NEW DELHI: These operations open a new dimension of warfare wherein the target country or the organisation can be subjected to heavy casualties by the clandestine arming of day to day devices.
THE INCIDENTS
The Hezbollah and Lebanon were shocked on 17 September by an unprecedented attack when pagers belonging to its members exploded near simultaneously, killing 12 personnel, injuring over 2,800 (including the Iranian ambassador) with more than 170 in critical condition. The remotely controlled explosions were repeated on 18 September through walkie-talkies (nine killed and over 300 injured) indicating that penetration into Hezbollah’s communication network was much deeper than what the group would have imagined.
Various media sources have reported that the explosions were the result of a joint operation between Israel’s intelligence service, Mossad, and the Israeli military. While Israel did not comment, both Lebanon and Hezbollah have blamed it for the attack. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate, Lebanon has termed it as “criminal Israeli aggression” and Iran is referring to it as “Israeli terrorism”.
This unprecedented incident exposed the vulnerability and extent to which the communication network of Hezbollah was compromised, following a series of pinpoint targeted assassinations against its commanders. This operation was executed a day after the Israeli cabinet officially added a new goal to its multi-front war of returning thousands of Israelis evacuated from northern Israel due to attacks by Hezbollah to their homes, signifying the intention of warding off threat from Hezbollah.
THE PROGNOSIS
As a military operation, it was a complex, covert operation and an exceptional intelligence operation including HUMINT, brilliantly executed by the agencies involved in it. It involved not only an intrusion in the communication network of Hezbollah and possibly penetration into its cadres, but also an access to such low technology devices like pagers and walkie-talkies of its members, packing them with explosive and remotely controlled devices to ignite them remotely to explode at desired time simultaneously. The impact of the explosion was certainly beyond the damages caused by explosion due to overheating of lithium batteries by possible cyber-attack.
It has been reported by the New York Times that Israel had packed explosives along with a remote controlled switch inside a batch of pagers ordered from Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo consigned for Hezbollah. Gold Apollo has clarified that the pagers which exploded in Lebanon, were not manufactured by them but by a European company, BAC, under a licensing agreement that allowed the use of the Gold Apollo brand. These pagers, imported by Lebanon about five months ago, had small explosive materials planted in them, likely by the European manufacturer or another party before distribution, which would be a subject of investigation further.
THE IMPACT
Besides the actual casualties, this incident will put a deterrence in the minds of Hezbollah cadres that any communication device which they use can be risky. They were not using smartphones to avoid the risk of being tracked, but with pagers and walkie-talkies targeted, they will find it difficult to execute operations which require constant communication and coordination. It’s fair to assume that Hezbollah will discard the remaining pagers and walkie-talkies of that consignment, move on to alternate mode of communications and all the groups of “Axis of Resistance” will carry out a thorough check of their devices in use and cracks in their security architecture, but it will certainly impose caution on all of them. It will certainly cause some disruption and dislocation among Hezbollah fighters and boost the morale of the IDF and Mossad, after being under domestic criticism for long.
This attack in Lebanon is the next step in the escalation ladder in the Middle East, as an expansion of war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and Israeli aggression in West Bank and Syria, shifting focus towards a more formidable adversary in the north. Hezbollah has vowed revenge, Iran is yet to respond to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in its territory, and Houthis are getting bolder with hypersonic missile strike and some footprints in Syria, apart from disruptions in the Red Sea.
THE FUTURE
Military strategists across the globe will analyse this operation as complex, clandestine, unconventional and covert, with the advantage of plausible deniability. These operations open a new dimension of warfare wherein the target country or the organisation can be subjected to heavy casualties by the clandestine arming of day to day devices. Earlier, cyber-warfare was known to be non-kinetic and non-contact warfare focused on disabling networks, stealing data, or spreading misinformation and such actions. However, this new form of attack introduces a kinetic dimension and contact element where innovative cyber operations cause physical damage or destruction.
The last few days will be remembered in the history of warfare for merging the lines between cyber and contact warfare, the lethality of a new dimension of cyber-attacks, and integration of the Internet of Things (IoT) and connected devices in military and civilian infrastructure, making them potential targets for cyber-attacks. This will enlarge the target list of opponents to include civilians and infrastructure through their digital devices. The front lines could be everywhere, from battlefield to smart homes to mobile communication systems.
These incidents also open up a debate on the morality and legality of these operations as the innocent looking devices can reach many who are not involved in the conflict, but may become a casualty as has been the case with two children in Lebanon. The UNSC seems to be deliberating on it now, having failed to formulate any worthwhile rules for cyber and related warfare so far.
CONCLUSION
In essence, the emergence of kinetic cyber-attacks marks a turning point in warfare, where digital attacks can result in real-world destruction, making the cyber domain an equally critical and dangerous theatre of conflict. With the advantage of plausible deniability, “kinetic cyber operations” will emerge as a new and effective force multiplier for military operations.
Governments and militaries will need to rethink their cyber-security strategies, as attacks could now have both digital and physical consequences. This will require tighter security on both military and civilian communication systems, digital penetration and imports from potential adversaries.
As for the ongoing conflict, Israel may have shocked the Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance with its innovative and effective kinetic cyber operations, but it has expanded the war in a manner that none of its borders is safe.
Major General (Dr) S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst. The views expressed are personal views of the author, who retains the copyright.