PUNE: Even if Hamas is now leaderless and broken, and Gaza has been reduced to ruin, the war is now entering a dangerous new phase.
THREE ATTACKS
On 27 July, Iranian rockets fired by the Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon struck a settlement in Israeli occupied Golan Heights. The rockets hit a field where children were playing football and killed 12—in the deadliest attack on Israeli soil since 7 October. Three days later, Israeli jets hit the building of the Hezbollah Shura Council in a posh suburb of Beirut, killing Faud Shukr, the top Hezbollah military commander who was responsible for the strike on Israel. His killing in the heart of Beirut was a clear message of intent.
Barely 24 hours later, Ismail Haniyeh, the chief of Hamas was assassinated in the Iranian capital of Tehran. Just hours before, he had attended the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian, and was seen on television sitting alongside supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The strike was a deliberate affront to Iran, carried out on a state guest in their own capital, staying in a government guest house guarded by their elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Although Israel did not comment on it (less a cryptic “We shed no tears”) nor claim responsibility, all indicators pointed squarely to it, and predicably Iran vowed revenge.
Initial accounts indicated that the attack came from a missile strike—an “Airborne guided projectile.” But it emerged later, that the likely cause of the explosion that ripped through Haniyeh’s room at 2 a.m. was a bomb that had been planted in the guestroom months before, just waiting to be activated at just the right time. The special guest house was used for special guests like Haniyeh and indicated the depth of infiltration in the most secure zones. That in itself carried a message to Iran. The targeted deaths of Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran have now raised the stakes and brought the ten-month war in Gaza to a new inflection point.
Haniyeh was the political, and not the military face of Hamas, but was its senior most leader. He was considered to be a more moderate face, and was the representative of Hamas during the peace talks. His killing has dealt a major blow to the peace process as talks are unlikely to continue after this. After all, you cannot mediate if you kill the chief negotiator. But then, Israel did not seem too serious about the peace talks in any case. Any subsequent ceasefire now will be purely on its own terms.
With his death, the top leadership of Hamas has now been eliminated. Israeli air strikes had killed Marwan Issa in Gaza two months ago. Mohammed Deif, the head of their military wing has also reportedly died of his wounds sustained during a Israel strike on 13 July (which also claimed 90 other Gazans). This leaves only Yahya Sinwar on the hit list. Sinwar is weak, isolated and crippled. He is still holed out in Gaza—perhaps in one of the underground tunnels —but he seems to be just “dead man walking.”
With this double strike, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has attained a major military and political success. The mood in Israel was buoyant after months of war, by what was seen as a major achievement. Netanyahu can now claim to have attained some of his war aims at least, and is closer to his professed aim of eliminating Hamas. If Israel manages to get Yahya Sinwar next, they can declare victory in Gaza, and perhaps wind up operations there. That would not get the hostages back—the only thing that could have done that was through talks and a ceasefire. But, it will free troops for subsequent operations—perhaps in Lebanon against the Hezbollah and also give Netanyahu the political capital to continue in his chair for some more time.
A NEW PHASE OF THE WAR
But even if Hamas is now leaderless and broken, and Gaza has been reduced to ruin, the war is now entering a dangerous new phase. It is unlikely that Iran will take this direct affront lightly. They will lose all standing if they do so. Iran had attacked Israeli territory in April in retaliation for an attack on their consulate in Beirut, which killed senior IRGC commanders. That was in the form of a series of drone and missile strikes, that were ineffectual and more face-saving than anything else. This strike has been on their own capital, at a national event and targeting a state guest, and they will be forced to retaliate.
In the words of their Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran will “seek vengeance as a sacred duty, in which the Zionist regime can expect severe punishment.” In an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Council, Khamenei reportedly ordered, “A direct strike on Israel.”
Another flurry of missile and drone strikes would follow. Perhaps Israeli embassies and diplomats could be targeted overseas. Their “Axis of Resistance”—Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and other militia—would be activated to launch coordinated attacks along multiple fronts on Israel. The Hezbollah would be in the forefront of these actions. Israel and the Hezbollah have been trading blows for the past 10 months now and these are likely to intensify. Israel itself seems to be preparing for an all-out war with Hezbollah, as part of its strategy to eliminate the threat and ensure long term security. Netanyahu has promised retaliation on Lebanon “that will make Gaza look like a picnic ground in comparison.” An Israel-Hezbollah war may devastate southern Lebanon. It could even target the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrullah. Israel could invade Southern Lebanon to seize area up to the Litani River, which they could hold as a buffer zone against future attacks. But defeating an organisation as strong and well-armed as the Hezbollah would be easier said than done, as their experience with Hamas has shown.
But Iran is unlikely to be passive in the case of such a war. Hezbollah is its strongest and most direct proxy, and they will not let it be defeated. They too could launch their own strikes, use the Houthis to block the Red Sea shipping lanes and attack Israeli diplomats and missions abroad. The US too would stand by Israel—irrespective of any moralistic stance they proclaim—and send additional troops and warships into the region. Each of these actions draws the region closer to all-out war, which would be much worse than the Gaza conflict, go on interminably, and also inflict unacceptable damage onto Israel itself.
For months, there have been fears that the Gaza war would escalate into a wider conflagration. Fortunately, each time the spreading embers had been doused before they could get completely out of control. Yet with these actions, it seems the wider war has now come to the region. It may be difficult to contain now, and its impact will reverberate across the world for some time to come.
Ajay Singh is an international award winning author of seven books and over 200 articles. He is a regular contributor to the Sunday Guardian.