KOLKATA: The question that has left everybody flummoxed is how the Trinamool Congress managed to wrest victory for its ‘unpopular and unwinnable candidates’ in the face of serious anti-incumbency.
That the Lok Sabha elections threw up unexpected results is well-known by now. In West Bengal, the better than expected performance of the Trinamool Congress and the consequent under-performance by its arch-rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party, defied all oracular pollsters and poll watchers. From Prashant Kishor to myriad television channels, all had to eat humble pie as the Trinamool Congress increased its tally to 29 seats while the BJP’s seats dwindled to 12 and the Congress had to be content with just one.
The question that has left everybody flummoxed is how the Trinamool Congress managed to wrest victory for its “unpopular and unwinnable candidates” in the face of serious anti-incumbency. The Sunday Guardian pieces together the puzzle after speaking extensively to Trinamool insiders and key members of the I-PAC team that made it possible and who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Addressing a press conference on 4 June, hours after the trends of the Lok Sabha results became public, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee thanked I-PAC for extending support to her party. “I am thanking all the Trinamool grassroots and the entire team of I-PAC,” she said. She also added that poll strategist Prashant Kishor was not with I-PAC and it was a new team that worked with her party.
During the run-up to the Lok Sabha election, the I-PAC team not only designed campaign strategies for Trinamool candidates but also played a key role in reaching out to different categories of voters, including Scheduled Tribe and OBC candidates and women. The representatives of I-PAC reached out to beneficiaries of several schemes of the West Bengal government, particularly women, and convinced them to vote for the state’s ruling party.
A senior party leader said: “The Trinamool winning 29 of 42 seats and registering a vote share of 45.76% is an endorsement of the people’s faith in Mamata Banerjee and the political management skills of Abhishek Banerjee and his team from I-PAC. Otherwise, how else can one explain the wins of our leaders like the elderly Saugata Roy, proven non-performers like Dev, disconnected leaders like Sudip Bandyopadhyay and unpopular candidates like Kalyan Banerjee and Mahua Moitra? And even Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar who won in a faction-riven seat like Barasat?”
SAUGATA ROY
Saugata Roy (78) retained the Dum Dum seat that he has been winning since 2009. But much before the elections were announced, it was speculated that, this time, the electorate would opt for the BJP for which, the Dum Dum seat holds an emotional place. This was the first Lok Sabha seat that the BJP won in West Bengal when the late Tapan Sikdar won the seat in 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with the newly formed Trinamool Congress, leading the formation of the Atal Behari Vajpayee government.
Before the Trinamool Congress announced its pick, partymen had been speculating that 78-year-old Saugata Roy was on the verge of being retired. However, he managed to get the backing of Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee, to contest again.
The BJP fielded Shilbhadra Dutta, who, as an erstwhile Trinamool Congress leader from North 24 Parganas District, had substantial experience in handling the ruling party’s organisational affairs there.
The CPM fielded party veteran and central committee member, Sujan Chakraborty, since his party still has a dedicated voter base in Dum Dum.
“SaugataDa was an unwinnable candidate. While he has managed to ingratiate himself with MamataDi and Abhishek, his abrasive behaviour with the party’s local leaders was a cause for concern. His advanced age and lack of connect with the voters, and the presence of strong rivals like Shilbhadra Dutta and Sujan Chakraborty were the major worries. The voters’ disillusionment was reflected in his progressively falling victory margins. From 154,934 in 2014 to 52,999 in 2019,” says an influential Trinamool leader.
Trinamool insiders say that apart from a targeted outreach to the women voters who are the beneficiaries of Lakkhir Bhandar, I-PAC also worked behind the scenes to help the CPM’s campaign to ensure that a large chunk of the anti-incumbency vote got diverted to the Left party. As a result, although Saugata’s vote-share decreased, he won since the CPM managed to increase its votes by 73,000 and BJP’s Shilbhadra Dutta fell behind by 70,000 votes.
KAKOLI GHOSH DASTIDAR
Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, a three-time MP from Barasat was aiming for a fourth consecutive term.
“There were repeated incidents of public conflict between some leaders in the district, and KakoliDi herself, which have been embarrassing the party. There are major conflicts among some top leaders, which, despite repeated caution, could not be handled. In all the five organisational committees in the district, differences among local leadership caused disintegration in the organisational activities, which had been influencing party workers at the grassroots,” a Trinamool insider said.
One major worry for the Trinamool was the incarceration of district heavyweight Jyoti Priya Mallick, Bengal’s minister for forest, and public enterprises and industrial reconstruction, who is under ED and CBI custody for his role in the Public Distribution System scam. Mallick was an important cog due to his ability to handle the politically volatile district with five Lok Sabha seats and 33 Assembly constituencies, both being the highest in Bengal.
