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26 January: Prabowo Subianto is set for a defining visit to India

Editor's Choice26 January: Prabowo Subianto is set for a defining visit to India

Indonesia’s potential purchase of the BrahMos cruise missile and expanding economic ties signal a significant shift in the country’s strategic posture.

New Delhi: On 26 January 2025, India will host the 8th President of the Republic of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, as the chief guest for the country’s 76th Republic Day celebrations. This invitation represents the warmth of India’s diplomatic ties with Indonesia and the ongoing strategic realignment in the Indo-Pacific. Prabowo Subianto’s presence at this prestigious event symbolizes Jakarta’s renewed focus on strengthening defence, education, and economic development partnerships. This high-profile visit also highlights the complex trajectory of Prabowo’s own life story—marked by royal lineage, military service, political ups and downs, and a relentless determination to shape Indonesia’s future on his terms.
As Southeast Asia’s largest nation and a pivotal actor in the region’s affairs, Indonesia is redefining its role in a swiftly changing geopolitical environment. With concerns about China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea (SCS) intensifying, Indonesia and India find common ground in boosting maritime security, sovereignty, and regional stability. Indonesia’s potential purchase of the BrahMos cruise missile and expanding economic ties signal a significant shift in the country’s strategic posture.

PRABOWO’S ROYAL TIES AND MILITARY BEGINNINGS
Prabowo Subianto’s story is about a man whose lineage and early experiences destined him for a prominent role in Indonesian public life. Born into a family with partial aristocratic roots—often referred to as a “royal lineage” in local parlance—Prabowo became part of the powerful Suharto clan through marriage. He was once the son-in-law of Suharto, the military-backed President of Indonesia who ruled the nation with an iron hand for 31 years (1967-1998). This family connection introduced Prabowo to the core of Indonesian politics at a young age and provided a platform for his future career.
From the outset, Prabowo exhibited an inclination toward military service. After graduating from the Indonesian Military Academy, he pursued further training that reportedly included advanced courses abroad. However, the specific details of his training in the United States are a subject of debate and differing reports. Prabowo rose through the ranks to become a high-ranking army general, at one point commanding the army’s special forces and the prestigious Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad).
During the final years of Suharto’s regime, Indonesia faced turmoil on multiple fronts, including a separatist movement in East Timor (Timor-Leste today), economic crises, and demands for democratic reforms. Suharto’s government tasked Prabowo with helping to quell the uprising in East Timor, a mission that would later tarnish Prabowo’s reputation. Investigations by media and human rights groups linked him to alleged abuses during these operations, causing him to be labelled a human rights violator. The subsequent fall of Suharto in 1998 triggered the end of Prabowo’s high-profile military career. Not long after, he was discharged from service amid mounting scrutiny, and the United States placed him on a list of individuals prohibited from entering the country for 20 years until he eventually re-entered US politics’ good graces after becoming Indonesia’s Minister of Defence in 2019.

RISE IN POLITICS
Far from retreating into obscurity, Prabowo threw himself into national politics after his military career ended. In 2008, he established the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), positioning himself as a populist leader bent on reforming the country’s governance and economy. He courted a diverse base, from conservative Muslims to rural communities dissatisfied with the established political elites.
Between 2009 and 2019, Prabowo Subianto contested Indonesia’s elections multiple times. In 2009, he ran unsuccessfully for vice president alongside Megawati Sukarnoputri, yet remained undeterred by that initial setback. By 2014, he vied for the presidency against Joko Widodo (Jokowi), then Jakarta’s popular governor, losing narrowly and highlighting his considerable support base. In 2019, Prabowo partnered with Sandiaga Uno and received backing from parties including Gerindra, PKS, PAN, the Democratic Party, and Berkarya, facing Jokowi—now an incumbent president—and ultimately losing again, with his dispute over the results leading to nationwide protests and deadly riots in Jakarta.
Despite the turbulence, a surprising turn of events took place soon after. Jokowi, recognizing Prabowo’s influence and perhaps in a bid to form a “unity government,” appointed him Minister of Defence (2019-2024). This position restored a measure of legitimacy to Prabowo’s public image, mending ties with countries that had previously looked askance at his human rights record. The ban on his US entry, once an emblem of his pariah status, effectively lifted upon his ministerial appointment.

ROAD TO THE PRESIDENCY
Prabowo’s eventual victory in the 2024 presidential elections exemplifies his refusal to settle for any outcome short of the nation’s highest office. After years of electoral defeats, controversies, and alliance-building, Prabowo ran for the presidency again in the 2024 race. This time, he partnered with Gibran Rakabuming Raka—President Jokowi’s eldest son. The alliance was unexpected in many quarters, reflecting a new political calculus: it merged Jokowi’s enduring popularity with Prabowo’s strong defence credentials, promising stability and continuity under a fresh administration.
Prabowo’s election campaign heavily emphasized three key pillars:
Economy: His election campaign title was “Developing Indonesia”, which pledged an 8% economic growth target. Proposals for large-scale infrastructure projects, economic nationalism, and policies favouring local industries filled his agenda. He also pledged to attract foreign investment while protecting national interests—an approach resonating with various electorate segments eager for balanced growth.
Education: He vowed to strengthen Indonesia’s human capital by emulating successful programs abroad—one of which, he said, was the mid-day meal initiative in Indian public schools, ensuring children received both nutrition and an incentive to attend.
Defence: As a former general and defence minister, he championed building a formidable Indonesian military capable of safeguarding territorial integrity. Particular emphasis was placed on maritime security, a nod to Indonesia’s strategic position in the vast Indo-Pacific.
Prabowo’s ultimate triumph in 2024 demonstrated how Indonesia’s electorate can accommodate complex figures—those with blemished pasts, yet also with potent messages of nationalism, security, and resilience. For many Indonesians, his unyielding personality and unwavering “will fight” signalled that he was the right leader to navigate the uncertain waters of regional geopolitics.

