The expectations on Liz Truss are high, a big budget announcement after her appointment is a certainty.
London: On Monday, 5 September 2022, the new British Prime Minister will be confirmed according to the votes of Conservative Party members. Most agree that Liz Truss will be the new occupant of No.10, some are still hoping that the self-proclaimed underdog Rishi Sunak will realise a shock victory.
There has been much speculation about Liz Truss’ new cabinet, namely that Suella Braverman will take over the Home Office, Kwasi Kwarteng will be Chancellor, James Cleverly is most likely to be Foreign Minister, Sajid Javid is tipped to take over as Northern Ireland Secretary, Kemi Badenoch rises to Education Secretary, Ranil Jayawardena promoted to Environment Secretary, Nadine Dories will remain as Culture Secretary and Ben Wallace as Defence Secretary. Whoever is the new Health Secretary has the job of reducing the operation backlog, shortening the ambulance response time, stemming the exodus of consultants retiring early, and juggling the funding between the NHS and social care. The paucity of social carers and facilities is holding up hospital admissions as patients cannot remain in their communities or be discharged without provision of adequate social care.
The expectations on Truss are high, a big budget announcement after her appointment is a certainty, big VAT cuts possibly on everything are anticipated. Apart from stopping inflation and avoiding a recession, folks are expecting a focus on food security, water and gas storage, new housing and the seemingly out of control arrival of illegal immigrants, with 1,295 arriving on 22 August. The other figure that needs close attention is the cause and effect of net migration: this year, over 1.1 million people have been granted visas to live in UK, a 70% increase on pre-Brexit levels. However, visa data does not reveal how immigration levels have been affected since Brexit and post-Covid; net migration is thought to be circa 300,000; in the year ending June 2022 a total of 170,062 visas were granted to Ukrainian nationals. When the 2021 census date becomes available in the autumn it will be important for the new government to examine the increasingly diverse origins of today’s migrant populations and assess the cultural and social ramifications.
China is another conundrum for a Truss government, Truss has been adamant she wants to rewrite UK’s relationship with China and not only because of human rights abuses, possibly designating China as a “threat” rather than the current “systemic competitor”, even level pegging China with Russia. What this means for trade and supply chains, the armed forces and NATO, the Indo-Pacific, UK-EU and UK-US is not clear; what it does mean is less of China’s presence in UK technology, manufacturing, energy, education, science and economic sectors.
Truss backer Tom Tugendhat’s China Research Group has undertaken a written explainer and briefed MPs on the insidious work of China’s United Front that poses a unique challenge to all spheres of society; a timely publication about foreign interference from the CCP. It begins “The United Front is the strategy by which the CCP seeks to strengthen its hold on power, by isolating rivals, neutralising parties in the middle, and maximising its number of allies.” The explainer ends with recommendations for future research and policy work on United Front activities in the UK.
Now that campaigning is over, folks are expecting action, not pledges. Truss has promised a lean, effective government, her mission will be to get ministries to devise the long term strategy for security and growth, and to deliver the necessary follow through to achieve it.
Truss will also have the impossible task of uniting the party. Rishi Sunak supporters and the cancel-Brexit crowd will make it difficult to unite the party. Their non-stop antipathy will make life difficult for Truss; the media will pick this up and manufacture a clamour for a general election.