 9 seats in 2004 and 21 in 2009. This time, there’s talk of winning only 1 or 2 seats. In Rajasthan, Congress won only 4 seats then, and this time, it’s going from 4 to 5.
Congress claims 12 to 13 seats. In Madhya Pradesh, Congress won 4 seats then, and this time, the situation doesn’t seem to be changing much, and results similar to 2019 could be seen. In Himachal Pradesh, where there were 3 seats then, there’s doubt about winning even one this time. While there was one seat considered in Chhattisgarh then, one seat was won then, and talks of winning one are going on this time as well. In Chandigarh, Daman and Diu, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Congress won one seat each then. This time, there’s a possibility of winning in one of these seats. In Kerala, where Congress did not achieve much success on 20 seats then, Congress is hopeful of winning more than 15 this time. In Jharkhand, there is concern about the account opening this time. Six seats were won then. In Odisha, Congress got two seats then. There is doubt about the account opening this time because even there, Congress seems to be almost finished. In Assam, Congress won 9 out of 14 seats then. Now, the situation has completely changed, and expectations are being expressed for one or two seats. One Hindi-speaking state is Haryana, where Congress is being said to be in contention with 3 to 4 seats today, while it won 9 seats then. In Jammu and Kashmir, there were 2 seats then for Congress. Now, there is still hope for that many. In Delhi, where there were 6 seats for Congress then, there is a fight on just three seats this time.
In fact, after the decisive defeat in 2014, Congress did not pay attention to states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Delhi as it should have. Rajasthan was lost due to weak central leadership. In Madhya Pradesh, internal disputes within the Congress led to its demise. The same situation happened in Punjab, the strongest state. The party disappeared in Bengal and Odisha. There are no leaders left in states like Assam and the Northeast. There are no leaders left in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar either. Regional parties are in control of Andhra Pradesh. In Haryana, groupism that has been going on for 20 years continues. In these circumstances, Kerala is the only support for Congress. Even there, it seems unlikely that the Left Front will give Congress much attention now. Except for Kerala and Tamil Nadu, there is not a single state in the entire country where Congress can claim to be winning so many seats confidently. Whatever seats are being talked about in Rajasthan are solely due to caste equations and the candidate, not Congress. In Haryana, the fight for 3 to 4 seats against BJP is due to BJP’s ten years of anti-incumbency and weak candidates. Congress is seen contesting elections only on the strength of reservation or in the hope that the general public is upset with the BJP. There is no such wave that could suggest that Congress could even touch the figure of 100. Whatever hope exists is just in the air. There is nothing on the ground.