NEW DELHI: Iran may expect indirect support from Russia, China, North Korea and now Pakistan in the face of predictable US and European sanctions. It is in this backdrop that New Delhi has to assess the recent visit to Pakistan by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
The American continent has only one dominant nuclear-weapon power—the United States and there is little chance of another nuclear weapons power emerging in the Americas. But there are a total of eight nuclear-weapon powers in Asia and Europe. North Korean nuclear arsenal and growing missile tests have informed Japan and South Korea where there are voices who profess developing national nuclear deterrence as a more rational option than complete dependence on the extended nuclear deterrence provided by the United States.
In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s several statements that looked brandishing of nuclear weapons amidst the Ukraine War in response to NATO’s military assistance and political backing to Ukraine have recently brought back the nuclear agenda to media attention.
While neither Japan nor South Korea is currently suspected of having excessive nuclear ambitions, the rise of a new nuclear-weapon state in West Asia amidst Israel-Hamas war and low scale tit-for-tat Israel-Iran aerial attacks against each other’s territory cannot be completely ruled out.
In retaliation against Israeli missile strike on Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria and death of IRGC senior generals, Iran for the first time in its history fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel. Although there were no severe damages and the US, France, UK and Israel together neutralized about 90% of the Iranian drones, this indicated that Israel alone could not have done so.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan also assisted Israel in neutralizing the Iranian drones. Despite the warning by the international community, including the United States, to Israel not to respond to Iranian attacks disproportionately, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the IDF to strike Iran, especially Isfahan city that houses the nuclear laboratories. The missiles fell far away from the nuclear installations, but the message delivered by Israel was clear—Tehran’s nuclear power centres could be hit hard. Such a message was very hard-hearted coming after the alleged Israeli assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and cyberattacks on Tehran’s nuclear facilities in the recent past.
Tehran has always sworn upon its opposition to developing nuclear weapons. It is a signatory to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), it allows the IAEA to inspect its nuclear installations and activities, it has signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with five major powers and the EU to demonstrate its intention to acquire only civilian nuclear power. Israel, however, seems convinced that Iran has nuclear weapons ambitions. Tel Aviv pressed the US not to believe the Iranians and the Trump Administration withdrew from JCPOA. Biden has not yet been able to renegotiate an understanding with Iran, restore a modified JCPOA and end nuclear-related sanctions.
In the present situation, Tehran has signalled that it has a list of Israeli nuclear centres, meaning places where Israeli government maintains the undeclared nuclear weapons and that it can also knock out those targets. Secondly, and most importantly, it has also hinted that, if necessary, it can revisit its nuclear doctrine, implying that it can weaponise its nuclear capability. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently stated that Iran has the resources and technical knowhow to enrich weapons-grade uranium to make nuclear bombs in a matter of months.
Iran has been facing American containment policy and political isolation since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and its economic activities have enormously suffered due to its inability to trade with other countries due to American sanctions. In return, Tehran has taken up the cause of Palestine to an extent it does not consider Hamas as a terrorist organisation, it backs anti-Israeli Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, it supports anti-Saudi Houthis in Yemen, it considers Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah as resistance forces and not terrorist groups, it has engaged Israel in a shadow war for years and now in the backdrop of its open conflict with Israel, it cannot be discounted that the Iranian leadership may espouse a nuclear weapons option.
If it does, it is not going to be a painless affair, and it will surely be very costly for Iran. However, Iran may expect indirect support from Russia, China, North Korea and now Pakistan in the face of predictable US and European sanctions. It is in this backdrop that New Delhi has to assess the recent visit to Pakistan by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Iran and Pakistan were close friends. Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan. Iran was supportive of Pakistan during 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan wars, both were part of the Central Treaty Organisation, and Tehran until recently sympathized with the Pakistani agenda on the Kashmir issue. Pakistan and Tehran have long signed the agreement, though incomplete, to lay a gas pipeline for the supply of Iranian gas to Pakistan, and Iran sells electricity to Pakistan as well.
There have been many interruptions in the relationship, which turned serious in January this year with Iran and Pakistan firing missiles at each other targeting terrorist hideouts in their respective territories. But with Raisi’s visit differences over anti-Iranian terrorists on Pakistani soil and vice versa was not only resolved, the two countries made common cause against anti-Iranian and anti-Pakistani-terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan. There was also a subtle signal that Tehran, unlike impressions carried by some in India, would not keep quiet on the Kashmir issue. Raisi’s silence on the Kashmir issue, during a public media event after the Pakistani Prime Minister raised it, was interpreted by the Indian media as a snub to Islamabad. However, it figured in the joint statement which says that the Kashmir issue should be resolved peacefully and through negotiations “on the basis of” wishes of the people of the region.
In addition to the subtle change in Iran’s position on the Kashmir issue, another key possibility is Iran-Pakistan collaboration in the nuclear and WMD field. The US State Department was quick to remind Pakistan that the US “would continue to disrupt and take action against proliferation networks and concerning weapons of mass destruction procurements wherever they may occur…”
In West Asia, who is with whom is difficult to ascertain. There are no clear lines of differences. Arab countries have taken diverse stands on Israel’s war against Hamas and Iran-Israeli conflict. No one needs to be surprised if a full-fledged war takes place and engulfs the region. New groupings of states may take shape and five de jure and de facto or nuclear capable powers—Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan and Iran—may combine strength in the fluid strategic situation.
Israel shows determination to annihilate Hamas. Hamas may go the LTTE way, but it may also survive the Taliban way. ISIS appeared dead some time back and now it is surfacing with new faces and tactics. Resurgence of the nuclear danger in combination with resilience of the terrorist groups are a recipe for disaster in a region that is the heart of the global hydrocarbon resources and the engine of the global growth. India needs to be alert and on its toes and constantly monitor developments in the region. More than two years of war in Ukraine, more than six months of war in Gaza, the tension in the Korean Peninsula, militarization of South China Sea and the dangerous flashpoint of Taiwan do not allow us to be complacent.
Chintamani Mahapatra is Founder Chairperson, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies and former Professor at JNU.