Attempt to dislodge Brand Modi goes on: Covid handling is termed ‘apocalyptic’ by 12 parties led by Sonia Gandhi, while her party’s Adhir Choudhury seeks from the Modi government a DRDO Covid hospital in Murshidabad in Bengal.
Two statements issued in the past fortnight by Sonia Gandhi in her capacity as Chairperson of United Progressive Alliance has given rise to talk of the formation of UPA 3, which will pose a challenge to Brand Modi in 2024. The first statement came on 12 May: censuring the Government’s handling of the Covid pandemic, which was described as “apocalyptic, hence tragic”. The second came on 23 May, extending support to the farmers’ agitation, which entered its sixth month on 26 May. Signatories who endorsed Sonia Gandhi’s missives were regional satraps H.D. Deve Gowda, Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray, Mamata Banerjee, M.K. Stalin, Hemant Soren, Farooq Abdullah, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejaswi Yadav, and two Communist stalwarts D. Raja and Sitaram Yechury. Criticism of government in Covid handling did not prompt them to appeal to the kisans to observe Covid protocol during the protest—on Wednesday, the agitators asseverated on Delhi border sans masks or social distancing.
[Ironically, the deemed Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Adhir Ranjan Choudhury of Congress, is understood to have made a request to PM on 24 May (after the apex meet to select CBI chief) for setting up of a 500-bed Covid hospital in Murshidabad—Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) has earned a name for itself in providing free medical treatment and succour to Covid patients, which accentuated this request, an endorsement of the government’s endeavour.]
Sonia Gandhi-led statements were hailed in some quarters of media as “unity of entire opposition”. Did Sonia Gandhi rally round “entire opposition”? Not quite. Significant non-inclusions were CMs Naveen Patnaik, K. Chandrashekhar Rao, Jaganmohan Reddy, Arvind Kejriwal and former CM Mayawati. Kejriwal’s AAP separately extended support to the farmers. Kejriwal fancies himself as the nation-wide successor to Congress’ non-BJP mantle—he has decimated the Grand Old Party in Delhi; is looking forward to scalping it in Punjab in 2022. AAP has registered its presence in the past few years in 17 state Vidhan Sabha polls, albeit as a non-starter. Kejriwal apparently has his own vision of an alternative. Patnaik is not uncomfortable with Modi—in 2019 Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha polls there were no acerbic exchanges between BJD and BJP in Odisha. KCR and Jagan Reddy do not perceive BJP as threat—they have their regional rivals like TDP and are wary of the revival of Congress in Telangana and Andhra. Jagan Reddy went out of his way on 8 May when he chided Jharkhand’s Hemant Soren for his tweet castigating Modi on Covid management. Mayawati is upset at Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s attempts to poach on her turf in UP, and the defections of BSP legislators in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan into Congress have chagrined her. Congress proximity to her emerging rival, Chandrashekhar Azad in Dalit politics also makes her wary. Time to time, especially during the abrogation of Article 370 on Jammu & Kashmir, most of these parties sided with BJP in Parliament.
There are crevices. The show of unity among Sonia Gandhi conformists in these two letters is somewhat brittle—Sanjay Raut, the Shiv Sena strategist, has been for some time suggesting that UPA helmsmanship, which has been held by Sonia Gandhi over past 17 years, ought to now devolve on the seasoned shoulders of octogenarian Sharad Pawar of NCP. Congress, which retained its vote share around 20% in 2014 and 2019 (BJP, 38%)—more than the combined vote share of non-Congress, non-BJP parties put together, is not on the beam at the controls of the anti-BJP betrothal. Congress has to attune itself to being a partner, not head honcho of an alliance—or else it ought to find its own feet, sans allies. BJP has lost many NDA allies, including traditional ones like Akalis and Shiv Sena: for a party to grow, alliances are primary, but not permanent requisite when own wherewithal is entrenched. Congress may like to take a leaf out of BJP’s maturation.
On 23 May, while the facade of “opposition unity” was put on display, Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, J.P. Nadda had a pow-wow with RSS Sarkaryawah (general secretary) Dattatreya Hosabale. In recent months, due to lack of effective communication on Covid mainframe and dismal non-visibility of BJP cadres on the ground, the Modi image has lost some sheen. RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat in a recent statement tried to do damage control and hold Modi’s hand. The hullabaloo of the “taali and thali” evening in March 2020 and the subsequent “lamp lighting” moment in April that year has died down and gloom is discernible. This despite the fact that on 17 January 2020, India issued its first Covid advisory (Wuhan unearthed: 8 January) and India was among the first nations to start screening of passengers at airports. The apparent malefaction in handling the vaccination drive has added to the enfeeblement. The aggressive West Bengal Plassey 2.0 campaign, which could not uproot Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool has contributed to the attrition. The 23 May strategising, according to those in the know, was aimed at containment. Some changes in the government; induction of renowned professionals to handle Covid may be on anvil. On 30 May, BJP cadre will fan out in one lakh villages with medical kits, masks and campaign against spread of the pandemic. (The letter writing party’s presence on the ground, in contrast, is feeble.) The government is considering livelihood packages for families which have lost their breadwinner. Fostering and education handholding scheme for orphaned children is on anvil. If learnings are culled from the “India Shining” catastrophe of 2004 some immoderate strides may be secured.
In the run up to 2024 there will be Vidhan Sabha polls in 17 states: Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, Gujarat and Himachal (in 2022); Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, MP, Telangana and Mizoram (2023). In these states, with the exception of UP, where Congress is an also-ran and Punjab (where BJP base is eroded due to its divorce with Sangh Parivar’s 1967-vintage “original” ally Shiromani Akali Dal; accentuated by the farmers’ angst on the three farm laws) the contest will essentially be between the two national parties. In last two general elections, BJP won around 90% of the straight fights with Congress. Considering that BJP itself has grown from two seats in 1984 to 303 in 2019, Congress capacity for a bounce back cannot be precluded. But for that dexterity of leadership (not ad hoc “temporary” president) and organisation on the ground are prerequisite.
After the recent poll in Kerala, while choosing legislature party leader, Rahul Gandhi has overturned the applecart of established leaders. Will he follow it up elsewhere? If so, with what efficacy ?
With reference to Kerala, it is worth noting that after he used an iron fist to revamp his party and ministry after sweeping into power for an unprecedented second term (a rarity in that state) CPM strongman Pinarayi Vijayan has earned the epithet of “dhoti clad Modi”. Somewhat a la Modi in 2014, he has declared that “all important policy matters” will emanate from his desk, thereby rendering his ministers as symbolic, mantlepiece decorations. Modi in 2014 banned the employment as ministerial aides persons who served under UPA, citing “administrative requirements”. Ministers were not given the discretion of choosing their staff—RSS and ABVP cadre were commandeered and appointed as aides. Similarly, Pinarayi Viajayan, who was CPM’s state secretary before becoming CM and still has iron-grip on the party machinery in Kerala, has ordained that all ministerial aides will be appointed by the party secretariat. Emergence of this “dhoti-clad Modi” perhaps signals the constancy of Brand Modi.