Like always, the exit polls and their findings, disclosed on Saturday evening this time, shall be on trial, with the actual results expected to give a clear and final picture regarding the ultimate outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In a country as complex as ours, it is not easy to get it always right and thus the onus of being accurate lies on the companies that have gone ahead and taken this calculated risk.
It is true that some such exercises have proved to be correct in previous elections but there is never any guarantee that this may be the case each time. There has also been a mismatch of the exit poll results and the assessment made by reporters on the ground and thus 4 June indeed shall be the day when all speculation and calculation would be put to rest.
Anticipating, rightly or wrongly that the exit polls would give a massive victory to the ruling dispensation, some political parties have decided not to send their representatives to the evening discussions, thus, raising question mark over their accuracy. The objection is mainly because several Opposition parties feel that those who conduct the polls, are at some level or the other ideologically aligned with a particular political outfit, and thereby they view issues through pre-determined mindsets.
There have been many discussions on the exit polls and opinion polls, and there is no dearth of people, who are convinced that these are often used by contesting parties to create a perception rather than bringing out the truth. This is simply a view point, and casting aspersions on those involved in the exercise is questioning both the credibility of those conducting them, as also refusing to accept what could possibly be the truth on the counting day.
Yes, psephology has to keep on evolving given the varied nature of the electorate and though there is a scientific dimension involved, the chances of a human error can never be ruled out. Some of the exit polls proved to be correct even during the recent Assembly polls and there is little reason to believe that they may not be on the mark this time also. The only difference is that for a population as large as ours and the diversity as enormous, it requires many variations of methods to record the facts accurately.
Equally difficult is the data assessment though many who have been in the business have devised their own novel methods to bring out their findings. The exit poll pundits also have their credibility on the line and people do not forget the results if they are at variance with the final outcome on the counting day. Many reputations thus, can be made and broken by one simple mistake.
Since the past few days, some TV channels have been repeatedly showing the 2014 and 2019 figures, and on that basis trying to project the 2024 outcome, through discussions which feature experts drawn from various fields. While this is good for TRP ratings and for conducting programmes, it may not necessarily reflect how the electorate would have behaved this time.
Many seasoned politicians including Lal Krishna Advani would always drive home the point that every election has its uniqueness, and the same card cannot be replicated each time. Therefore, to come to any conclusion after what had happened in the previous polls, may have its flaws.
For instance, in 2009, the Congress had procured more than 200 seats and the BJP had been reduced to 116. But in the elections that followed in 2014, the Congress reached its lowest ever mark and the BJP jumped to its highest tally of 282. This was obviously on account of multiple facts, the strong anti-Congress sentiment being the foremost.
The grand old party was perceived to be both corrupt in the wake of several alleged scams and the India Against Corruption movement headed by Anna Hazare. It was also a general feeling that the Congress had tilted towards the minorities, a fact admitted by the A.K. Anthony committee report later. These weaknesses were fully exploited by seasoned BJP campaigners and Narendra Modi, then the BJP’s Prime Ministerial nominee, caught the imagination of the people as someone who could be trusted to deliver.
In 2019, the BJP always had the edge and the Congress with its organization in a mess, again failed to impress, losing majority of seats it contested against the saffron Brigade with huge margins. Modi was by now a cult figure and the Pulwama strike helped, since it aroused patriotic passions leading to an unprecedented victory by the BJP, which crossed the 300-mark for the first time, and enabled the Prime Minister to achieve a rare distinction of leading his party, while scoring a very impressive win.
In 2024, things are not the same and many things have altered. Modi continues to be the most popular political leader but the Opposition is more organized and has strategized its approach. The BJP which had reached the maximum mark in the previous polls, is unable to figure out the new areas from where it can gain.
In addition, there is this talk of the RSS not being as enthusiastic as it had been earlier and if this was so, it would certainly have an impact on the final outcome. The BJP continues to be confident of giving Modi a record third term, but so is the Opposition of denying this to him. Between us.