New Delhi: Congress in Jharkhand is seeing a steep decline in its popularity, suggesting that the party has lost political momentum in the state. This is expected to impact the outcome of the upcoming Assembly elections and help the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gain more electoral ground in the state which has 90 Assembly seats. There is an understanding among ruling alliance leaders that the aggression that was seen among tribals in Lok Sabha elections, has withered to some extent and if not revived, the alliance could face a shameful defeat.
A leader holding a constitutional position in the state said, “If the current trends are believed, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha cannot go beyond 22 seats in the Assembly elections. JMM is a state party and it has all its stakes in the Jharkhand, therefore, it will do its best to overcome anti-incumbency and work hard to win as many seats as possible to form the government. But since Congress is its alliance partner and a huge chunk of seats will be shared with them, they may prove to be a weak link. Congress has only around seven safe seats for now, which would be a huge decline from their 2019 performance when they scored victory over 16 Assembly seats. If the ruling alliance fails to form the government, it will only be because of Congress.”
However, according to party insiders, the fault lines appear on both the sides as there has been no focus on the coordination between the two alliance partners. Congress leaders claim that the party has yet not marked out a strategy to contest the elections and moreover there is no planning as to how the different political challenges should be approached.
A Congress leader said, “After the change of leadership in the state, the new state chief Keshav Mahto Kamlesh is doing just fine. But it seems that there is no clarity as to how the state unit has to be run and what activities have to be conducted sufficiently. Kamlesh was advised not to change the executive body as there is very less time left for elections. So, he has kept the already existing body intact but the party hasn’t been able to generate the momentum. It hasn’t been able to mobilise its own cadre yet.”
Another Congress office bearer said, “Ghulam Ahmed Mir is contesting elections and at the same time he is the general secretary in charge. Is he going to focus on his own Assembly seat in Kashmir or is he going to think about Jharkhand? He knows his political existence will flourish when he wins his own seat first. The Congress is running on its own. There is not even a tiny focus on straightening the administrative functioning of the organisation. If the party wins, it will win because people wanted to vote for it, not because the party worked hard to come into power.”
A political analyst based in Jharkhand said, “Congress party has switched its focus towards Other Backward Classes (OBC) of which the state has more than 45% population, and that is the reason Keshav Mahto Kamlesh who is an OBC, was appointed as the state unit chief. Now there is a presumption that the tribal population will vote for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in droves and furthermore, it is presumed that out of 28 Schedule Tribe (ST) seats, JMM can pocket more than 20 seats. With the Muslim Tribal combination (which adds up to more than 40% of population, with Muslims being around 15% and Tribals 26%), Congress wants to add one more section of population and that is OBC, which they think can help them against all odds and make them retain the state.”