Regional aspirations are becoming an important part of BJP’s narrative.
New Delhi: Most of India’s national and regional parties that have been in the political forefront in the last few years are now on a downward spiral because of their inability to develop a second generation of leaders, apart from their failure to evolve into larger pan-India entities. Political experts believe that as a result of this, in the coming years, the number of political parties deserving to be called mainstream may get restricted to two or three. At present, only six political parties are recognised as national parties by the Election Commission of India. These are the Bharatiya Janata Party, Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist).
The Sunday Guardian spoke to political observers and political leaders on the possible course some prominent regional and national parties, most of which are personality based—such as BSP, Samajwadi Party (SP), Lok Janashakti Party (LJP), Janata Dal Unted (JDU), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), TMC and Biju Janata Dal (BJD)—will take.
Experts say that regional aspirations are becoming an important part of BJP’s narrative, which is helping it attain acceptability in newer regions. Add to it the inability of the regional parties to evolve or move beyond their own states, and the regional players are losing their relevance, increasingly.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA won 150 seats from areas outside of the Hindi belt, a loose term to denote the 10 Hindi speaking states that have a total of 225 LS amongst themselves.
UTTAR PRADESH
The BSP, which was founded in 1984, does not have a leader who has been groomed to take charge of the party’s affairs after present president Mayawati. In contrast, BSP founder, Kanshi Ram had made it very clear that after him Mayawati would lead the party.
According to a Lucknow based editor of a Hindi newspaper, who has covered UP politics for more than 15 years, the only possible future for the BSP after Mayawati is the party’s disintegration. “It is a personality based party. No one has been groomed to take charge of party affairs after Mayawati. She is trying to bring to the forefront her 24-year-old nephew, Akash Anand, but the cadre will not accept him. A large chunk of her votes is now shifting to the BJP. The BSP was supposed to represent the aspirations of Dalits, but it has not been able to make any dent outside of UP. Once Mayawati exits from her role, most of her leaders and cadre will move either to the BJP or the Congress,” he said. The BSP won 10 seats in UP, while getting 1.66 crore votes or 19.3% of the total votes cast in the state.
Similarly, the SP, after the “exit” of Mulayam Singh Yadav has become a pale shadow of its former self, when it used to command attention at the Centre apart from in UP. “Regional parties such as the SP need a regular flow of resources to keep its flock together. It has been out of power at the Centre for five years, and will be out for five more years. In UP too, its prospects do not seem very bright. All these years, the SP leadership has been focused more on filling their own coffers rather than thinking about the party’s future. Akhilesh Yadav is young but he is yet to give any indications of having a vision for SP’s future. SP, like the BSP, has not been able to evolve into a national party from being a caste based party. UP is a big state—as big as a country. Such a size has its advantages and disadvantages, politically. Akhilesh is finding it difficult to handle the nitty-gritty of the politics of UP. It will be very surprising if the SP continues to stay relevant post 2029,” said the editor. In UP, the SP won five LS seats, while securing 18% of the total votes polled (1.5 crore votes) in the state.
BIHAR
In neighbouring Bihar, JDU leaders do not have any answer on Nitish Kumar’s successor as leader of the party.
“No one knows. There is no Number 2. Nitishji does not believe in having a Number 2. There was some speculation that Prashant Kishor was being groomed for that position, but recent developments have ended all such speculation. Nitish Kumar’s son Nishant has neither shown any political aspirations nor has Nitish given any hint that he wants his son to join politics. Maybe it is a case of we will cross the bridge when we get there. There is no succession plan as of now,” said a senior party leader.
Nitish, who was seen as the most credible face to take on Narendra Modi, has maintained his image of being an honest and sincere leader in the four decades that he has been in public life and the JDU leader quoted earlier agrees that as of now the party does not have anyone who can match his stature. “His are huge shoes to fill,” he remarked. The JDU won 16 of the 17 seats it contested in Bihar, while getting 89 lakh votes or 22% of the total votes polled in the state.
