Sunak has been warned by the influential 1922 Committee not to go for a 2 May election, yet Downing Street aides and other MPs are all for a May date, fearing a leadership contest if the date is set for October.
2024 is the year of consequential elections. Much of Europe is leaning to the right, meanwhile in UK the left seems increasingly confident they will receive the majority. David Lammy’s, Labour shadow Foreign Secretary, confidence has surged after his visit to India with Jonathan Reynolds the Shadow Business Secretary. Lammy recognized India as an impending superpower and on return launched “Labour Indians” in an attempt to solicit support from British Indians and the Indian diaspora; he vowed that if elected he would complete the FTA that since its inception in 2022 has enjoyed 14 rounds of negotiation. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his Shadow Cabinet’s election talk has taken a more professional and statesman like turn, but despite the rhetoric Conservatives say Labour cannot be trusted, they will revert to the Jeremy Corbyn-era default position of anti-India; in fact, soon after his return from Delhi Lammy met with the Pakistan High Commissioner Dr M. Faisal and tweeted what “a great partner Pakistan is”.
George Galloway’s recent election to MP of Rochdale for the Worker’s Party of Britain (WPB) is likely to stand at least 12 MP candidates in the General Election. This will present significant competition for Labour in Pakistan-centric communities, Galloway is a staunch defender of Muslims, in his byelection victory speech Galloway dedicated his win to Gaza. Last year Labour MPs were intimidated by Hamas supporters when Sir Keir did not immediately call for an Israel-Gaza ceasefire. The WPB will act as the socialist equivalent of the populist Reform UK party, formerly UKIP, that offers a platform to Conservative radicals who feel that since 2019 Britain has been overtaken by illegal immigration that has broken all social services. The question is will Starmer support Israel’s right to self-defence or give in to the Islamists who elected Galloway in Rochdale; Starmer hopes to maintain support from the large Muslim population constituencies, UK has 20 constituencies that have a 30%-plus Muslim electorate. Last month, the Speaker of the House of Commons Sir Lindsay Hoyle caved in to persuasion from Starmer to overrule the Scottish National Party’s “immediate ceasefire” motion in favour of Labour’s “humanitarian ceasefire” motion; this decision apparently avoided Labour MPs voting against their party.
Within Labour circles Peter Mandelson is considered a key influence and there are rumours of nepotism among the candidate selection process; the former Prime Minister Gordon Brown rubbished Starmer’s idea of a “gang of four” who would take executive decisions before presenting them to the full Cabinet, Brown said the plan reminded him of “the Chinese Communist Party”.
Conservative voters are split, the latest YouGov polling positions the Conservatives as stationary at 20% while Labour has risen a point to 47% and Reform UK outperforming both the Greens and Liberal Democrats with 13%. After former Tory party Deputy Chairman Lee Andersen defected to Reform UK, their leader Richard Tice is expecting more defections, this is bad news for PM Rishi Sunak whose popularity has dropped to 25%, which is even lower than Boris Johnson’s at 29%. It is reported that it will be difficult for Sunak to reclaim voters who have in their exasperation defected to Reform UK.
Richard Tice sees himself as the Tory nemesis, his agenda is to eradicate the Conservatives, he is driven by the idea that Brexit was betrayed and only the total deposition of the Tories will do. Policy-wise he is thought to be pro-Ukraine, anti-India, anti-net zero and half-hearted on reducing immigration.
Jeremy Hunt’s budget did not to restore Tory voters’ loyalty, it seems like a precursor to some upcoming manifesto 2024 promises; it did not address the issues affecting people personally, the calamitous state of the NHS, inadequate policing, the lack of affordable housing, the shocking state of UK’s road infrastructure, underfunding of the judiciary, the diminishing resources for the armed forces, net zero targets and net migration. How will the disappointed Tory vote? If voters have enjoyed a positive experience in the above sectors, they will most likely vote but a negative experience will produce the opposite, presently negative experiences trump positive ones.
Sources say the Tory campaign will be based on the 80/20 principle, to keep 80 marginal seats and to win 20 targets, this implies they will keep all the Tory safe seats. However, this strategy has been discredited as the pressures of mass immigration have put on public services, as listed above. In 2022 the government spent £2Billlion+ on housing and looking after illegal immigrants.
In a surprise turn of events Boris Johnson may reappear to campaign in marginal Red Wall seats, reportedly Downing Street has been considering a new role for the former Prime Minister; the Daily Mail claimed that some MPs and Peers led by the New Conservative Group would like Johnson to front a referendum on quitting the ECHR on the same day as the General Election, they sees this as the only way to avoid a Tory wipeout.
Defence and foreign policy will feature above the normal in the upcoming election; even the 2.5% is not guaranteed and two ministers, Tom Tugendhat and Anne-Marie Trevelyan, have broken ranks to plead for the 2.5% defence spending, the RAF do not have enough operational Hawk T2 trainer jets, training is now outsourced US and Italy. Despite tensions in the Red Sea, Indo-Pacific and the Middle East the Chancellor did not allocate extra funds for the Royal Navy, RAF and the shrinking British Army or the MOD. The strength of UK Forces personnel on 1 January 2024 was 183,130, a decrease of 4% since 2023.
As yet no date has been published for the general election, Sunak has been warned by the influential 1922 Committee not to go for a 2 May election, yet Downing Street aides and other MPs are all for a May date, fearing a leadership contest if the date is set for October. Friday 27 March is the last date that a 2 May election can be revealed, this allows for the usual 5 weeks of campaigning.
Everyone is waiting for Sunak to pull a rabbit out of the hat, the only rabbit that anyone can think of is sending a plane full of illegals to Rwanda just before the election is announced. This week it was reported that illegals will be offered up to £3,000 to be deported to Rwanda.
Enter Nigel Farage who is believed to be more Tory than Tice, a fun post-election conspiracy theory doing the rounds is that Farage will enter the House of Lords by appointment, as did Zac Goldsmith and David Cameron. It has been noted that Liz Truss is propping up Priti Patel, join the dots and it is possible Patel may emerge as the next Tory Leader with Farage as Shadow Home Minister and Truss as Shadow Chancellor. You could not make it up.