‘BJP is in touch with Congress MLAs. Yet, the coalition government has more than 160 MLAs and breaking away a faction from Congress will not help the BJP.’
Political circles are abuzz about the possibility of a Maharashtra-like situation—where Ajit Pawar broke away from the NCP to join hands with BJP—being replicated in Bihar, as this could possibly break the coalition government of the Janata Dal United (JDU), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress in the state.
Leaders privy to the developments say that the BJP wants the RJD to support the BJP and form the coalition government, ditching its ally JDU. However, experts believe that there is no way that the present government can be toppled the way Maharashtra government was last year, when the BJP lured a majority of Shiv Sena MLAs to form their own split group to form a coalition government with the BJP. In the 243-seat strong Assembly in Bihar, there are 75 seats with RJD, 43 with JDU and around 19 with the Congress. To break the JDU, the saffron camp needs to get 30 MLAs to defect from the party in order to avoid the anti-defection law.
Moreover, party leaders say that there is no powerful second line leadership in either JDU or the RJD who can take such a big leap of going against their party with other legislators. A party insider said, “It is pretty much difficult for any leader in JDU and RJD to rally behind majority MLAs and defect from the party. In these two parties, Nitish Kumar and Tejasvi Yadav are supreme and there is no other leader who is even close to them in ‘popularity or power’ within the parties. So, breaking the government here is just wishful thinking.”
However, there are reports that the BJP is in touch with Congress MLAs. Yet, the coalition government has more than 160 MLAs and breaking away a faction from Congress will not help the saffron camp topple the government. A JDU MLA said, “There is no need of consolidation by Nitish Kumar among parliamentarians and legislators. There is no threat to the government. Nothing like Maharashtra crisis is going to happen. The recent meeting held by Nitish Kumar was just to reach out to them as he had not talked to them for more than a month. No big importance should be given to it politically.”
Moreover, party insiders in the JDU claim that the recent push against the coalition government in Bihar from the central agencies—where the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) filed the second charge-sheet against former Railway Minister Lalu Prasad, his wife Rabri Devi, their son and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav, and a dozen more in connection with the alleged land-for-job scam, was a rapid response from the saffron camp against the success of the Opposition unity meet.
In addition to that, senior JDU leader K.C. Tyagi had also said, “The timing (to file charge-sheet) has been decided keeping in mind the unity of Opposition parties… These investigative agencies were never misused like this earlier.”
Speculation of the BJP “bid” to topple the Bihar government came days after Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) turmoil broke the party into two, with Ajit Pawar joining hands with the BJP. After the NCP turmoil, Sushil Modi, who was the deputy Chief Minister in the JDU-BJP coalition government, said that a similar situation is brewing in Bihar and several JDU MPs and MLAs are in contact with the BJP.
He also told a leading news agency that many MPs fear that they will lose their tickets since Nitish Kumar joined hands with Rahul Gandhi and announced Tejashwi Yadav as his successor. He said, “Ever since Nitish Kumar accepted Rahul Gandhi as the leader for the next fight in a way and made Tejashwi Yadav his successor, there has been a situation of rebellion in JDU. Tejashwi Yadav is not ready and, therefore, a large number of MPs know that they would lose their tickets.”