The I.N.D.I.A bloc is facing the risk of disintegration primarily because of Rahul Gandhi’s stance in the LS.
NEW DELHI: The Congress, which had started dreaming of toppling the Narendra Modi government at the Centre by splitting the NDA after its small “victory” of not letting the BJP get a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha elections six months ago, is now struggling to keep intact the I.N.D.I.A bloc, which it leads, as allies grow impatient with it.
The I.N.D.I Alliance is facing the risk of disintegration primarily because of the stance that Rahul Gandhi is taking in the Lok Sabha as the Leader of the Opposition. Rather than focusing on critical issues, Rahul Gandhi and the Congress are centring their politics on the Adani controversy, which is causing friction within the alliance, particularly during the final week of the winter session. Signs of a potential breakup are emerging, with some constituent parties likely to chart their own course in the coming days. Notably, key parties like the Trinamool Congress and the Left have already begun to diverge from the collective path.
The Left parties have distanced themselves from Congress on the issues of a port being developed by the Adani Group in Kerala. Both the Kerala government and the BJP, which agrees with the Left parties on this issue, have long supported the port project. Even Congress leaders in Kerala are backing the port because it will help the state economically. However, in Delhi, Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, and the Congress leadership have taken a strong stand against the Adani Group.
Kerala is crucial for Congress, especially as elections approach. Among the states heading to the polls soon, Kerala remains the only state where Congress sees a glimmer of hope. The party has little to look forward to in the rest of the Hindi belt states or other regions. Elections are scheduled in Delhi and Bihar next year, followed by Kerala. Congress lost the previous election in Kerala because of poor strategy and internal divisions.
In the past five years, Kerala’s political dynamics have shifted significantly. The BJP has gained a foothold, and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan of the CPM has strengthened his position, openly opposing the Congress. The Left alliance is aware that a stronger BJP would hurt their interests, which is why they have consistently resisted Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra from contesting from Kerala. The political scenario in the state has now turned confrontational, leaving Congress in a precarious position. Over the past five years, the party has lost its strong leadership base in Kerala.
Ramesh Chennithala and K.C. Venugopal, the key Congress leaders from Kerala still there, are now active in central politics. However, there is intense rivalry between the two. Venugopal, currently the number two leader in the Congress, serves as the party’s organization general secretary and maintains close ties with the Gandhi family. However, roday, Congress is as weakened at the national level as it is in Kerala.
If Rahul Gandhi and the Congress leadership fail to focus on the states, the party’s prospects in Kerala could deteriorate to the same level as in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Rahul’s apparent indifference to state-level issues has led to repeated setbacks for Congress. Losses in states like Haryana and Maharashtra have pushed the party further into obscurity.
These defeats have also unsettled Congress allies. The outcome of the Maharashtra elections, in particular, has shaken their confidence. Many allies who had hoped for a return to power alongside Congress are now apprehensive. This unease became evident during the winter session when the TMC openly questioned Rahul’s leadership and distanced itself from Congress’ agenda. Subsequently, the Left parties also parted ways, citing Rahul’s rigid stance on the Adani issue. Earlier, Rahul Gandhi targeted the Ambani group along with Adani, but he no longer does so. While the Gandhi family did not attend the recent Ambani wedding, Congress treasurer Ajay Maken represented them at the event. Despite Adani and Ambani groups being involved in major projects in Congress-ruled states, Rahul Gandhi’s opposition to these groups remains puzzling. Rahul appears to be following his own path, ignoring issues concerning the common man, which is causing dissatisfaction among allies. The allies want to focus on people-centric issues. In Maharashtra, the defeat has created chaos, leaving Uddhav Thackeray with no option but to return to his Hindutva politics, which, however, has made another I.N.D.I.A partner Samajwadi Party unhappy. Sharad Pawar, at this stage in his career, also seems to have few alternatives. If Rahul Gandhi continues on this course, the party could face a serious crisis.
Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party has grown increasingly dissatisfied with the Congress on multiple fronts. SP leaders have understood that there is no point following the Congress’ path. The recent byelections have shown that the Congress does not have any vote bank of its own. SP has been against the politics against Adani and Ambani from the very beginning. In the winter session, the distance between Congress and SP has increased over Sambhal, Adani and seat arrangement in Lok Sabha. In the Adani case, everyone is against Rahul Gandhi except AAP. Congress’ old ally RJD was also not in favour of opposing Adani and Ambani. Lalu Yadav had even gone to the Ambani wedding with his entire family. RJD’s sole concern now is next year’s Bihar Assembly elections. The RJD has become aware that the Congress will not bring anything to the table in Bihar if it fights either the Lok Sabha or Assembly elections in alliance with it.
Meanwhile, the Trinamool Congress is pushing to make Mamata Banerjee the head of the I.N.D.I Alliance, a demand that Congress is scoffing at. But considering the rate at which Rahul Gandhi is going, it will not be a surprise if more and more parties come out seeking a change in the leadership of the alliance, or even want to leave the alliance.