India and Indonesia have several commonalities. Both are the biggest countries of the South Asian and Southeast Asian region, respectively, in terms of size and population. Both are the principal economies of their respective regions, but are yet to achieve their fullest potential through optimal utilisation of their natural and human resources. Both are ethnically and religiously diverse, and thus face several challenges relating to maintaining harmony in society, and in fighting rising radicalism. Several aspects of the two societies and cultures including the emphasis on “Bhinneka Tunggal Ika” or “unity in diversity” demonstrate the remarkable similarity between the two. Moreover, the southernmost tip of India’s Andaman and Nicobar islands is less than hundred nautical miles away from the northernmost island of Indonesia. And yet, India and Indonesia keep slipping off from each other’s national cognitive map.
President Jokowi’s India visit starting on 12 December 2016 is to plug the gaps and strengthen bilateral ties. The last Indonesian President to visit India was Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2011. From the Indian side, Manmohan Singh was the last Prime Minister to visit Indonesia in 2013. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to visit Indonesia, former Indian President, Pratibha Patil visited Indonesia in 2008, and Indian Vice President, Hamid Ansari followed suit in 2015. Former leaders of both countries have done their bits to elevate the relationship. The signing of strategic partnership in 2005 is a case in point. In 2011, Yudhoyono was the chief guest on the occasion of Republic Day.
Jokowi’s visit provides the two countries with an opportunity to inject new vigour in the bilateral relationship and carve out a strategy to further widen and deepen the relations. Seemingly, the main purpose of the visit is to strengthen economic relations, foster connectivity and enhance cultural ties.
Jokowi’s visit is crucial for both countries in ways more than one. First, Indonesia is the largest country in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and holds immense importance for India in diplomatic, strategic and economic terms. The two countries are maritime neighbours and are major stakeholders in the regional dynamics. Given that India-Indonesia bilateral relationship can turn out to be one of the defining relationships of the region, New Delhi and Jakarta need to rejuvenate the relationship. The two sides are parties to the 16-member strong Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which aims to bring ASEAN closer to Japan, Korea, China, India, New Zealand and Australia.
Second, while the relationship between the two countries has been cordial, economic ties have been much below their potential. In 2011, during President Yudhoyono’s visit, both sides set the two-way trade target at US$25 billion to be achieved by 2015. However, bilateral trade volume has shrunk from US$21.44 billion in 2011 to US$15.95 billion in 2015. The share of India’s trade with Indonesia in India’s total trade was just 2.47% in the foregoing year. Also, the trade imbalance is tilted in favour of Indonesia. While the trade volume has shrunk significantly, trade deficit has increased from US$8.08 billion in 2011 to US$10.3 billion in 2015. Given that negotiations on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) are moving slowly, and trade figures are shrinking, it is vital that efforts to step up economic ties are taken up.
Third, while connectivity is at the core of India’s engagement with Southeast Asia, there are still no direct flights between India and Indonesia. Both sides need to enhance land, air, and maritime connectivity. To begin with a direct flight between Jakarta and New Delhi may be started, followed by linking of Bali and Yogyakarta with Varanasi and Puri.
Fourth, both countries are apprehensive of rising uncertainties due to China’s assertive postures in the region. China is seemingly moving away from its yesteryears’ paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s stated policy of “hide your strength, bide your time” and is flexing its muscle in the region through land reclamation and deployment of military forces in the South China Sea. While both India and Indonesia are not directly involved in the South China Sea dispute, their concerns on freedom of navigation and maintenance of peace and stability remain substantial. China’s tough stand on South China Sea and attempts to expand its reach in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are making the situation more uncertain and complicated.
Fifth, it is vital for both countries to enhance cooperation in the maritime domain, as both are stakeholders in the region’s changing maritime dynamics. While both countries are cooperating under the framework of several fora such as ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) Plus, East Asia Summit (EAS), and Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), it is crucial for them to set up a separate bilateral mechanism for addressing issues relating to maritime security. The recently held trilateral coast guards exercise with Japan is a positive step in that regard. More bilateral and multilateral joint military exercises aimed at jointly securing the Maritime Commons are crucial. Indonesia is currently facing a massive non traditional security crisis in the form of an earthquake in Aceh. Since India too is prone to earthquakes, the two countries can work together in fighting such natural calamities. There can be no better time for the countries to mull over the possible mechanisms to effectively deal with trans-boundary haze problem in Indonesia and environmental pollution in New Delhi.
Sixth, Jokowi’s visit indicates Indonesia’s desire to cooperate closely with India on bilateral as well as multilateral issues. India needs to “travel more than half” to engage Indonesia, which would also give a boost to its Act East Policy. Situated at the tri-junction Malacca Straits, Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia can substantially contribute to India’s Sagarmala Project.