‘If PM Modi campaigns aggressively in the state, there are chances that things could swing in BJP’s favour’.
New Delhi
As the Assembly elections are nearing in Rajasthan with the BJP’s house in disorder, the Congress, according to internal surveys, seems to have gained positive momentum for the upcoming polls. However, analysts in the state say that Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be instrumental in turning the tide for the BJP in the polls.
There are ongoing assessments which suggest that if the BJP projects ex-Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje as the CM face of Rajasthan, the saffron camp has high chances of winning the elections. If the BJP chooses otherwise, a majority of surveys show no clear picture and others indicate Congress on a stronger footing on the back of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s welfare schemes. A political strategist based in Rajasthan said, “BJP voters are confused and do not know how to vote and also don’t know who the CM candidate would be. Vasundhara Raje is popular across the state and other leaders are not so popular. So, if Raje comes in, she would be able to create her mark in every constituency she visits.” A political analyst who has worked on the ground and made assessments on a considerable area of the electoral space of Rajasthan said that the Modi factor could play a decisive role. For instance, if PM Modi campaigns aggressively in the state, there are chances that things could swing in BJP’s favour. The analyst said, “We talked to people in Gajendra Singh Shekhawat’s constituency, who is a Member Parliament from Jodhpur segment. Many people don’t care who the candidate would be. They say that they have voted for Modi and will continue to do so.” However, while seeking anonymity, a surveyor working in an independent survey agency said, “Our team has gone from constituency to constituency to assess the people’s minds. We have asked them who they want to be the next CM. While a majority of them say it should be Gehlot, there are several constituencies where the anti-incumbency against MLAs is very high and thus if the Congress does not choose other candidates on such seats, it is highly likely that the Congress would not return on such seats.”
The independent survey has shown that out of almost 99 existing incumbent seats that the Congress has, there are 38 seats where the anti-incumbency is more than 55% and people do not want to vote back the incumbent legislators (MLAs). The surveyor said, “But there is an exception to this. Most of these people on such constituencies have also said that if the Congress changes the candidates there, they would like to bring back the Gehlot government, as they find themselves satisfied with the work Gehlot has done.” A political observer said, “There are a lot of issues within the Congress and BJP. Both are struggling or at least will struggle in coming times when ticket distribution takes place. In Congress, there are two strong leaders (Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot) who would want to get the maximum number of tickets for their loyalists. And in BJP, besides Vasundhara Raje, there are also many leaders who want to get a maximum number of tickets. When that is settled, the Rajasthan elections could show us a much clearer picture.”