“Apart from the women’s vote, we made a strategic decision to play up fears about the NRC and the CAA among the minorities. As a result, the 27% Muslim votes came en bloc. At the same time, the Matuas, who are present in huge numbers, were targeted by a fear campaign over citizenship led by MamataDi herself,” says the I-PAC representative.
MAHUA MOITRA
Mahua Moitra was controversy’s favourite child in the 2019 Lok Sabha. From vociferous targeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Gautam Adani to summary expulsion from Parliament for her alleged cash for query scam, the 49-year-old hit the headlines throughout her Lok Sabha stint.
Moitra was expelled from the Lok Sabha in December 2023 after the Lok Sabha Ethics Committee found her guilty of asking Parliamentary questions at the behest of industrialist Darshan Hiranandani.
Though the Trinamool Congress maintained a studious silence when BJP MP Nishikant Dubey, aided by “her spurned ex”, brought out facts that led to her expulsion, Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee decided to stick with her for the Krishnanagar seat. Moitra returned to the Lok Sabha after winning the Krishnanagar parliamentary constituency by more than 56,000 votes, though it was less than her 2019 victory margin.
“Mahua is quite unpopular with the district leaders. Her relationship with the district media is also bad. In the normal course of events, she would have been left stranded. But MamataDi decided that Mahua be projected as the Trinamool’s face against the BJP, hence she got the ticket,” says a district leader.
The I-PAC functionary told The Sunday Guardian: “Mahua made enemies everywhere. We had to bank on the 36% Muslim vote in the constituency and MamataDi’s push so that the district leaders were forced to work for Mahua,” he said. The equation was “Mamata plus Muslim minus Mahua,” he added.
There is, however, a fear that Moitra, despite her Lok Sabha win, may be in for hard times ahead. The Lokpal ordered a CBI probe into charges against Mahua Moitra. The Lokpal order mentions that she allegedly received luxury items, travel expenses, holidays, etc., from businessman Darshan Hiranandani and there was a demand for his support for the renovation of her then official bungalow in New Delhi.
Trinamool insiders say if the CBI finds her guilty, Mahua might be in trouble.
KALYAN BANERJEE
“If there was a parliamentary award for the most ill-behaved MP, our KalyanDa would win it hands down,” a Trinamool Congress MP told The Sunday Guardian.
From mocking Vice-President and Rajya Sabha Chairperson Jagdeep Dhankhar from the steps of Parliament to being unpleasant with voters and even parliamentary and party colleagues, there are few who can beat Kalyan Banerjee, otherwise a seasoned lawyer. On the campaign trail, he asked Trinamool Congress MLA and actor Kanchan Mullick, who married thrice, to stay away from his campaign, anticipating adverse reactions from rural women. Mullick is the sitting MLA from Uttarpara, which is among the Serampore’s seven Assembly segments.
Before the elections, the veteran parliamentarian had told The Sunday Guardian: “My USP is that I am well known in national politics as one of the most prominent Opposition faces to Narendra Modi. The BJP is afraid of me.”
As a result, when Banerjee was pitted against his former son-in-law and Supreme Court lawyer Kabir Shankar Bose of the BJP and the CPM’s Young Turk and JNU research scholar, Dipsita Dhar, many expected sparks would fly.
Dipsita Dhar of the CPM too launched a spirited campaign with the support of young party colleagues and local Congressmen. “Banerjee’s biggest contribution to India’s parliamentary history has been his Paglu dance on the hallowed steps of Parliament to mimic the Vice-President of the country. We sought accountability from the MP of 15 years about the projects or schemes he has implemented in his constituency,” Dhar said. “We asked why so many jute mills shut down in Serampore and their plots converted to real estate projects when the industry was booming elsewhere. Why were workers of closed jute mills being denied their PFs and gratuity dues? We asked whether the real estate condominiums that are being built on river banks are ecologically sustainable,” she said.
Kalyan Banerjee skirted those questions and instead, in his usual style, made a low-level comment on Dipsita Dhar.
“Dipsita doesn’t campaign in the evening due to her complexion,” he said. He had earlier called Dipsita, an accomplished PhD scholar, “a dirty woman from JNU”.
Trinamool Congress leaders say Kalyan Banerjee, practicing in the Calcutta High Court since 1980, remained loyal to Mamata after she quit the Congress and launched the Trinamool Congress in 1998. In fact, they say his personal allegiance to the Trinamool supremo is the only reason for his political standing. So much so that he even bought an apartment almost opposite Mamata Banerjee’s Harish Chatterjee Street residence so that he can be at his leader’s beck and call at all times.
