With its significant representation in the Lok Sabha, the state of Uttar Pradesh has always played a key role in politics in India. Indeed, most of the country’s Prime Ministers have hailed from the state, at least so far as their constituencies are concerned. UP has been the home base of the Nehru family since the 1920s, while even Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose his UP constituency, rather than that in Gujarat to retain after the 2014 polls. UP has given the BJP fully 72 seats in the Lok Sabha, but for which the party would have been nowhere close to its current majority in the Lower House. It was the depth and scope of the sweep in India’s most populous state which proved the dominant factor in persuading all the key stakeholders and associates of the BJP that Amit Shah was the individual most suited to take over the reins of the party once Rajnath Singh transferred from party organisation to government as the Union Home Minister. Certainly, the results in UP will be very consequential for Mr Shah, as a good showing in the state during the Assembly elections (through the BJP getting either a majority in the state Assembly or coming close) would silence the few critics that he has and make the going smooth for him up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Contrarily, should the BJP slide to the second position, there would be rough weather ahead for Mr Shah, who has become known across the country as the most trusted lieutenant of PM Modi, along with Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. Indeed, several commentators speak of the Central government as a triumvirate of PM Modi, FM Jaitley and BJP president Shah, and it is clear that on practically every important occasion, it is either Jaitley or Shah who speaks authoritatively on matters relating to government and party, whenever the PM himself chooses to remain silent. The degree of success of the 8 November de-legitimisation of 86% of India’s paper currency will be core towards determining the quantum of success of the Finance Minister in handling the massive responsibility for which he was personally chosen by the Prime Minister. In like fashion, the UP results would be key towards ascertaining the degree of success enjoyed by the BJP president in ensuring that the party reap the full benefit of the administrative steps taken by Modi to ensure that he retain the record of effective administration that he won in the 13 years that he served as Chief Minister of the forward looking state.
UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has been handicapped from Day One of his five-year term by the insistence of his father, Mulayam Singh Yadav, that the old warhorses of the Samajwadi Party will be given sometimes overriding importance in the administration of the youthful CM. Only in recent weeks has Akhilesh Yadav done what should have been attempted years before, which was to neutralise the Old Guard in his party, many of whom are toxic to the future of SP. Indeed, a section of the Old Guard appears to be working in tandem with a part of the Yadav family to slow down the initiatives of Akhilesh Yadav, who overall has nevertheless built up a good image across the state. However, it is not certain that the last minute surgery done by the UP CM will rescue his party from defeat at the hands of either the BJP or the BSP. During her last stint as CM of the state, Ms Mayawati distinguished herself by improving law and order substantially, a factor which voters still remember. The often successful protégé of BSP founder Kanshi Ram has sought to bring together the Dalit and Muslim communities, and the success of her party will hinge on the extent to which this tactic has worked to knit together two very large groups of voters into a single bloc. The BJP is depending on the good name of PM Modi rather than on any state leader, and is making the case that an administration run by a person chosen by PM Modi would have the best chance of putting UP on the fast track to development, especially because of the higher synergy between State and Centre. PM Modi has often asked people to trust his judgement in personnel and policies, and has imprinted a unique stamp on both during the nearly three years during which he has occupied the country’s most consequential job. 11 March will show which of the many calculations made by political leaders have been proved correct. Opinion polls give the result to the BJP, and should it win in UP, it would be clear that the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes has not merely been accepted, but welcomed by voters in India’s most significant state in terms of politics. UP is a test that must be won for the NDA to ensure that the remainder of its term will be as stable as the Modi era has been thus far.