Sharad Pawar’s power play has come to haunt him, and he is desperately trying to hold on to his position as the undisputed leader of the Nationalist Congress Party, founded by him in 1999. In what started as a secret operation, with his tacit approval to begin with, has turned out to be a game, which has got out of his hands and is now being controlled by his nephew and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister, Ajit Pawar.
It is obvious that the senior Pawar went completely wrong with his calculations this time and after his authority has been challenged by his own flock, he is left with no alternative but to seek the support of Rahul Gandhi, who many in the Opposition circles believe could play a decisive role in the state’s politics. The question that is being asked is whether the time has run out for Pawar (Sr), and the clock symbol of his party too could be frozen or taken away by the breakaway faction, which is calling the shots.
Those who follow Maharashtra politics would know that Pawar has always had this extraordinary ability of manipulating situations and people, and even this time, he had in principle, approved the idea of his party breaking away from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and joining hands with the BJP and Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde).
He had figured out that the NCP MLAs could for some time go along with his nephew to the other side, but would eventually come back when he beckons them. Such a thing had happened in 2019 and he was thinking that the same would be replicated now, keeping his stellar position intact.
If Sharad Pawar’s consent would not have been there, his close loyalists such as Chhagan Bhujbal, Dilip Walse Patil, Sunil Tatkare and Praful Patel, would not have joined hands with Ajit Pawar, who has time and again made his ambition of becoming the Chief Minister known to one and all.
It all started with the meetings a leading industrialist had with Sharad Pawar, where he put across some proposals for the NCP to consider. Sharad Pawar, as is his habit, kept on delaying the decision and laid down conditions. The entire proposal was put in the fast forward mode when Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing a meeting in Bhopal some days ago, attacked the NCP and its leadership calling it corrupt.
The signal was clear to some of the leaders, facing charges of financial irregularities, and they decided to proceed ahead with the secret parleys Ajit Pawar was having with Devendra Fadnavis. Chhagan Bhujbal, who had spent more than two years in jail, convinced others, regarding their possible fate if they missed the opportunity that had come their way.
To begin with Sharad Pawar was confident that those who had moved away would return to him but events that followed have indicated that the differences had become very sharp and Ajit Pawar was in no mood to give up this time. Senior Pawar knows what he is up against and has so far not taken on his “erstwhile party colleagues” head on. He in his heart of hearts knows that he would now have to whip up sympathy for himself, and try and rebuild the party.
However, for this to happen, Sharad Pawar would have to be dependent on the largesse of Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, without whose support, he would stand decimated in this complex and complicated scenario that is fast emerging. Ironically, the split in the NCP is in fact not going to bring any political dividends for the BJP but has served to strengthen both the Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena.
Ajit Pawar is considered to be a very good administrator who has a hold over the MLAs, but he is not a mass leader; his son was defeated in the last Lok Sabha elections from his stronghold in 2019. Sharad Pawar is past his prime but has managed to establish his daughter Supriya Sule as his successor. However, the party’s prospects are bleak.
For those who need to understand the background, the NCP is a party which is essentially sub regional with strongholds in Western Maharashtra. Its ascendancy was because of the support it received from the Congress, particularly when Ahmed Patel was the political secretary to Sonia Gandhi. Patel would ensure that some of the winning seats of the Congress would be given to the NCP to contest. This way, he would continue to play an important role in the state’s politics.
Pawar has always been double-dealing with others and in 2004 when the NCP had two more seats than the Congress, it should have demanded the Chief Minister’s chair which would have at that juncture gone to Ajit Pawar. Instead the senior Pawar demanded four or five additional ministries and helped Patel to install Vilasrao Deshmukh as the Chief Minister in place of Sushil Kumar Shinde.
The common perception is that the Maharashtra Assembly elections would be held along with the Lok Sabha polls that may be preponed to this winter. The BJP wants to repeat its performance of 2019 when it along with the Shiv Sena had bagged 43 out of 48 seats. What stands in the way is the Congress and Uddhav faction, and Sharad Pawar is conscious of that.
Ajit Pawar is hoping that he will be the CM and Eknath Shinde may be inducted in the Union Cabinet. Between us.