There is much speculation as to whether Sharad Pawar knew of his nephew’s rebellion and if it was all stage-managed, or was he actually caught off guard as he is claiming. We are also told that he was in tears at the meeting of his flock on 5th July, a day when the Ajit Pawar faction also held its show of strength and raked up more numbers than his uncle. What must have hurt Sharad Pawar more than Ajit’s defection is the fact that his old friend and confidant Praful Patel also left along with Ajit. Praful has always been an Ahmed Patel like figure to Pawar, apart from being a close friend. Apparently, the break-up with the MVA was on the cards for long, but Supriya Sule had been resisting joining the NDA and siding with the BJP. Finally when Ajit Pawar had enough, he jumped ship and the timing was out of Praful’s hands. Regardless, more than Ajit Pawar’s barbs at his uncle’s old age, it is Praful’s exit that must really hurt both Pawar and his daughter. For his part, Praful has not said anything personal or hurtful against Senior Pawar and Supriya, though he has pointed out that Pawar himself was not averse to supporting the BJP but it was his daughter who stopped him. Hence, contrary to my initial belief, the more likely scenario seems to be that this is not a choreographed script. At the same time, how can we forget that only recently Sharad Pawar took the credit for Ajit Pawar’s earlier defection that led to a midnight swearing, by revealing recently that it was he who had encouraged Ajit to approach the BJP, in order to distract the Modi government from imposing Governor’s Rule on the state and thereby giving him time to cobble together an alliance between Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress? Also, don’t forget his admonition to Uddhav Thackeray when the Sena split. He had wondered how it was that the Thackerays did not know what was happening in their own party. So, was Pawar being too clever by half and now his words are coming back to haunt him?
UNITED NDA VS DIVIDED OPPOSITION
Choreographed or not, the bulk of the NCP is now with the NDA. We are told that other parties will follow. Overtures have been made by the BJP to the Akali Dal to bring it back to the fold in time for the Lok Sabha elections. An outreach has also been made to the RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary. The Jat leader must be weighing his options—don’t forget he was the first political leader to reach out to the farmers during their protest against the Modi government. But it is equally true that during the elections that followed the BJP did well in Western UP which is Jayant’s stronghold, indicating that the protests did not dent the saffron vote bank. Moreover, while the SP did well in the SP-RLD alliance, the latter did not do as well as was expected. Did the SP fail to transfer its Muslim vote to the RLD’s Jat dominated vote bank? These must be issues that Jayant’s party is considering, though officially both the RLD and the SAD have denied that they are moving towards the BJP. But watch this space.
BJP’s To-Do List
The BJP’s next target after the NCP could be the JD(U) in Bihar and the Congress in Himachal Pradesh. In Bihar, BJP strategists know that the RJD vote is fiercely committed to Lalu Yadav, while the JD(U) has done business with the BJP before, so it can be weaned away from Nitish Kumar. As for Himachal, the late Virbhadra Singh’s widow Pratibha is feeling sidelined and upset at not being made Chief Minister. Both Pratibha and her son Vikramaditya could be easy targets for the BJP. In addition, Amit Shah is also focusing on the Chhattisgarh election where the party lacks a tall leader after it has benched former CM Raman Singh. He is working hard on the ground to try and wrest the state back from the Congress. Currently both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are expected to go with the Congress.
PK BACK WITH THE BJP?
Is election strategist Prashan Kishor back to doing business with the BJP? According to the rumour mill it is he who is trying to effect a patch-up between the BRS leader K. Chandrashekar Rao and the BJP. The deal that is said to be on the table is that while the BJP will support the BRS at the Assembly level, the latter will support the BJP during the Lok Sabha polls. And then there is also the ED case against Chandrasekar Rao’s daughter, Kavitha Rao. But, having said this, will Chandrasekhar Rao, who has been talking about floating a non Congress-non BJP opposition front along with Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal, succumb so easily?