Will the US and the West want peace? Of course not. They are happy to fight Russia till the last Ukrainian, and weaken it even more.
THE WAR SO FAR
It began at five in the morning on 24 February 2022. Russian tanks and troops had been “exercising” along the Ukrainian border for months, and everyone knew that an invasion was coming. But, as in so many wars before it, most simply hoped that it would somehow not take place. When Russian tanks and troops moved into Ukraine, all along its 2,400 km long frontage in three broad fronts, these hopes were belied. The Russia-Ukraine war had begun.
Contrary to what western media leads us to believe, the Russian air and land offensive towards Kyiv in the first week of the war, was actually quite brilliant and audacious. They almost took over Hostomel—an airfield just 30 km north-west of Kyiv—on the first day of the war and were repelled only in the nick of time by a rapid Ukrainian counter attack. The land offensive too halted in an inexplicable week-long delay that allowed the Ukrainians to fortify the capital city and bring in reinforcements. Wisely, the Russians did not storm the city, but withdrew to focus on other sectors.
The war entered its next phase in the period of April to October, as the Russians crept up in the south and the east, capturing the coastal areas of the south, and the port towns of Kherson, Melitopol and Mariupol. In the east, they took over the Donbas, village after village, town after town, in a slow relentless grind that moved forward just around 3-4 kilometres a day. By October, the Russians had captured over 20% of the country and consolidated their grip on the coastal areas and most of Donbas. And then the Ukrainians counter attacked.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in October-November marked a major turning point of the war. Beefed up by an infusion of trained recruits and new equipment, but most importantly, US intelligence that provided details of gaps in Russian positions, the Ukrainians first drew the Russians towards the south with a brilliant deception plan. They then attacked in the northeast, sweeping through the depleted Russian lines in a swift offensive that recaptured over 6,000 square kilometres in less than a fortnight. Then, while the Russians were still reeling, they attacked in the south again, recaptured Kherson and pushed the Russians behind the Dnieper river.
As winter came in, the war entered a phase of frozen stalemate where the frontline has literally solidified along the line of the Dnieper river in the south and the Oskil river in the northeast. The fighting was akin to the trench warfare of World War I, with both sides waging steady attrition on each other. In that attritional form of warfighting, the Russians have the upper hand. At the same time, local offensives continued—by the Russians in the Bakhmut region of Donbas and the Ukrainians in Zaporizhzhia. But both sides are basically consolidating their positions, waiting for the spring thaw of March, when they would be able to launch fresh offensives to decide the issue.
WHAT WILL THE NEXT YEAR BRING?
As the war enters its second year, it seems to herald the start of a new phase. Both sides have used the winter pause to beef up their own preparations. Russia has fortified its positions in the Donbas and the coastal areas and inducted about 120,000 freshly trained conscripts. Even as we go to print, the first rumblings of an impending Russian offensive have begun, with around 90 probing attacks all along the front. The Russians could attack in the Donbas or in the south, to recapture territories lost in the Ukrainian counter offensive, and even go further westwards. It could even launch a more ambitious offensive towards Kyiv, that would suck in Ukrainian troops from other sectors. Ukraine too has been bolstered by around 80,000 recruits trained in the UK, Canada and the US, along with over $150 billion in hardware and a promised consignment of 310 Leopard Challenger and Abrams tanks which could tilt the scales. They too could restart their southern offensive, perhaps to recapture Mariupol (an action favoured by Zelenskyy)—which could make it difficult for Russia to hold on to its positions in the south or in Crimea.
A year into the war and both sides are exhausted. They have been almost 80,000-100,000 casualties on both sides and men and equipment are worn out after months of continual fighting. In spite of the huge infusion of equipment and manpower, it is unlikely that either side will be able to make decisive military gains that could end the war. Offensive, counter-offensive and long periods of defensive battles will continue, just like in World War II between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union which ebbed and flowed for four long years before reaching the conclusion.
Both sides have spoken about “peace” and “negotiation”, but at this point, it seems a far cry. Zelenskyy has proposed a 10-point peace formula, which he is to raise at the United Nations General Assembly, and Putin has stated that he is “open to negotiations”. But there is little common ground. Zelenskyy insists, quite rightly, that Russia should vacate “the last inch of Ukrainian soil”, while Putin insists that the captured areas will be retained by Russia. The sham referendum in the provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia has set the tone for it. Talks and a negotiated peace thus seem difficult, but not wholly impossible.
India can play a role in getting the two parties to the negotiating table. India continues to have good ties with Russia and Ukraine, and both Zelenskyy and Putin share a good equation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Perhaps India can help get both sides to the negotiating table, at least. Then a ceasefire or perhaps even an armistice, as between North and South Korea, could be worked out, to make the guns fall silent, while the two sides hammer out a long-term solution.
Perhaps an acceptable solution would lie in Russia withdrawing to the February 2022 boundaries, but is allowed to retain Crimea. Ukraine could abjure its bid for NATO membership, but could be permitted into the European Union. It would also be provided security guarantees against any future invasion on its sovereignty. This might provide a face-saving exit to both sides.
But will the US and the West want peace? Of course not. They are happy to fight Russia till the last Ukrainian, and weaken it even more. There is also a growing feeling in the West that Russia must be defeated, so it does not repeat its actions again. But it misses the basic point that Russia is too strong to be defeated, and Ukraine is not strong enough to attain victory. So the war will continue, ebbing and flowing. It could perhaps eventually stabilise along a Line of Contact, the line dividing the on-ground position of Russian and Ukrainian forces. Like the LOC between India and Pakistan, this would be a dividing line that festers and erupts continually in a state of no-war-no-peace. That line could also become the de facto line between Russia and rest of Europe and establish another iron curtain there.
A war that everyone thought would be over in a fortnight or so has gone on for over a year. Will it finally come to an end or will the guns continue to roar in the next year as well? Even worse, could it expand in scope and suck in NATO, or perhaps even China into a global conflagration? Any of the possibilities are likely, and as of now, it seems to be headed for a long war with no end in sight.
Ajay Singh is the author of six books, including Russia-Ukraine War: The Conflict and Its Global Impact. He is a recipient of the Rabindranath Tagore International Award for Art and Literature.