NEW DELHI: Yogi Adityanath has assigned 30 ministers from his cabinet to oversee the elections.
The result of the Lok Sabha elections gave a reality check to both the major political parties. On one hand while the over confidence of BJP got a jolt; simultaneously brought a second life to Congress and the I.N.D.I Alliance. However after winning fewer seats in the Lok Sabha elections, opponents of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath underestimated him. With support from the Center and the Sangh, sources suggest that Yogi may now adopt a more aggressive strategy. This could involve controlling dissenting voices and taking a tougher stance against the opposition.
His immediate focus is on winning the byelections on the seats left vacant by the Lok Sabha elections. Following this, significant changes in the government and its working style are expected. Yogi Adityanath may revert to his first-term strategies.
Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav has been seizing every opportunity, playing a gamble of “Bring 100 and form the government.” While this strategy is unlikely to succeed, he has attempted to attract the weaker links.
Akhilesh Yadav recognizes that now is a prime opportunity to weaken the BJP. If even a few leaders defect, it would strengthen the opposition. However, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, responding indirectly to Akhilesh’s overture, affirmed that he is not leaving the party. Maurya’s increased activities and statements after the Lok Sabha election results have raised concerns within the BJP, energizing the opposition.
Currently, the SP appears to be strengthening the I.N.D.I Alliance by aligning with Congress. The upcoming byelections for ten seats are crucial for both sides. Akhilesh Yadav may allocate three to four of these seats to Congress.
Out of the ten vacant seats, nine were vacated due to victories in the Lok Sabha elections, and one seat, Shishamau, became vacant following the conviction of SP MLA Irfan Solanki.
Of these ten seats, SP previously held five, the BJP three, and one each by the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Nishad Party. Karhal, one of these seats, is in Akhilesh Yadav’s stronghold of Mainpuri. Winning all five seats is a significant challenge for the SP, more so than for the BJP.
Yogi Adityanath has assigned 30 ministers from his cabinet to oversee the elections. The central leadership will not interfere in these byelections, and no prominent leaders will join the campaign, making this a true test for CM Yogi. The BJP, along with its allies, is expected to easily win the seats of Ghaziabad, Phulpur, Khair, Manjhwa, and Meerapur.
If Akhilesh Yadav allocates three to four seats to the Congress, there will be a direct contest between the SP and BJP for the remaining five seats. Repeating victories in Shishamau, Milkipur, and Katehari will be challenging for Akhilesh, but the SP might have an advantage in Kundarki (Sambhal) and Karhal (Mainpuri).
As per the indications, the Election Commission will conduct by-elections for all the seats vacated by the Lok Sabha elections along with the assembly elections of Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. Elections are to be held in these states in October and November. The elections of these three states are very important for both NDA and I.N.D.I Alliance. Whoever wins will have an upper hand in the Centre. But the byelections in Uttar Pradesh are more important for CM Yogi. If Yogi wins even 5 to 7 seats out of 10, then his opponents will be silenced and the opposition will stop trying to destabilize him.
Yogi Adityanath remains the most popular leader in Uttar Pradesh on the issue of law and order. While the BJP didn’t secure as many seats as expected in the Lok Sabha elections, defeating Yogi in the Assembly elections will be difficult. Akhilesh Yadav understands that to weaken Yogi, he needs to create discord between Delhi and Lucknow. During the Lok Sabha elections, the opposition attempted to undermine Yogi, hoping to create confusion among the upper castes. Although the impact on the opposition’s success is uncertain, the BJP did experience internal unrest due to the reduced number of seats. This led to some calls for Yogi’s replacement. However, the central leadership wisely supported Yogi, giving him a free hand for the ten by-elections. Yogi plans to use an aggressive strategy to win all ten seats, focusing on his own approach and preparing for the 2027 elections.
As for Uttarakhand and Rajasthan, changes are anticipated in these states, which will be determined after the election results from three states. In Uttarakhand, the defeat in two by-elections has put Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami and state president Mahendra Bhatt under scrutiny. Meanwhile, the outcome of the by-elections for the five vacant seats in Rajasthan, led by Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma and his team, will shape the state’s future.