However, in certain cities of Malwa, the vote may get divided between Congress and BJP.
New Delhi: In Punjab, three regions, Malwa, Majha and Doaba will play distinctive roles in the Assembly elections. Out of Punjab’s 117 Assembly seats, Malwa has 69, while Majha and Doaba have 25 and 23 seats respectively.
“In the Malwa region, if the Kisan factor does not work, then the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may have a strong chance to win. However, in certain cities of Malwa, there are chances that the votes will get divided between Congress and BJP. Since AAP has declared Bhagwant Mann as their Chief Ministerial candidate, who belongs from Sangrur, there is a high chance that the people may vote for him. Also, in Barnala and Mansa, AAP has a strong presence,” sources privy to the election campaign told The Sunday Guardian.
Looking from the cultural and geographical aspect of the Doaba and Majha regions, it has been said that most of the Scheduled Caste population in Doaba is literate, prosperous and socially integrated. Before the 1990s, Congress had a stronghold in Doaba, however, afterwards, the alliance of Akali-BJP made inroads here. Most of the districts in Doaba—Kapurthala, Hoshiarpur, Nawanshahr—have a high Dalit presence. However, most Hindus in the Majha region are concentrated in Amritsar and Pathankot.
Known as the central part of Punjab and the border between India and Pakistan, the Majha region is mostly loyal to Akali Dal but in 2017, owing to outrage over sacrilege occurrences, only two leaders from Akali Dal were elected. However, AAP doesn’t have any strong influence in this region. In the 1980s, the four districts of Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Tarn Taran, and Pathankot were prone to drug and gun trafficking from across the border, making it a hotspot of insurgency.
However, another journalist told this correspondent, “The people in the industrial areas like Ludhiana, Patiala are a bit non-associationists with any political parties, it is for them to decide. However, in the Majha region, Akali Dal is stronger, while in the Doaba region, BSP is partly stronger.”
As per the local data collected by various channels, AAP has a stronger presence in the Malwa region roughly across 400 villages as the “Channi” factor may work stronger amongst the Dalit population. However, depending on some regions in Malwa, there is a possibility that Congress and BJP may find some traction. “BJP is trying to strengthen its position in certain regions of Malwa, but it is for the people to decide,” a source closer to the party told this correspondent.
In 2007, the SAD-BJP coalition trailed the Congress in Malwa but swept Majha and Doaba. In 2012, the SAD-BJP outperformed the Congress, however, the Congress received more votes in Malwa than the SAD-BJP. But in 2017, Congress gained 40 seats—22 seats in Majha and 15 seats in Doaba—while the AAP gained 18 seats.