Analysts of poll trends in the run-up to the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections see Muslims shifting from the ruling Samajwadi Party, which they have been voting for, overwhelmingly, since 1993 onwards. According to some commentators and voters interviewed by this correspondent, Bahujan Samaj Party stands most appropriately poised to claim the disenchanted Muslim votes. But some also see the minority vote split among SP, BSP and Congress to defeat the BJP—the usual pattern noticed in the past elections.
Interestingly, the slippage of Muslim votes has been admitted by Muslim leaders of SP like Azam Khan and others. According to SP insiders, the senior leadership of the party has been instructed to assuage the anger of the community as the party started its poll campaign with Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s Vikas Yatra on Thursday.
The first concern, analysts believe, is the question of security for Muslims. “Muslims have been unhappy over SP’s handling of the Muzaffarnagar riots. The Dadri incident has further alienated the community from the SP. Besides, Muslims’ voting behaviour in the recent past has been BJP-centric— ‘negative voting’—as they have voted for a party that could defeat the BJP,” wrote analysts Amitabh Tiwari and Subhash Chandra in their recent article on a possible Muslim shift towards BSP in the upcoming UP polls.
Statistics about the Muslim voting pattern since 2002 Assembly polls support Tiwari and Chandra’s observation. Maximum Muslim votes have been cast for SP, followed by BSP and Congress.
In the upcoming 2017 polls, according to Tiwari and Chandra’s calculation, BSP may get around 30-50% Muslim votes, which will add to its kitty of Jatav, upper caste and MBC votes, catapulting the party to have overall 30+per cent votes, which is considered a winning margin in UP Assembly elections.
Sunil Bhadoria, a BSP leader, also says Muslims would tilt towards the BSP. “Four- and-a-half years of SP rule has delivered unprecedented insecurity among marginalised groups, both Muslims and Hindus. Besides a record number of riots, overall law and order in the state has been a shambles all these years. And as this government is near to completing its term, we are not seeing appraisal of its performance, but a silly fight within the ruling Yadav family for power. Sifting through Mayawati’s tenures as CM, you can’t cite an example of law and order collapse. She didn’t allow any big single communal rally to take place. Plus, she took all necessary steps to empower the minorities and disadvantaged sections of society. Her fair record must impress Muslims,” he said.
But some observers see chinks in this simplification that “Muslims will move towards BSP.” Abdul Hafiz Gandhi, a former Aligarh Muslim University (AMU)students’ union president, has been with the BSP and Congress as a young Muslim leader. He has travelled the length and breadth of the state, interacting with the voters, most keenly with Muslims. He says that despite the Muslims’ visible disillusionment with the SP, they will not move towards BSP in hordes. “See, security is no doubt a concern for the Muslim community, but it can’t be the only yardstick to measure the electoral choices of the community. The youth of the community aspires for reddressal of issues surrounding empowerment, educational and vocational opportunities. They will size up all parties on these parameters and will vote tactfully. Besides, since Muslims have recently become increasingly conscious of the communal designs of the right wing forces in the state, their votes may remain split among SP, BSP and Congress, three parties trusted by them to defeat the BJP,” said Gandhi.
Gandhi added that when BSP won a majority mandate in 2007, only 17% Muslims had voted for the party. “Muslims nurture grievances against Maywati and doubt whether she will give proper preference to their development. Unlike SP’s Muslim-oriented schemes in their agenda, BSP doesn’t promise any such plan. Moreover, we don’t see BSP cadres hitting the streets on Muslim-related issues, like they did on the Una incident and Rohith Vemula’s suicide. It’s only recently during her poll campaign that Mayawati is mouthing concerns about the plight of the community. She was silent for the last four-and-a-half years,” said Gandhi. But when you take a look at the SP government’s tenure, no major empowerment of Muslims took place. According to Tiwari and Chandra’s research, SP has been in power for almost 50% of the duration since 1990, enjoying the majority Muslim support. However, the status of the Muslims has not really improved under Netaji’s (Mulayam Singh Yadav) rule. The enrolment of Muslims in elementary schools in India is 12.8%, which is similar to the total Muslim population. In Uttar Pradesh, this is only 9.64%, which is half of their population in the state.
Delhi hosts a huge number of migrants from UP. Mehboob Ali, a resident of Bilari in West UP, works as a barber in South Delhi. He is connected with an outfit of Backward Muslims. He recently toured some areas in West UP. “One of the most significant political developments is that many Muslim organisations are working for unity among Muslims, Dalits and the backwards. They are openly asking for votes for the BSP even in areas where popular Muslim leaders belong to the SP. All these SP leaders are nervous about their 2017 prospects and that is why the SP has not cleared their tickets so far,” said Mehboob.
Prof Afroz Alam of Department of Political Science in the Maulana Azad Urdu University has done a detailed field study in UP and has observed the complex caste and community equations at play in the run-up to the 2017 polls. He claims to have noticed Muslims drifting from SP to the BSP.
“See, there is a three-way pattern in this. One, the disenchantment among Muslims due to the rising communal violence during the SP regime is quite visible. Second, BSP has silently changed its strategy of appealing to Muslims en masse and has rather carved out a plan to induce Pasmanda Muslims by massively employing Pasmanda youths to campaign for the party at the booth level and this is getting a huge response, as was reflected in my field visit to UP recently. Third, there are loyal Muslim votes for the SP whose deep emotional attachment with the party is shaken due to their looming possible defeat in the forthcoming elections. They are also in search of a party which can effectively challenge the designs of the rising right wing. The BSP appears a viable option for them,” said Alam, sharing his field notes with The Sunday Guardian.
Muslims form around 19% of the overall electorate in UP. Some put this figure at 20-22%. They are said to exercise their influence in around 125 seats, where they are 20% and more of the total population. The BJP has been winning 19-23% of the high Muslim population seats because of a split in Muslim votes.