Conversely, in the case of LJP, which, like the JDU, is an alliance partner of the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), it is clear that two-time MP, Chirag Paswan will lead the party after his father Ram Vilas Paswan.
“His father has been grooming him for a long time now, taking him to NDA meetings, asking him to handle the party’s affairs, etc. Chirag has been accepted by LJP’s top leaders (most of them are from his own family) as well as the workers. The transition is already taking place, smoothly. LJP with its fixed vote share of 7%-10% in Bihar is here to stay for the next 5-10 years. However, if it does not become more inclusive and continues to project itself as just a forum for Dalit leaders, then it will not get votes from other castes, which will affect its shelf life,” said a Patna-based senior journalist. The LJP won all the six seats it contested in Bihar, while polling 7.9% votes (32 lakh) in the state.
As for the RJD, which is perhaps the most prominent regional party in Bihar, it did not face any major issues while the baton was being passed from Lalu Prasad Yadav to his younger son, Tejashwi. But the situation in the party post the 23 May debacle, when RJD did not win a single Lok Sabha seat, has become unpredictable.
“Lalu had made it clear that it would be Tejashwi who would lead the party after him. However, after the initial honeymoon period, Tejashwi’s limitations are coming to the fore. There has been a lot of talk about how he mismanaged the ticket distribution in the Lok Sabha elections. His immaturity has become obvious. Plus, the Yadav vote bank is shifting to the BJP. Tejashwi is also facing trouble from within the family and from senior leaders. At present, the RJD is in a vulnerable state and indications are that prominent party leaders might join the NDA, leaving Tejashwi even more susceptible to attacks,” said a Patna based party strategist. Even though the RJD could not win a single seat in the state, yet it got over 62 lakh votes, which was 15.4% of the total votes polled in Bihar.
WEST BENGAL
In West Bengal, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC, which celebrated 20 years of existence last year, too has been unable to present a credible face to lead the party after her. TMC is one of the six national parties, but its formidable presence is restricted only to West Bengal. It used to have a smattering of support in Tripura and Manipur before the rise of BJP in the Northeast. Now it has near zero presence in the rest of India.
“As far as succession is concerned, Mamata’s nephew, Abhishek presents himself as her political heir in party forums and in front of workers. The party has many leaders senior to him, but they do not try to prove their seniority for fear of Mamata, whose insecurity is legendary. However, they also do not accept Abhishek as their leader. I don’t think many will follow him if he gets the reins of the party post Mamata. Unlike Mamata, TMC’s senior leaders are quite flexible and if they do not see any future for the party, post the 2021 Assembly elections, they will not have any qualms about leaving the party. The problem with Mamata, like most regional leaders, is that she has not been able to expand her base to other states and break out of the mould of a regional party. Voters now want to be associated with a party which has a pan-India reach, because Bengal’s voters are working all over India—in Delhi, Mumbai, Punjab, etc.,—and hence want to bring to power a party that can help them in other states too,” said a Kolkata based TMC leader. The TMC won 22 seats from Bengal, with a 43% vote-share (2.47 crore votes) in the state.
ODISHA
In Odisha, the 72-year-old Chief Minister, Naveen Patnaik, who took oath as CM for the fifth time last week, has not been able to groom a successor to lead his party, BJD. The ailing Patnaik has long been accused of sidelining any leader who he feels may threaten his chair and has come in for strong criticism from his party colleagues for turning the party into his fiefdom.
“He believes that the BJD’s preeminent position in the state is because of him, which is true to a large extent. However, also true is the fact that he has not developed any leadership which can take care of the party after him. He believes that until the time he is there, he will lead the party, and once he decides to leave, the party leaders will choose their own leader. However, such a scenario can also lead to the party breaking into small pieces. With BJP making inroads into the state and being able to reduce the vote difference with BJD in the Lok Sabha elections to just 4.4%, it is but obvious that in the next five years it will emerge as the main force in Odisha, especially when you consider Naveen-babu’s ailing health,” said a former BJD MP. In the 2019 LS elections, the BJD had a 43% vote share and won roughly 1.02 crore of the votes cast in the state.