BJP wrests power in Mumbai

The Bharatiya Janata Party may have succeeded in toppling the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi government in Maharashtra, but the longevity of the new dispensation, which has come to power with the help of rebel Shiv Sainiks, would depend on multiple factors.
Many veteran political observers are of the view that the BJP’s central leadership has needlessly undermined the position of Devendra Fadnavis by demoting him to the post of Deputy Chief Minister, when the fact is that his efforts had resulted in the MVA being outwitted in the saga leading to the resignation of Uddhav Thackeray.
There are also some who believe that Fadnavis has been assigned the new role because of strategic reasons. He is a Brahmin and if he had been anointed the CM once again, the Marathas led by Sharad Pawar would have united and created trouble for both the rebels and the BJP.
Therefore, Eknath Shinde, was essentially chosen as the head of the dispensation, since he is a Maratha who originally belongs to Satara, but is now based in Thane. Satara was the constituency of Pawar’s political mentor, Yashwant Rao Chavan and also the karambhoomi of Nana Patil, who resisted the British in 1942 and formed the Patri Sarkar (a parallel government) in the region.
The idea is evidently that Eknath would be the face of the government while the levers of power would be operated by Fadnavis, who has a good grasp over the bureaucracy and shall serve as the pivot. The arrangement could be similar to what existed in the MVA government where Pawar called the shots even though Uddhav was the Chief Minister. Pawar would now be substituted by Fadnavis and Eknath has already replaced Uddhav.
At least one former CM of the state when asked for his views on how things had unfolded in Maharashtra said that it was premature to comment on which way the political narrative would go. According to his assessment, the important questions would only arise after the culmination of the Bombay Municipal Corporation elections slated for September.
The BMC is a very rich body and what needs to be seen is how would the rebellion by some MLAs impact the outcome of these crucial elections. The BJP would want to be in power and so would Uddhav Thackeray and his followers. The NCP does not have much stakes in Mumbai and the Congress shall have to play second fiddle and help Uddhav unless it decides to contest on its own.
The BMC polls would also determine whether the rank and file of Shiv Sena was still with Uddhav or had deserted him. The sense which one gets is that the MLAs may have gone away, but the grassroots cadre of the party is intact and fully behind the Thackerays. Thus, in the event of Shiv Sena winning the election, a clear message would go out to the rebels who may have to rethink their future plans.
Historically, the Shiv Sena has always emerged stronger whenever there has been a rebellion as was seen when Chaggan Bhujbal left and subsequently Narayan Rane. Both of them also lost elections from their bastions without the support of the cadre which helped them earlier.
Eknath Shinde is a very seasoned politician, who has watched events unfold from very close quarters. He is bound to learn from the mistakes made by Rane and Bhujbal. His first attempt would be to somehow lay claim to the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray, which has been the most inspirational factor in the politics of Shiv Sena. This task is not going to be easy and unless Uddhav makes major mistakes, he would remain the sole beneficiary.
Secondly, Eknath Shinde may try to get the Shiv Sena symbol frozen with the hope that it would affect the Sena chances in the BMC election. This matter may see a prolonged legal battle but in the days of social media, making a new symbol popular is amongst the easiest tasks. It is not like it was in the past, that it would take months and even years to acquaint the electorate with the new symbol of a political party.
The Prime Minister has already congratulated Shinde and Fadnavis but his interest in the events that took place in Maharashtra is confined to only one specific factor. It is of prime importance for him that the BJP is able to bag the majority of seats in the state in the 2024 Parliamentary elections. Maharashtra has 48 seats, next only to UP and the BJP would want its tally to be boosted from here.
However, if the MVA continues to remain together and decides to contest the Lok Sabha polls as one entity, the BJP’s chances of winning on most seats would considerably diminish. This template would also negatively impact the new alliance subsequently in any other election as well.
Uddhav too has made several mistakes and one of the reasons why the revolt took place against him was because he was inaccessible. The Shiv Sena was being run by a coterie headed by his wife and son and this led to many misgivings amongst the elected MLAs who were ignored or sidelined.
Several of his supporters believe that he should not have quit on the eve of the floor test but should have utilised the opportunity of giving a strong political message from the House before stepping down. The season of politics has once again commenced. Between us.