Caution and not over-confidence, appears to be the way forward for the Congress, as the grand old party has occupied the pole position in Haryana, with the BJP struggling to keep its act together. However, it has been noticed that sensing an imminent victory, the Congress supporters are on an overdrive, and have been predicting that the outcome would show the party winning over 70 out of 90 seats.
Optimism may be good to boost the morale of the workers but it has to be both realistic and reasonable. The Congress must learn from the 2024 Lok Sabha results where the BJP at one point spoke about the unachievable target of 400 paar, and ended up with only 240 seats, thereby depending on allies to form the government at the Centre.
The 70 paar objective is achievable and should not lead to a lazy approach where the Congress snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. The party has enough problems of its own and factionalism is what is going to hurt it the most.
The Haryana in-charge, Dipak Babaria has made it amply clear that Members of Parliament would not be contesting the Assembly polls, thereby ruling both Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala out of the reckoning. The obvious inference of this declaration is that the high command has entrusted the primary responsibility of leading the party in the elections to former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda.
The Congress screening committee has had several rounds of meetings and is yet to declare the list of selected candidates. Probably, the announcement may take a few more days since the Central Election Committee’s meeting has been scheduled for Monday. The delay would amount to giving the candidates less time to be in the field since the majority of them along with their supporters have been campaigning in the capital, and meeting the relevant senior leaders.
This suspense could have ended had the Congress conducted the exercise earlier. But the last-minute decisions have become a norm in the Congress and in these elections, the demand is very high, since the perception of victory favours the party. Ajay Maken, who heads the screening committee, has done his work very meticulously, and after surveys and consultations, is likely to present a list, which would be difficult to change.
What is working against the BJP is acute factionalism but more than that its own mistakes of creating a negative perception. Two things have happened in the past one week, which could go against the saffron brigade. Firstly, by writing to the Election Commission to change the polling date, the BJP created an impression that it was reluctant to go into the contest.
Secondly, the public declaration of the case against Bhupinder Singh Hooda, where the Enforcement Directorate gave a press release stating that his assets had been attached, has led to a perception that this was being done because the BJP was losing. It is natural that properties get attached if such a case is registered but the timing so far as politics goes was perhaps not correct.
Yes, there is a huge anti-incumbency against the BJP in the state where it has been in power for the past ten years. However, what is hurting it is that many of its leaders are not happy with the treatment given to them and therefore are reluctant partners in the campaign.
The farmers’ agitation has also left its impact, and the BJP nominees would find it difficult to enter the rural areas where the resentment against the Central government is very pronounced. Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has urged the people to bring back his party and ensure that there was a double-engine sarkar which would lead to further development of Haryana.
The issues are manifold and unemployment and rising prices have been matters of great concern for the middle classes. Hooda has repeatedly accused the BJP of misgovernance in the past decade and has flagged the poor law and order situation in the state as also a major issue. On top of that several BJP state leaders have openly expressed their resentment against the leadership and thus their participation could be half-hearted.
In this kind of scenario, the Congress has to first ensure that its distribution of tickets is right. Secondly, the party must restrain its supporters from gloating over an impending victory, and instead work on the ground, thus not allowing overconfidence to harm its prospects in the long run.
The 70 paar slogan should not become counter-productive since people would always be wary of voting those who are arrogant and could use the brute majority to subvert their will. The BJP has been in power with the combination of anti-Jat communities, many of whom are now distancing themselves because they find that there has been a gap in the delivery. The Congress too is keen on accommodating as many castes as possible in their lists and thus while realizing that the strong Jat community stood with it and Hooda, the emphasis would be to re-assure the entire population with a promise of good and fair governance.
Haryana is next door to Delhi and it is natural that the elections there would be keenly watched by the residents of the capital as well, as many of them also have houses in nearby Gurgaon and Faridabad. The Congress is in pole position but needs to negotiate all the turns and twists to keep that status. Between us.