China has not done anything till date which should make India trust it.
New Delhi: There is much speculation on the “thaw” in India-China relations post the “agreement” between the two countries on patrolling the Line of Actual Control between Depsang and Demchok, which will lead to disengagement by both sides, thus restoring the 2020 status quo along the LAC.
This announcement was followed by the handshake between the leaders of the two countries—Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping—and a bilateral meeting, the first in five years, at the BRICS Summit in Russia’s Kazan. “The two sides should strengthen communication and cooperation, enhance strategic mutual trust, and facilitate each other’s pursuit of development aspirations,” read the Chinese readout. Even if the messaging implies India-China relations are back on track, it is not yet time to open the champagne bottle, if at all.
The fundamental problem is the nature of Communist China, which is completely focused on becoming the world’s numero uno power by displacing the United States and for that its influence operations as well as aggressive behaviour continue unabated all over the world. Even after the initiation of the “thaw”, there is no movement on China’s part to dismantle the dual use infrastructure along the LAC. Thus China continues to pose a huge security threat to India, which is, at best, trying to play catch up on its side of the LAC. While the border may see some relative peace for the time being, China will continue to oppose India’s candidature for the membership of the UNSC.
It will continue with its support for Pakistani terror against India, as well as adding fuel to the insurgency in the Northeast—and this is a small list. So, China’s bad behaviour with India will continue. In fact, China will use this thaw as an opportunity to ramp up trade activities by dumping cheap goods on India and kill India’s indigenous industry, unless checked. The price of Chinese investment will be high and the decision to keep Chinese industry out of critical sectors like telecom should not be reversed. China has not done anything till date which should make India trust it.
So this thaw should be seen as China buying time so that it can concentrate its efforts elsewhere to displace the US as the premier world power. Any turmoil with its neighbours will not give China that space. For India too this is about buying time, by preparing the ground to counter an aggressive neighbour like China. The bottom line is, trust is a word that does not exist in the lexicon when it comes to China. What this thaw implies at best is the absence of war, but it’s definitely not peace.