New Delhi: Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s “southern outreach” by contesting from Wayanad is unlikely to bring any dividends other than in Kerala where the party is already in an advantageous position. The general feeling in the state is that if the Congress party intended to make a larger political statement to the BJP regarding a North-South divide, then Rahul Gandhi should have contested either from Karnataka or Goa, where the saffron party has taken deep roots. By contesting from a constituency in Kerala where BJP has no presence whatsoever, the Congress president is sending wrong signals regarding his party’s intent in taking on the Sangh Parivar at the national level. His decision to contest from a Congress stronghold like Wayanad instead gives credence to the BJP and CPM contention that Rahul Gandhi is afraid of losing the family pocket borough Amethi this time around. The party could have given some legitimacy to its decision in selecting Kerala as his second destination had Rahul Gandhi dared to contest from Thiruvananthapuram or Pathanamthitta, where the BJP claims to have widened its base in the aftermath of its “Save Sabarimala” agitation. Senior Congress leader A.K. Antony was perhaps partly right in saying that the presence of Rahul Gandhi at the tri-junction—meaning Wayanad is situated at a strategic point bordering Tamil Nadu and Karnataka—would create “a wave” in favour of Congress in South India, which together accounts for 130, excluding two in Goa and one in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lok Sabah seats. Among the five states, Karnataka is the only state where BJP has a healthy presence.
Rahul Gandhi contesting from Wayanad may help rejuvenate the Congress party in Kerala to a very large extent. But this cannot be the case with the other neighbouring southern states. It will be foolish to believe that Rahul Gandhi contesting from Kerala will have an electrifying effect on the electorate of Andhra and Telangana. The Congress, which had considerable presence in the undivided Andhra Pradesh at one time, today is a pale shadow in the state of Andhra. In Telangana, it has absolutely no presence at all. It will be wise to say that Congress, at least in this election, can easily forget 42 seats—25 in Andhra and 17 of Telangana. So to be realistic, that leaves the Congress with only 88 seats, that of 39 in Tamil Nadu plus one in Puducherry, 28 in Karnataka and 20 in Kerala. As for Karnataka, there is a Congress-Janata Dal(S) alliance in place, irrespective of whether it percolates down the line or not. “Rahul effect” will have nothing to do with it. In Tamil Nadu also it is not the presence of Rahul Gandhi in Kerala that is going to help his party in its alliance with DMK; it is the absence of J. Jayalalithaa in the opposite AIADMK camp that is going to change the tide. It is immaterial that DMK has not won a parliamentary seat since 2009 or Congress lost its deposit money in all but one constituency in Tamil Nadu in 2014. In “Dravida” Nadu, Amma’s party has already committed political hara-kiri by hoisting Narendra Modi as its poll mascot. It doesn’t need anyone else’s help on its way to a natural death.
By convincing, some say without malice, hoodwinking, Rahul Gandhi to contest from Kerala, the Congress leadership in the state has succeeded in suppressing “groupism” within the party, which was raising its ugly head once again, threatening to spoil the party’s chances even in Wayanad. Now with infighting put in place, Rahul Gandhi’s next challenge will be to convince the electorate in Wayanad who is enemy number one in the state: the ruling CPM or the non-existent BJP. Issues such as national security or Balakot strike have no relevance in this southern state, especially in Wayanad, identified as one of the most backward regions in the country. What is Rahul Gandhi going to talk about? It can’t be development of the region, for even a child in the area will know Wayanad will go out of Rahul Gandhi’s mind the moment elections are over. Can he skip the issue of political violence in Kerala, especially with a murder accused as CPM candidate in neighbouring Vadakara constituency? Or is he going to forget the CPM, supposedly an ally-in-waiting post elections? But it looks like the CPM is not going to forget or forgive him. No wonder party mouthpiece Deshabhimani on Monday had a vitriolic leader, significantly titled: “Pappu strike to complete Congress downfall”.
As an old comrade put it: CPM is reinventing Amitabh Bachchan in Allahabad in the 1984 elections when supporters of his rival, the late H.N. Bahuguna, played the number “Mere angane mein tumhara kya kam hai”. The task is cut out for both Rahul Gandhi and the electorate of Wayanad; for the former a surreal election campaign and for the latter queuing up at polling booths twice in six months’ time.