Trump’s resounding victory speaks volumes not only about him as a politician and a leader but also about his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris and American society as a whole.
On 6 November 2024, Donald J. Trump made history by becoming the first President since 1897, after Grover Cleveland, to win a second non-consecutive term to serve as the 47th President of the United States. In the face of numerous legal challenges, he has registered the greatest political comeback in more than a century. Trump’s resounding victory (it didn’t turn out to be a nail-biting contest as predicted by the media) speaks volumes not only about him as a politician and a leader but also about his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris and the American society as a whole.
Notwithstanding his unpredictability, erratic behaviour, misdemeanour, use of offensive language and questionable financial dealings, Trump is a charismatic leader with deep self-belief, tenacity, unshaken confidence and enviable ability to inspire his supporters. Since his loss in November 2020, he continued to maintain that the election was stolen and court cases against him constituted orchestrated witch-hunt. And in spite of record setting two impeachments, 24 felony charges, conviction in two criminal cases, sex scandals, unauthorised transfer of classified documents, Trump didn’t crumble; he continued to fight against all odds and eventually won the day.
His popularity and mystic hold on his diehard supporters didn’t diminish. A Perfect Teflon man; political opponents’ accusations didn’t stick on him nor did the criticism by his former colleagues: Vice President Mike Pence, his second Chief of Staff John Kelly, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defence James Mattis and Mark Ericson, his second and third NSA, H.R. McMaster and John Bolton and his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen Mark Miley (Retd) and others. For his admirers, he could do no wrong.
And what does his re-election say about the American society? In South Asia: in Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh we have had woman leaders who led their country for years. In the Western world too, several women leaders have headed the government. But not in the USA? Obviously, the majority of macho, alpha American males aren’t still mentally prepared to accept a woman as the President and the Supreme Commander. Kamala Harris faced double whammy: she is a woman that too Black and of Asian and Caribbean origin.
What about American democracy and the much touted exceptionalism? When someone who allegedly instigated an insurrection at the Capitol, the citadel of American democracy, on 6 January 2021, and tried to overturn the result of an election gets elected as the President in spite of all the legal cases pending against him, American exceptionalism has a lot to explain.
In the first debate with Donald Trump on 10 September on ABC, Kamala came out a clear winner; more articulate with well argued, coherent and rational answers without losing her cool and not stooping low like Trump’s replies about immigrants eating dogs, cats, pets. She appealed for votes for saving democracy, rejecting divisive narrative and turning a new page for a new better and unifying tomorrow. She flagged the abortion rights of women, promised raising taxes on the super-rich and helping lower income and middle-class people, small businesses and daily wage earners; she even supported unions in certain sectors. But as shown by the election results, her narrative didn’t resonate much with the voters. Trump supporters, on the other hand, were prepared to forgive him for all his transgressions on democratic norms.
Did the following contribute to Kamala Harris’s defeat?
A: Besides the gender bias, the biggest reason for Kamala’s defeat was President Biden. Yes, he did drop out from the race reluctantly and endorsed Kamala but it was pretty late; she got just 115 days; it was a race against time. With an approval rating of 40%, Biden was an unpopular President; all anti-incumbency flak faced by Biden turned against Kamala. She couldn’t break from the Biden Presidency; when asked on the ABC (The View) what she would do differently, she couldn’t think of anything particular.
B: Though the US economy, at macro level is doing better than most European economies, inflation is down, unemployment is very low, rising housing cost and grocery prices hurt the grassroots; Trump’s simple question: were you better off four years back was a nostalgic reminder of the tail end of his presidency for millions of voters.
C: Anti immigrants fear created by Trump calling them rapists, criminals taking away local jobs and his pledge to deport two million immigrants, though sounding appalling appealed to a large number of voters.
D: The Democratic Party has lost pulse of the ordinary working class; they weren’t impressed by mega endorsements of Harris by the Hollywood celebrities: Oprah Winfrey, Lady Gaga, Beyonce, Jennifer Lopez and Taylor Swift and others; they felt alienated and voted against Harris.
E: While the male, both White and Black, voted more for Trump (54%), Hispanic and Latino support for Harris dropped as did the support of Indian Americans.
F: Notwithstanding serious efforts by Harris camp towards the end, the seven swing states overwhelmingly voted for Trump.
G: Handling of the ongoing conflict between Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran, especially the killing of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza enraged Arab Americans; they voted against Harris.
H: Though more women voted for her, Harris’ emphasis on women’s reproductive rights didn’t turn out to be a game changer.
Though Trump’s threat to impose 10-20 % tariffs on all imports and tighten inflow of immigrants (H1B visas) might impact India too, thanks to the existing bipartisan support for good relations with India and the warmth, bonhomie and personal chemistry with PM Modi enjoys with Trump, we should remain cautiously optimistic about further strengthening of the multidimensional bilateral relations.
Trump’s possible withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement will be a serious blow. And his intensified tariff war with China will be bad for China and the global economy.
Going by his first term, Russia should breathe easy, Trump’s opposition to Biden like support for Ukraine might pave the way for a negotiated ceasefire. But a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza looks unlikely given Trump’s pro-Israeli policies. But he knows the Abraham Accord supported by him won’t sell unless he brings an end to the conflict in West Asia.
Not a conventional politician but a transactional deal maker, he is game for disrupting systems and relationships guided by his motto: America First. The WTO might become dysfunctional. NATO may get jitters. Iranian leadership might have nightmares.
With a massive victory, winning both popular and electoral votes and control of the Senate and near control of the Congress, there aren’t any checks and balances on Trump. If Elon Musk’s presence on the stage at the victory speech was any indication, the corporate sector might exercise a bigger influence on the Trump administration.
Let us see if Trump can live up to his much-hyped message to “make America great again”.
* Surendra Kumar is a former ambassador of India.