NEW DELHI: The decision of the US State Department to impose sanctions on four Pakistan based entities for their involvement in adding to the proliferation threat of Pakistan’s long-range missile development was taken while keeping the long term interest of Washington in mind, rather than that of India.
On 18 December, the US imposed sanctions on the Islamabad based National Development Complex (NDC), for acquiring items in furtherance of Pakistan’s long range ballistic missile program – including special vehicle chassis intended to be used as launch support equipment for ballistic missiles and missile testing equipment, Karachi based Akhtar and Sons Private Limited for supplying a range of equipment to Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program, Affiliates International, located in Karachi, for facilitating procurements of missile-applicable items for NDC and others in support of Pakistan’s ballistic missile program and the Karachi based Rockside Enterprise, for supplying range of equipment to Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program.
Earlier in April, in a similar move, the US State Department imposed sanctions on the Belarus-based Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant for supplying special vehicle chassis to Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program. Additionally, sanctions were placed on the China-based Xi’an Longde Technology Development Company Limited for supplying missile-related equipment, including a filament winding machine; Tianjin Creative Source International Trade Co. Ltd., another Chinese entity, for supplying stir welding equipment (used to manufacture propellant tanks for space launch vehicles) and a linear accelerator system; and Granpect Company Limited, another China-based company, for working closely with Pakistan to supply equipment for testing large-diameter rocket motors.
While responding to US’s recent sanctions, Pakistan said that it was “discriminatory” and put the region’s peace and security at risk and “have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond”. This statement by the Pakistan Foreign Ministry was put out to suggest that its missile systems were being developed solely while keeping India in mind.
While Pakistan Foreign Ministry claims that its missile development program is aimed at deterring and targeting India, it has not mentioned that it already possesses the capability to strike India with the Ghauri or Hatf-5 missiles, which have a range of 1,500 km and can thus cover the entire territory of India. This missile system, developed in close collaboration with North Korea, had its first test flight in April 1998 and is now a part of Pakistan’s missile arsenal. It is capable of carrying a payload of 700 kilograms.
The recent sanctions imposed by the US are likely intended to prevent Pakistan from further experimenting with and advancing two missile delivery systems that are still in the development stage: Ababeel and Shaheen III.
Ababeel, named after the miraculous birds mentioned in the Quran, is Pakistan’s first surface-to-surface medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), reportedly capable of carrying Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs). This three-stage, solid-fuel missile was first tested in January 2017 and has a claimed range of 2,200 km.
Shaheen III, with a claimed range of 2,750 km, is also still under development. Both of these missile systems, developed with the assistance of Chinese officials, are capable at the max of striking, as of now, the eastern parts of Africa. While still thousands of kilometers away from reaching the US mainland, they are capable of reaching Diego Garcia, a British Indian Ocean Territory where the United States maintains a significant military presence.
After the recent round of sanctions, US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer indirectly gave the reasons for the decision to sanction the Pakistani organizations.
Finer, while speaking to an audience at a private organization, said that Pakistan is developing long-range ballistic missile capabilities that eventually could allow it to strike targets outside of South Asia, including in the United States.
“Candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States. Pakistan has developed increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors. If these trends continue, Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States,” Finer said.
What is likely concerning Washington is the fact that the process of advancing missile technology typically follows a progression, building on previous capabilities and knowledge. Once a country has developed a missile with a certain range, it already possesses many of the key technological components, such as propulsion systems, guidance mechanisms, and structural designs. As a result, it can improve upon its design and capabilities with less time and effort.
Pakistan’s western missile bases are located at Chagai and Khuzdar in Balochistan, approximately 11,000 km straight-line distance from Washington, D.C. and roughly 10,000 km from New York and Boston.
As Pakistan progressed to develop Hatf-3 (with a range of 290 km) and Hatf-5 (with a range of 1,300 km), it was able to build on the success of Hatf-1, using improved technology and testing strategies. In advancing to longer-range systems like Shaheen-2 (with a range of 2,000 km) and Shaheen-3 (with a range of 2,750 km), many technological hurdles had already been overcome with previous missile systems.
Analysts tracking Pakistan’s “impressive” missile development program believe that if Islamabad continues to work on its missile program as it is doing now, it would have the capability to strike the US mainland within 5 to 8 years. This timeline was also confirmed by independent assessment models.
Since launching its missile program in the late 1980s, Pakistan has steadily advanced, achieving missile systems with a range of 2,500 km within 30 years, despite regular US sanctions. These sanctions, as evidenced by the development of Pakistan’s missile capabilities, have had little impact as China and Korea played a vital role in developing Pakistan’s missile arsenal.