DEEPAK ADHIKARI (DEV)
“If there is ever an award for a ‘seasoned non-performer’ in Parliament, our Dev would win it hands down,” says a veteran Rajya Sabha MP from the Trinamool Congress.
The MP, known for his well-researched arguments, is not wrong.
According to PRS Legislative Research, Deepak Adhikari, well-known across West Bengal for his screen name Dev, has notched up a measly attendance of 12% in the two terms that he has represented the people of Ghatal in Paschim Medinipur district. In comparison, the average all-India attendance for Lok Sabha MPs is 79%, while West Bengal MPs have an average attendance of 66%.
In his two terms in the Lok Sabha, Dev has spoken in debates only twice in Parliament.
For people in the Ghatal Lok Sabha constituency, floods have been an issue for decades, and it has remained unaddressed despite promises by leaders of different political parties over the year before elections.
Situated around 120 km from Kolkata, the Ghatal sub-division of Purba Medinipur district is in the lower reaches of Chota Nagpur plateau’s catchment area of the Shilabati river and is hit by floods every year.
Frustrated by the unfulfilled promises of politicians to solve the flood problem, almost all locals own a boat to move when Ghatal remains inundated under water even months after the monsoon.
“I grew up seeing Ghatal under water. Nothing changed in the last 28 years. I do not think it will ever change. Elections come and go, netas make promises which fall flat after the polling is over and the issue goes into oblivion,” says Sikha Santra, a Trinamool Congress activist who says she is a fan of Dev, “our own superstar”.
Dev, months before the announcement of the Lok Sabha polls, had announced he would not be contesting again. “It was Mamata Banerjee who forced him to not only take back his decision, but also work as Didi’s star campaigner,” I-PAC sources say.
In his farewell speech at the end of the 17th Lok Sabha, Dev had spoken about the Ghatal Masterplan to solve the region’s flood woes.
In his campaign, Dev said: “I hope to continue the good work for the people of Ghatal. I wish to make the Ghatal model successful,” Dev said. “This (Ghatal Master plan implementation) is definitely a raging issue. I do not understand much about politics and that is in a way good for me. People understand this and I can also feel their pain. That is the reason I have decided to fight this election. And to implement it, if I have to take a rebirth, I will do that,” the two-time MP said.
His BJP rival and actor Hiraan (Hiranmoy Chattopadhyay, the MLA of Kharagpur) who took on Dev, said: “He (Dev) himself is saying that he needs a rebirth to do the work which he could not do in 10 years. In this constituency, the money given by the Centre has been embezzled by creating fake job cards,” Chattopadhyay, the BJP candidate said.
Despite his non-performance, Mamata Banerjee went all out to ensure Dev’s victory. And Dev too was a constant presence at numerous rallies across the state to seek votes for the Trinamool.
I-PAC sources say that had Dev not been an actor, “not even God would have been able to secure a third term for him.”
SUDIP BANDYOPADHYAY
Despite some scepticism about fielding the old guard in the Lok Sabha election, veteran leaders of the Trinamool Congress, who were given tickets by the party won with relative ease. Trinamool’s Sudip Banerjee, a veteran politician and a nine-term MP, won for the tenth time from Kolkata Uttar Lok Sabha with a margin of 92,000 votes.
But it took the might of Mamata Banerjee herself who urged the Trinamool’s local leaders in the constituency to forget their differences and ensure Sudip Bandyopadhyay’s win.
Over the years, Sudip Bandyopadhyay has rubbed every local leader the wrong way.
Tapas Roy, a long-time Trinamool MLA who left in a huff to contest on a BJP ticket against Bandyopadhyay, said: “He has made a career for himself by constantly badgering Mamata and badmouthing other party leaders.”
Trinamool sources say that in the run-up to the elections, Mamata Banerjee had personally devoted much time and energy in ensuring that Sudip Bandopadhyay’s electoral prospects were not sabotaged by her own party leaders.
Trinamool sources say Sudip Bandyopadhyay, who is in his late 70s, suffers from age related issues. They point out that when Mamata Banerjee was walking at the head of a roadshow in favour of Bandyopadhyay, the candidate himself was on a Jeep.
On polling day, Mamata Banerjee was monitoring the voting in the constituency and around noon had to call up Kunal Ghosh and another lieutenant Paresh Pal to gather at the office of a local strongman who was managing the show, “to push up the voting percentage.” And Sudip Bandyopadhyay won with a margin of 92,000.