Representing the alliance, the Congress will fight on four out of five Assembly seats in the Ghaziabad constituency. This is expected to affect the BSP, which had won in all the five seats in 2012 and has nominated its sitting MLAs again this year, except in Sahibabad.
According to statistics, out of 8.6 lakh voters in Sahibabad, 1.20 lakh are Muslim voters; out of 4.22 lakh voters in Ghaziabad (city), 50,000 are Muslim voters; out of 4.16 lakh voters in Muradnagar, 60,000 voters are Muslims; out of 3.30 lakh voters in Modinagar, 65,000 are Muslim voters and out of 4.55 lakh voters in Loni, 1.10 lakh are Muslims.
In the 2012 state election, the Congress had earned 11.5% votes and the winning Samajwadi Party had got a total of 29% votes. If both the parties manage to retain their vote share, the Congress-SP alliance can easily win with a little over 40% votes. But this will not be easy.
Khursheed, a retired government official in Sahibabad, said, “This alliance is confusing the Muslim voters here. So, it is obvious that the BSP is feeling threatened. But people have a lot of complaints against the SP and the Congress does not really have any vote share this season.”
The constituency with the highest number of voters in the region, Sahibabad is a perfect example of the effects of the alliance influencing the dynamics of various vote banks. Amarpal Sharma, a popular face in the region, joined Congress a few weeks back and was nominated from Sahibabad. He is seen as a tough contender owing to the support he gets from Muslims as well as Hindu voters in the area. However, for Sharma, the challenge is to unite the SP and Congress workers for his campaign.
While other Congress candidates Narendra Rathi, Satish Chandra and Narendra Bhardwaj had to end their dream to contest from Sahihabad, SP’s Virendra Yadav, whose candidature had already been announced by the party from the Sahibabad seat, was told to give up even before the fight began. On the one hand, there is widespread discontent among the SP and Congress district party workers and on the other hand, the Muslim vote bank has not yet been able to decide whom to vote for.
Samra, a housewife based in Ghaziabad, said, “I really don’t know yet who am I going to vote for. Earlier, the Congress was absolutely non-existent in the race. But now they are back in the game. I had made up my mind to vote the BSP because I wanted better law and order in the state. The question is whether the alliance will make the SP perform better or not; or maybe, we should just stick to our earlier choice BSP, ignoring the alliance.”
Jalaluddin, the BSP candidate who was nominated from Sahibabad after Amarpal Sharma left BSP, is not said to be as popular among people. Some BSP party workers have complained that Jalaluddin has not been active on the ground which is why a lot of people do not recognise him. Sunil Sharma, BJP candidate from Sahibabad, will be fighting the election from this seat a second time after being defeated in 2012. Many see this as his last shot at candidature, as he had to do a lot of convincing to get a second chance. Suresh Bansal, owner of a popular sweets shop in Rajnagar District Area (RDC), Ghaziabad, said, “The alliance is affecting SP, Congress and BSP vote banks only. People who have decided to vote for the BJP will vote for BJP. In Ghaziabad, BJP supporters have increased. In the 2014 general elections, the BJP’s General (Retd) V.K. Singh won with 56% vote share, which proves that people in Ghaziabad voted for the BJP across castes and religion.”