HIS 2025 VISIT TO INDIA
A headline-grabbing item on Prabowo’s agenda is the prospective purchase of the BrahMos cruise missile system. Jointly developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya, the BrahMos stands out as one of the world’s fastest supersonic cruise missiles, deployable from land, sea, and air platforms. Given Indonesia’s extensive maritime domain—spanning thousands of islands across critical sea lanes—the BrahMos could substantially bolster Jakarta’s defence capabilities.
Further driving Indonesia’s interest is the shift in Southeast Asia’s security landscape. China’s assertive moves in the South China Sea and its continuing standoff with Taiwan intensify Jakarta’s apprehensions. Although Indonesia is not a direct claimant in most contested parts of the SCS, it has faced tensions with Chinese vessels near the Natuna Islands—lying within the so-called “nine-dash line” that Beijing insists is part of its maritime territory. For Jakarta, a robust deterrent is increasingly essential to safeguarding its waters and asserting its sovereignty.

EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Another important dimension of Prabowo’s visit is replicating India’s success in running large-scale social programs. The mid-day meal scheme in Indian government schools is widely credited with reducing dropout rates, improving child nutrition, and incentivizing education among lower-income families. Prabowo, who promised a similar initiative during his campaign, sees India’s model as adaptable to Indonesia’s context, particularly for rural or impoverished regions like parts of Eastern Indonesia.
Beyond mid-day meals, broader partnerships could emerge in higher education, vocational training, and digital literacy programs. India’s notable achievements in IT services and digital ecosystems could offer lessons for Indonesia, which is also undergoing rapid digital transformation. As Java and Sumatra become tech and innovation hubs, forging collaborations with Indian institutions and tech giants can accelerate Indonesia’s ability to diversify its economy.

INDO-PACIFIC AND CHINA’S SHADOW
Prabowo’s upcoming India visit cannot be decoupled from the broader Indo-Pacific strategic environment. This maritime corridor, spanning the Indian and Pacific Oceans, has garnered intense interest from significant powers—chiefly the United States, China, Japan, and Australia. The rise of alliances such as the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US\) and AUKUS (Australia, the UK, and the U.S.) underscores the extent to which China’s expanding influence shapes other nations’ defence postures.
Although ASEAN touts a “Zone of Peace,” overlapping territorial claims make the South China Sea a flashpoint, prompting Indonesia—historically neutral and peace-making but provoked by Chinese intrusions around the Natunas—to lean toward concrete security partnerships under Prabowo’s leadership rather than mere multilateral declarations.
India, too, has strong motivations in Southeast Asia. Concerned about strategic encirclement, New Delhi seeks reliable regional maritime partners who share apprehensions about Beijing’s dominance. Hence, forging tighter defence ties with Indonesia is logical: a strong and unified front can shape negotiations over the Indo-Pacific’s future. As Prabowo’s administration grapples with the prospect of militarily balancing China’s ambitions, India’s willingness to engage is poised to become a linchpin in Jakarta’s security calculus.

VOLATILITY IN THE ‘ZONE OF PEACE’?
Southeast Asia faces growing volatility as China’s assertive actions in the SCS and potential forceful reunification with Taiwan raise questions about regional stability. Many ASEAN states strive for neutrality, yet economic dependencies—such as those stemming from Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative—create a precarious balance between gains and autonomy. Indonesia, under President Prabowo, though not openly confrontational toward China, shows signs of recalibrating its security approach, notably by considering advanced missile systems like BrahMos and forging deeper ties with India. These moves acknowledge the need for strategic alternatives to over-reliance on Beijing, complemented by cooperation with the US and Australia. Prabowo rose above military controversies and electoral defeats to lead the world’s fourth-largest nation. His upcoming attendance as the chief guest at India’s 76th Republic Day signals his administration’s willingness to pursue broader alliances and economic collaborations beyond previous comfort zones.
The likely purchase of the BrahMos missile and planned collaborations in the education and economic sectors demonstrate how Indonesia positions itself in an era of rapid change. The Indosphere and Nusantara worlds, bound by centuries of cultural and trade ties, find new relevance in an Indo-Pacific context framed mainly by Beijing’s rise. For India, aligning with Southeast Asia’s biggest country meets geostrategic imperatives: ensuring the Indian Ocean remains peaceful and that China’s maritime aspirations and influence face constraints.

Prabowo Subianto’s historic visit to India marks the dawn of a new chapter in Indonesia-India relations—one driven by shared interests, mutual respect, and a keen eye on the gathering clouds in the Indo-Pacific horizon.

* Gautam Kumar Jha is Assistant Professor, Centre for Chinese & Southeast Asian Studies, JNU.

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