PM Modi will sweep 2024 elections with greater might

Less than two years to general elections 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s electoral footprint is stronger than what it was in 2017,prior to 2019general elections. While Modi in pre-2019 era was still a four-year-old phenomenon in national polity, in post-2019 India, Modi has become a subconscious habit of the Indian voter. His footprint has grown stronger, his appeal is getting more acceptability in new political frontiers like Telangana and Tamil Nadu.
Despite the peak polarisation of Muslim votes, BJP returned in Uttar Pradesh with two-thirds of majority, broke the electoral trend by winning Uttarakhand solely on Modi’s charisma and organisational strength. Even after being a number three political option in Punjab, post the election results, BJP in the state has emerged as the main opposition force to compete with AamAdmi Party in the future. Major political leaders joining from Congress andAkali is taking place in BJP and Modi’s socio-non-political communication with the Sikh community has not stopped irrespective of election results. The mission to “win hearts” is slowly bearing fruits for the BJP in Punjab. What analysts have failed to understand while studying Modi’s brand of politics is his unique stamina and strength of 365 days, 24×7 “Jan Samvaad”. This has positioned him as the symbolic “fatherly’ figure in the family who has a spiritual and moral connect and someone who even if the family members are unhappy with, will never desert during crisis. This differentiates Modi from any other political challenger today. By establishing communication on culture and dharma, and eloquently expressing his views on India’s glorious past and aspirational future, Modi has established a permanent connect with 80% of India which is less than 40 years of age.
Some of them like him, some don’t, but none will not have a sincere opinion about him. When it comes to a political choice on the national scale, the question has shifted from “Modi vs Who” to “only Modi for India”. Speaking to any Indian across geographies, you will realise that Modi has become a perennial national political habit of an individual across age groups and geography. Let us look at state-wise matrix to analyse Prime Minister Modi in 2024. As per Jan Ki Baat’s snap poll conducted post-elections 2022, Prime Minister Modi’s national acceptance averages more than 55% in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Assam, Tripura, Haryana, and Delhi. If this acceptance matrix remains intact in the months to come, BJP can repeat or near its 2019 performance in all the above states. Infact, in Uttar Pradesh, with surrounding factors remaining constant, the BJP can better its 2019 tally. Post elections 2022, the BJP is replacing the Congress and Akali in Punjab, and Punjab can yield BJP more seats than it did in 2019. The grey area of West Bengal where the party is on a thin wicket, a 60% loss of seats compared to 2019, can be covered from new frontiers like Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh. The BJP at the Centre has been tactical in its political handling of Odisha and both Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik share a bond of mutual respect which can come to the parties’ rescue if the political wind starts blowing in the opposite direction, however unlikely in the current scheme of polity. Though Karnataka can see stiff competition in the upcoming Assembly elections in 2023, for 2024 Prime Minister’s acceptance meter stands at 52%, placing him as the most preferred choice of the state in 2024. With the political baseline of Indian voters having drifted away from accepting “pseudo secularism” as a political narrative and the new Indian “secular” voter shredding the habit to give fractured mandate or weak mandate, voting for a political alternative will take the voter in a sphere of “unknown”, which is less likely. Also, with no other leader having a similar mass base political connect as Modi, the swing voter who generally is “loyal yet disgruntled” tends to vote back Prime Minister Narendra Modi rather than switching to a new political option. Modi today is not competing with other political opponents, Modi is competing with Modi to outperform Modi’s past electoral feat.
For Modi’s advantage, the other political options end up becoming anti-Hindu choices as elections come near. We saw this in the recently concluded Uttar Pradesh elections. Their compulsion to keep 20% together ends up making them lose the support of 80% Hindus. The fringe radical fundamentalists, which have become the new ideological leaders of 20% of Muslims, have further created fissures between them and the mainstream. The opposition political parties fail to see the reality, they end up supporting these fundamentalists because of “glamorous” street protests, but it ends up making them a political fringe. Late Arun Jaitley pointed this out while commenting about Congress under Rahul Gandhi, whereas the other political option Aam Aadmi Party is taking initial steps in its ideological positioning vis-a-vis BJP. This gives BJP more chance to get the majority of 80% of Hindus’ support in a national contest in 2024, particularly when the Ram Mandir construction is expected to be complete between December2023 and January 2024, and the Indian Pride and Global Indian prestige is only growing as dominant political narratives. Generally, a nation that is searching for civilisational rennaisance avoids choosing a less trusted option.
What many in the opposition have failed to understand is that “the Modi phenomenon” is working consistently on “voters who have not voted in the last election”, to compensate for any swing of vote away from the BJP in the subsequent election. This is why the lead margins in election results, either remain constant or decrease marginally despite “maximum index of opposition unity”. Political logic floated by some leaders that 60% of India did not vote for Modi even in 2019 is good media, but bad politics. These narratives further consolidate the Modi voter to get the civilisational leader back. This is why the BJP increased its vote share in 2019, vis-a-vis 2014. Modi, in 2014 was a political leader who gave hope, in 2019, he projected himself as the nationalist leader who delivered and kept national interest supreme; 2024 will be his projection as the civilisational leader of Bharat. Do not be surprised that Modi comes back in 2024 with a higher vote share than in 2019, and relatively stronger mandate than 2014. But as they say, “a week is a long time in Indian politics”, this is why studying the voter regularly on the ground holds the key to understanding the thought process of the new Indian voter.
(The writer is a psephologist and journalist and is the founder of Jan Ki Baat and hosts the Janta ka Mukadma debate show on India News. Views are personal).