NEW DELHI: The Jammu division of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which has 43 Assembly seats, could see a neck to neck fight on around 25 Assembly seats between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress-NC alliance.
According to several leaders in the Jammu division, the remaining 18 seats (out of the 43) seem to be forgone conclusion as the Congress is sitting firm on around half a dozen seats and BJP could readily take about a dozen seats.
A political observer said, “In the Jammu division, there are no local parties that have any grip in any constituency. There are only four parties present- BJP, Congress, National Conference (NC), and People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Moreover, PDP and NC have considerable presence only in the regions close to the Kashmir Valley. In the Hindi heartland of Jammu, only Congress and BJP are major parties.”
Additionally, Jammu district has 11 Assembly constituencies, with BJP winning nine of those seats in 2014. However, political analysts suggest that both parties are currently weak in Jammu, and the one that is relatively stronger will likely secure more seats.
A political analyst based in Jammu stated, “People are generally dissatisfied with how the region is administered by the central government. Just as those in Kashmir desire a political entity to lead them, the people of Jammu also want a state government they can hold accountable. There is some discontent with the BJP, but a significant portion of voters still believe that the BJP is a better option for them compared to the NC, PDP, or Congress.”
According to political observers, Jammu is one of the regions where Congress’ cadre has eroded to such an extent that its state unit president cannot implement its decisions on ground.
A political analyst said, “In Chenab Valley which has eight Assembly seats, all of the Congress cadre shifted to Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party, and in other places as well, Congress is at its lowest.
The close battle between the two national parties is in the four districts of Jammu division, Doda, Kishtwar, Reasi, Rajouri, Reasi and Poonch who consists of 16 Assembly seats. The experts suggest that if Congress-NC alliance can pocket more than 10 seats in the region, it would be difficult for BJP to form the government.
The remaining 27 seats in the Jammu division, located across the four districts of Jammu, Kathua, Samba, and Udhampur, give BJP a strong advantage. Political analysts believe this is the region that the saffron camp is relying on.
“They can easily take more than 15 seats from the 27 seats. They just need to campaign solidly as the polling is yet to happen in this region”, a political analyst said.
The experts further believe that BJP is capable of pulling off victory on several seats at the last moment, as there election machinery is robust and the hierarchy of their organisation functions smoothly.
A political analyst said, “BJP has a strong cadre in Jammu, whereas Congress does not. BJP can develop personal relationship with voters on grassroots, as they have sufficient people for it. But Congress cannot, they will have to rely on narrative only. If the BJP anticipates winning a certain number of seats that are viewed as having a 50-50 chance in the region, they have the potential to achieve that.
But at the same time if Congress is expecting these seats, there is high probability they won’t win them. The grand old party has to battle the BJP ground cadre and their narrative till the end, and keep their momentum high to defeat the BJP on their vulnerable seats which is difficult.”