Conspiracy theories are rife about an over-confident Cleverly team ‘lending’ votes to other candidates in order to get their preferred opposition on the ballot; unsubstantiated blame is being attributed left, right and centre.
London: The Conservative leadership contest took a surprise turn on Wednesday when the centrist optimistic conservative stance taken by James Cleverly was thrown out by 83 MPs, leaving just Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick in the final round for Leader, to be decided by the Conservative membership.
Conspiracy theories are rife about an over-confident Cleverly team “lending” votes to other candidates in order to get their preferred opposition on the ballot; unsubstantiated blame is being attributed left, right and centre.
Many were surprised because on Tuesday evening following Tom Tugendhat’s elimination, it was almost a forgone conclusion that Cleverly would be in the final two, giving the membership the option of a centrist and a right-wing candidate. If more moderate Conservative members supported either Cleverley or Tugendhat then how can they now suddenly agree with the more loudly radical Badenoch or the gunning-for-Reform Jenrick? The fact that the two candidates on the right of centre are facing off and are thought to be fostered from the same behind the scenes faction, gives credence to the theory that the same old forces are conniving to elect the Leader of the Opposition, making a mockery of democracy and the innocent membership who have no idea of the manoeuvres at play.
The new leader will tasked with renewing/uniting the party to counter the Reform UK party, which is storming ahead with 90,000 new members and 2 newly elected local councillors. What is most likely is a conflict between Reform and the Tories for the same ground. The Conservative territory has traditionally been “right-wing” but over the past decade liberalism and wokery has steered Conservatives so much to the left they are unrecognisable; at some point the Tories are going to be obliged to define their ground, how does history, British culture conservation, being British and a sense of belonging fit into today’s conservatism.
Rupert Lowe, the charismatic Reform MP for Great Yarmouth is expert at articulating the above, he pinpointed what matters to Britons today; his speech at the Reform Conference was punctuated with relevant references from history, philosophy and UK’s political past.
However, there is not much ideological space between Badenoch and Jenrick, but their approaches and personalities differ. Kemi Badenoch is rather like a TV anchor asking many of the right questions but also prepared to throw a random hand grenade into the conversation (such as locking up civil servants and excessive maternity pay), she is not very policy orientated yet. Robert Jenrick is the archetypal generic politician; his ideology and policy have been adaptable earning him the sobriquet Robert Generic. Neither has great experience of leading a party, in 3-4 years it is unlikely either will be following their campaign messages during their leadership bids today.
This week also saw the launch of Boris Johnson’s political memoir “Unleashed”, in which Johnson questions what the world might look like if he were still Prime Minister. Unlikely, as it seems there are some who still fawn over and desire the return of Boris Johnson, who they believe is solely capable of winning the next general election for the Tories. Others believe if Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe were to campaign in those constituencies that fawn over Johnson, their votes would be transferrable to Reform.
The Director General of MI5 spoke at the Counter Terrorism Operations Centre in London, about the current national security threats facing the UK. Ken McCallum began and concluded with his appreciation and praise for all those involved in detecting and disrupting terrorists, the task is intricate and requires dedication and courage, there are priorities and constraints, and the outcomes are unpredictable; he called to arms citizens with whom this resonated.
DG McCallum announced ll Five Eyes Counter Terrorism agencies are working in an unprecedented joined-up capability with UK agencies to counter the increasingly complex and interconnected state threats to UK’s security.
MI5’s CT work remains split between 75% Islamist extremism and 25% extreme ring-wing terrorism but within these broad headings there is a “dizzying range of ideologies and beliefs”, mixed with previous grievances, conspiracy theories,online hate and disinformation that present confused individuals. Shockingly 13% of MI5 investigations are involved with under 18 years old, who are particularly receptive to online right-wing propaganda, while online radicalisation targets both types of extremism but the anonymity makes it a challenge to detect existential plots. The threat level for UK including Northern Ireland remains at “SUBSTANTIAL”.
The conflict in the Middle East has brought home a new transnational threat froma reduced Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, DG McCallum cited the March attack by ISKP on Crocus City Hall in Moscow as an example of how terrorist organisations might operate in Europe.
On top of the above there is the additional increased threat from autocratic regimes ( Russia, Iran, China) who rely on spies and advanced cyber operations, to target government information, technology, democracy, journalists and defenders of human rights; in just the past year investigations have risen by 43%. McCallum warned that Russian and Iranian state actors had turned to “criminal proxies for theirdirty work”, he said the GRU are intent on creating “mayhem on British and European streets”, already arson and sabotage have been identified.
Since January 2022, twenty Iranian plots have been thwarted and MI5 is prepared for further attempts. Scrutiny of the internet is critical for spotting would-be terrorists; he confirmed that privacy, encryption and lawful access can co-exist in the interest of national security.
The DG put China in a separate category because of the economic relationship that exists, not that there are not risks to be managed even here. Addressing Ministers, the Public and Private sectors the DG cautioned that the choices and risks are complexto secure UK’s competitive advantages, and should be approached intelligently to support growth without undermining democracy. He encouraged those in academia, technology and business to examineadvice given by the National Cyber Security Centre and National Protective Security Authority, who offerjoint- guidance against espionage, sabotage and malware amongst other threats.
It is reported that Keir Starmer is holding National Security Council meetings once a week, which is a step forward as since David Cameron no PM has held regular meetings. Attending are Defence, Foreign and Home Secretaries, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Ken McCallum of MI5 and Richard Moore of MI6, NSA Sir Tim Barrow, General Sir Roland Walker, Madeleine Alessandri- the new Chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee and Morgan McSweeney No 10 Chief of Staff.