Post the Haryana results, the optics are already in the BJP’s favour.
New Delhi: Winning the Maharashtra election is as crucial for the Congress, as Haryana was for the BJP. If the Congress and its allies fail to wrest the state from the BJP (and its allies) then the latter will claim that the recent Lok Sabha results were an aberration and the party retained its winning streak. Post the Haryana results, the optics are already in the BJP’s favour. Before Haryana, political pundits had written off not only that state but also the elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand against the BJP. But now, all that is changed and once again, the TV debates are all about the BJP’s winning ways. It is the domino effect of the Haryana win. One could sense it in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s walk—and talk—when he took the dais at the BJP party headquarters post the Haryana and J&K results. Compare that with the speech he made post the Lok Sabha results. One could say it took him three months to get his mojo back.
The Congress fortunes seem to be lurching from election to election. A win gives its leader the credibility Rahul Gandhi needs, while a loss has the detractors baring their fangs again. Much more than Modi who has an impressive track record to back the occasional loss, Rahul desperately needs a string of wins. More importantly, he has to deal with the sceptics within. It’s not just the BJP he is dealing with; he first has to convince the allies in the I.N.D.I.A bloc that he has what it takes. The Lok Sabha results gave him that spring in credibility even though a closer look would reveal that in the states where the Congress took the BJP on in a one on one contest, there were mixed results. But in states where the Congress was backed by its allies, the I.N.D.I.A bloc did well, such as Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and even West Bengal though there the Congress was not in an alliance with the TMC.
The I.N.D.I.A bloc allies have already changed their body language towards the Congress, sensing its diminishing bargaining power. The evening of the Haryana results, Akhilesh Yadav, the Samajwadi Party chief went ahead and announced candidates for 6 of the 10 bypolls that are due in Uttar Pradesh without consulting the Congress. The point to be noted here is that he would have done exactly the same had the results been any different and the Congress had swept Haryana. He is miffed at the fact that the Congress did not offer the Samajwadi Party any seats in Haryana, but yet expects its ally to yield seats of its choice in Uttar Pradesh. This is not how coalition politics works. The Congress Party’s allies in Maharashtra too are showing the same sense of impatience. The Congress is contesting the state polls along with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP under the banner of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The MVA had also contested the recent Lok Sabha polls under the same banner, wherein the Congress won 13 seats (contested 17), the Shiv Sena (UBT) won 9 of the 21 it contested, while Pawar’s NCP won 8 of the 10 it fought. Clearly, the Congress had a better strike rate than the UBT, but this has not stopped Uddhav Thackeray from staking claim for the CM’s post. Not surprisingly, local Congress leaders in the state are against this and claim that theirs is a pan Maharashtra party, while the UBT is restricted to certain pockets in and around Mumbai. But what is surprising is a rumour that is doing the rounds that privately Rahul has assured Uddhav that he would be the CM if the alliance were to win. If this is true then clearly Rahul’s larger goal is to keep the MVA together and focus on defeating the BJP rather than furthering the interests of his own party. This could also be the need of the hour. Having said this, should the alliance win, one cannot rule out Sharad Pawar’s own ambitions, for this could well be the 83-year-old’s last election and thereby his last chance of ensuring his daughter’s political future.
But these are calculations for a later time, and that too if the alliance manages to wrest the state away from the BJP-led Mahayuti bloc. Currently, the MVA has decided to contest an equal number of seats with each party getting 85 (even though the Congress had initially demanded 100 keeping its Lok Sabha performance in mind). The rest will be divided amongst allies (and yes, the Samajwadi Party will get a representation) and independents.
On the other side is the Mahayuti alliance with Eknath Shinde as the sitting Chief Minister along with Ajit Pawar’s NCP and the BJP. Shinde’s party won 7 of the 15 Lok Sabha seats it contested, while Ajit Pawar contested 4 but could win only one. Here it is the BJP that had an abysmal showing, managing to win only 9 of the 28 seats it contested.
Yet it is the BJP that seems to have the upper hand in seat sharing, for sources claim that the seat sharing formula that is being finalised gives the BJP around 100 to 150 seats, the Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena about 85-90 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 50 to 55 seats. Moreover, while the alliance would be fighting with Eknath Shinde as the sitting Chief Minister, but should the Mahayuti win there is a possibility that the BJP may replace him with its own candidate. Again, there are those who argue against saying that the current model suits the BJP, with Eknath Shinde as the face but all the key ministries with the party.
Once the seat sharing is finalised it would be time to sharpen strategy. Being in government the Mahayuti has the advantage and has already made its move, announcing a slew of welfare schemes for all sections, especially the woman voter with its Ladli Behna Yojana (not unlike what Shivraj Singh Chauhan did in Madhya Pradesh). It would be interesting to see the tone and tenor of the Congress campaign and the kind of issues Rahul Gandhi raises in the state that houses the country’s financial capital. In more ways than one, Maharashtra will impact our national political narrative. Not to mention individual party fortunes—be it the shifting equations within the I.N.D.I.A bloc or the BJP’s dependence on the RSS.