The ruling Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh has split — well almost. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is mourning the loss of upper caste votes after the Daya Shankar episode and it is now the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that finds the horizon clear in the upcoming UP Assembly elections.
The strife in the Samajwadi Party has begun to take its toll on the health of the party with the warring factions fighting a pitched battle. Despite assurances by SP chief Mulayam Singh that all is well within the family and the party, the battle continues with state SP chief Shivpal Yadav expelling leaders owing loyalty to Akhilesh Yadav and the latter retaliating by sacking ministers close to his uncle.
With a split looming large on the horizon, Muslims and Yadavs who form the core vote bank of the Samajwadi Party are drifting away.
“Muslims will not vote en bloc for the SP. They will go with the party that is in a position to defeat communal forces. The SP, at the moment, is waiting to implode and we do not know what is going to happen in the coming months. Our vote could go to the Congress if they put up strong candidates,” said Khalid, a young graduate from Muzaffarnagar.
According to him, the BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) are “unreliable” since they have both entered into alliances with the BJP.
“The SP betrayed Muslims in western UP — whether it was during the Muzaffarnagar riots, or the Dadri incident or the Kairana episode. Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav did not visit the riot-affected areas even once, which show his insensitivity towards Muslims. But in the absence of any viable alternative, they may have to vote for the SP,” said a journalist based in Meerut.
The BSP has been trying hard to woo Muslims, but the fact that it has formed government thrice in UP with BJP support is a major stumbling block and rival parties make sure to keep reminding Muslims about this.
Moreover, the BSP has almost lost upper caste support after the Daya Shankar incident and its Dalit vote base has partially shifted to the BJP.
The BSP is grappling with the problem of defections and desertions and apart from Mayawati, the party does not have a Dalit, OBC or MBC face after leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya, R.K. Chaudhary and Daddu Prasad left the party.
The Congress, on the other hand, is still weak and tottering in UP and the fate of the party in the coming elections depends largely on candidate selection. If the Congress can manage to put up strong candidates, it could mop up Muslim and Dalit votes from the SP and BSP.
The BJP, in this scenario, finds itself comfortably positioned. With a section of backward castes and Dalits already in its kitty, the party is now confident that Yadavs will also extend their support to the BJP.
State BJP president Keshav Maurya says, “The Akhilesh regime has confined the development to its own family and the rest of the Yadavs have not benefitted. Now that the Samajwadi ship is sinking, why should anyone, including Yadav, support the party that has no future? We are confident of getting Yadav votes in large numbers this time.”
The BJP is not worried about a Congress “resurgence” in Uttar Pradesh. “The party that now rests on the shoulder of Prashant Kishor and relies more on the strategist than its own workers, can hardly be expected to pose a challenge to the BJP. The achievements of the Narendra Modi government and the image of the party will take us to a two-third majority in the state this time,” he says confidently and as things stand today, the confidence may not exactly be misplaced.