Imagine opening your bedroom window and looking nervously across the river at your neighbouring country. This is what residents of the city of Narva in Estonia have done every day since 22 February 2022, almost three years ago when President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. With just the width of the river separating them from Russia, the people of Narva are concerned that they’re next on Putin’s list in his quest to re-establish the Russian Empire. More than 80 percent of Narva’s 56,000 inhabitants are ethnic Russians, a legacy of the centuries during which Narva was part first of the Russian empire and then of the Soviet Union before becoming independent.Some 96 percent of Narva’s population speak Russian and a third hold Russian passports.In 2022, not long after his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin claimed that Narva, like Kyiv, “is historically part of Russia.”
Ethnic Russians, who make up almost a quarter of the population of Estonia, the northernmost of the three Baltic States, have become more integrated into society in the 33 years since the country became independent. As the USSR began to crumble under Gorbachev, the parliament of the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic held a referendum on 9 May 1990, in which 78 percent of Estonians voted for independence, which was declared on 20 August 1991, just four months before the “crumble” ended in the total “collapse” of the Soviet Union. Estonians are well aware that in 2005, Putin described the collapse as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” and believe that he is trying to re-create it, starting with Ukraine. Many Estonians believe that they are next on Putin’s list.
When it started, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine divided opinion along familiar lines in Estonia. Ethnic Estonians saw Russia clearly as the aggressor, while ethnic Russians blamed NATO, having promised Ukraine future membership. Across Eastern Europe the invasion evoked long-standing fears, especially among the three Baltic countries, as Russian and Soviet expansion had shaped their policies for centuries. I recall travelling from Tallinn in Estonia to Vilnius in Lithuania via Riga in Latvia just after the collapse of the Soviet Union, talking to politicians who told me they were determined to join NATO at the earliest possible moment in order to feel safe from the claws of the Bear. These three countries were the first from the Soviet Union to have a British embassy in their capitals, and in 2004 they all became members of both the European Union and NATO, having conducted referenda in which more than 90 percent voted in support.
When Vladimir Putin wrote his essay in 2021 claiming that Ukraine was not a legitimate nation, alarm bells rang in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, because he had made similar arguments about them. Conscious that they must play their part in defending themselves, all three countries increased their spending on defence. Estonia, the smallest Baltic state, is already spending 3.4 percent of its GDP on defence and plans to ratchet that up to 3.7 percent, far ahead of bigger EU countries. Latvia and Lithuania are planning to achieve 3 percent this year. Estonia has maintained conscription since 1991, while Lithuania reinstated it in 2015 and Latvia this year.
With substantial numbers of ethnic Russians, allthree Baltic countries are aware that the Kremlin is a past master of exploiting differences to claim a special role in protecting the Russian diaspora. It did that in Georgia and Moldova, and protecting its ‘Russian brothers’ was the Kremlin’s pretext for its invasion of Ukraine. The worry in the Baltic capitals is that the Kremlin could play the same game and first try to seize Estonia, the one with the highest percentage of ethnic Russians, and then dare NATO to launch a global war in response. A failure to react would show that NATO’s Article 5 common defence provision is totally meaningless.
Poland, too, is concerned about the threat from Moscow. In an interview a year ago with the American conservative commentator, Tucker Carlson, Putin claimed that he had “no interest” in attacking Poland, saying that he would only do so if it were to attack Russia. ButPolish commentators point out that in January 2022 Putin said that he had no plans to invade Ukraine, just days before he sent tanks and troops over the border. Because of deep concerns about Russian intentions, Poland, Central Europe’s largest economy, is on track to lead NATO in terms of defence spending relative to the size of its economy for the second year running. This is set to rise even further to 4.7 percent of GDP next year, taking spending on defence to a record 37 billion euros.
The elephant in the room apropos NATO spending is, of course, Donald Trump, who assumes office as US President again in a week’s time. Without question, the return of Trump has sharpened minds across the Organisations 32 member countries. Last February, Trump said that he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO members who failed to fulfil their financial commitments to the alliance, a statement which provoked aninternational outcry. A month later he downplayed the remark, saying that it was merely a negotiating tactic to get members of NATO to pay more towards the alliance’s collective defence.
Trump has long complained about NATO finances, accusing the 28 European members of not pulling their weight on military spending, taking for granted that they can rely on the United States as a defensive shield. But he has never demonstrated that he understands how NATO works, mischaracterising it instead as a club that subsists on membership fees. In 2004, NATO countries formalised a commitment to spend 2 percent of their GDP on their own defence, but members do not pay subscription fees and do not “owe” the alliance money for defence. The benchmark is voluntary and there are no penalties enshrined in NATO’s founding treaty for falling short. A confused Trump told GB News in an interview last year that “I believe that the United States is paying 90 percent of NATO – it could be 100 percent. It’s a most unfair thing. And don’t forget, it’s more important to them than it is to us. We have a nice, big ocean between us.” In a press conference last week, Trump claimed that he had earlier “saved” NATO and now wants a 5 percent target(America currently contributes 3.4 percent of its GDP). Estonian PM Kristen Michal was delighted, saying that “this is the message Estonia has been advocating for years, and is a clear signal to Putin that he should not dare test NATO’S nerves, and we are prepared for it.” But many European countries are facing budget crunches and are struggling to reach even the 2 percent goal.
Meanwhile, back in Narva, Estonia’s third largest city is already struggling to stave-off threats from Russia. In recent months there have been near constant provocations from Moscow, from satellite navigation jamming to blaring propaganda, surveillance drones and buzzing barrage balloons marked with the “Z” of Russia’s armed forces. “We are not intending to start a third world war,” said Egert Belitsev, the director general of Estonia’s Police and Border Guard last month, “but we see the constant attempts to provoke us to do something which would escalate the situation.”
Last summer, Russia removed all border buoys along the 50 mile stretch running along the middle of the river Narva. Without these floating markers, Estonian border guards had difficulty distinguishing between accidental trespassers and brazen attempts to break into the European Union. South of Narva, the border runs 80 miles through Lake Peipus, after which it snakes south a further 85 miles, cutting through swampland. In summer, this provides a natural barrier, but in winter it freezes and could become an airfield for invading troops.
There are some 900 British soldiers deployed in the country as part of a multinational NATO force at the Tapa air base. If Russia were to strike, it’s unlikely that these forces, along with Estonia’s 7,700 active personnel, boosted to 43,000 in the event of war, would have enough firepower to repel an offensive. Some European countries are already making plans to evacuate their nationals as a contingency.NATO leaders recall that Russia provoked Ukrainian forces in the eastern part of the country for years before invading Ukraine. If after his inauguration Donald Trump stops the war in a day, something he has boastedabout on many occasions, is Putin planning to then turn his attention northwards?
John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently a visiting fellow at the University of Plymouth.