Who leaked intelligence on Israel’s escalation plan?

Panaji, Goa: The recent leak of top-secret US intelligence documents online has sparked questions about whether one of the Five Eyes (FVEY) intelligence alliance members might have been involved in a deliberate attempt to derail Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military plans. The leaked documents, attributed to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, indicate that Israel is actively positioning military assets for a possible strike in response to Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack. Given that these documents were shareable within the Five Eyes network—comprising the US, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—speculation is growing that one of these allies could be responsible for leaking the information to prevent further escalation.
The documents, dated October 15 and October 16, marked top secret, first surfaced last Friday (October 18) on the Telegram account called “Middle East Spectator” and rapidly spread across channels popular among Iranians. The first document, titled “Israel: Air Force continues preparations for strike on Iran and conducts a second large-force employment exercise,” outlines Israel’s air force readiness and ongoing military exercises. The second, “Israel: Defense Forces continue key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity almost certainly for a strike on Iran,” details the preparations underway, pointing to an imminent military operation.
The leak occurred amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, following Iran’s launch of approximately 200 ballistic missiles targeting Israel on October 1. The missile strike was reportedly in retaliation for prior Israeli military actions in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah leaders and a July explosion in Tehran, which resulted in the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. In response to the missile barrage, Israel heightened its military readiness, with officials preparing for a possible retaliatory strike. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stern warning to Iran, stating, “Anyone who tries to harm Israel’s citizens will pay a heavy price,” signalling a strong stance amid the escalating conflict.
The Pentagon, along with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), are working together to investigate the source of the recent leak of sensitive intelligence documents. US officials are exploring various possibilities, including the potential for a cyber-attack or as many believe an intentional leak from within the intelligence community itself.
The leak of these documents could be interpreted as a strategic move to make Israel’s military plans public, thereby undermining Netanyahu’s escalation strategy by exposing it to the world and potentially creating diplomatic or operational challenges for Israel.
Given that the documents were shareable within the Five Eyes network, it’s plausible that any member state could have accessed them and possibly leaked the information. The Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance is built on a foundation of trust, where member states share sensitive information for collective security. However, if a member did indeed leak the documents, it would signal a serious breach of that trust and indicate growing divisions within the alliance.
A leak from a Five Eyes member would suggest that some allies are so concerned about Netanyahu’s plans and the Biden administration’s handling of the situation that they are willing to take drastic measures to prevent a potential escalation in the Middle East. It raises the possibility that a close ally might see the situation as dangerous enough to warrant leaking sensitive information to influence the course of events.
The potential involvement of a Five Eyes member in the leak could reflect deep frustrations over US policy toward the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Netanyahu’s preparations for a military strike, coupled with President Joe Biden’s perceived reluctance to pressure Israel into de-escalation, have caused concern among some US allies. The leak may represent an extreme step taken by an ally to force a diplomatic reassessment, aiming to prevent what could become the largest military conflict in the Middle East since World War II.
Savio Rodrigues is Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Goa Chronicle.