NEW DELHI: The attacks are not being launched sporadically. A lot of thinking is going on when deciding on the date and the target of the attack.
The security forces suffered more than 1,500 fatalities in the preceding three years in Jammu and Kashmir at the hands of Pakistan-backed and -based terrorists, when the Indian Army, under the command of the then Chief of Army Staff General N.C. Vij, Defence Minister George Fernandes and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee sometime in the starting days of 2003, decided to launch a military operation at Hilaka, Surankote block, Poonch district in the south-eastern slopes of the Pir Panjal range which separates Srinagar valley from Jammu.
Intelligence gathered over time had indicated the presence of a large number of terrorists who had become so emboldened that they had built temporary structures for accommodation from which they would emerge, engage the security forces and disappear again.
The said area was less than 15 km from the Line of Control and according to local journalists, had been under the virtual domination of members of terror groups and their sympathisers since 1999.
The intelligence report, at the time, had estimated that terrorists in the range of 3,000-3,500 numbers were moving from Jammu to Kashmir and vice-versa with at least 2,000 waiting at their launch pads in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir while waiting for their turn to enter into India.
This operation, named “Sarp Vinash” (Eliminate Snakes) was executed with the strength of a division size formation (around 15,000 combat forces and 8,000 support staff) which involved men from seven battalions and two brigades. The jawans and the commanders that took part in the operation were from the 9 Para Special Forces, 163 Infantry Brigade, 12/4 Gorkha Rifles, 15 Garhwal Rifles, 4 Garhwal Rifles, 12, 16 and 20 Rashtriya Rifles.
By the time March ended, troops were moved to their designated places and on 21 April, the said operation was launched.
For this operation, three MI-17 helipads were constructed in the region for operational requirements. The Hindustan Aeronautics Limited developed the light attack helicopter “Lancer”, derived from Cheetah helicopter that had bullet proof front panels and crew seat and was armed with two gun-cum-rocket pods-one on each side. Each pod carried one 12.7mm gun and three 70mm rockets. It was the rarest of rare occasion when attack helicopters were pressed into service inside the borders.
When the operation ended, Gen N.C. Vij, personally flew into the area of operations and congratulated the troops. As per officials, the operation resulted in the elimination of 65 terrorists and arrest of three, busting of 119 hideouts and capture of 79 major weapons and large quantities of war-like stores. During the operations, five Army personnel were killed and five were wounded.
In addition, substantial quantities of radio sets and other communications equipment were also recovered, besides rations enough to feed 400 men for more than three weeks were found.
The terrorists groups, after this operation ended, on the advice of their handlers, decided to leave the Jammu area and move back and concentrate in Kashmir, which was a much “easier” base to operate from.
After the Sarp Vinash military operation concluded, it took 13 years for the Army’s fatalities to reach the same level of 1,500 seen in the previous three years.
The recent death of five Indian Army personnel in a terrorist attack on their convoy on 8 July near Badnota village, Kathua in Jammu has the potential to force the government in Delhi to undertake something similar to what happened in 2003.
Jammu region, sources said, has witnessed at least 30 terror attacks since 2021 in which the fatalities among the armed forces is more than 30. Twenty one have died in six attacks in 2023 alone.
The Badnota attack came on the death anniversary of Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan Wani, who was killed in an encounter on 8 July 2016. It came less than one month after the 9 June terror attack on a civilian bus carrying Hindu pilgrims that was targeted in Reasi in which nine were killed. The attack happened as the new Narendra Modi cabinet was taking oath in Delhi.
Intelligence sources say that these attacks are not being launched sporadically and it is clear that a lot of thinking is going on when deciding on the date and the target of the attack. What will be more worrying for the security forces is that Jammu region, when compared to Kashmir, was and is seen as more peaceful and under “control”, but the increasing number of attacks has dented that perception, which will lead to forces being diverted from Kashmir and Line of Control to Jammu region.
Sources said that already the number of troops stationed at its peak in the state has come down substantially with forces being diverted to other areas due to the situation in the northern and eastern borders with China and Manipur.
It’s worth noting that the state must hold Assembly elections by 30 September, as mandated by a Supreme Court directive. However, the Central government has the option to request a postponement due to the current security situation prevailing in the region.
However, if the elections are postponed, that will bring its own sets of problems including strengthening the hands of the terrorists and their handlers that they were able to delay the election process, raise questions on the capabilities of the government and the security forces to hold elections in a state where the narrative is that peace has been achieved, and thirdly sow seeds of doubts and resentment in the minds of the voters who have not been governed by a democratically elected state government since August 2019 when Article 370 was revoked.
Intelligence sources said that one of the reasons for terrorists being asked by their handlers to focus on Jammu for the time being is that the Army and the local police were acting “swiftly” on overground workers in Kashmir after any terror attacks.
In December last year, three locals from Topa Pir village, Pir Panjal valley, Poonch district were found dead after being taken into custody by the Army on the allegation of them acting as overground workers for terrorists who killed four soldiers in an ambush in Dera ki Gali on 21 December.
The terrorist groups are now working with the objective to keep their traditional pool of overground workers from coming on the radar of the security forces and hence are carrying out attacks in Jammu in which the help they are getting is from people of other communities.
The Jammu division consists of districts of Jammu, Doda, Kathua, Ramban, Reasi, Kishtwar, Poonch, Rajouri, Udhampur and Samba, of which Jammu, Kathua, Udhampur and Samba have majority Hindu population.
Secondly, by targeting the security forces in Jammu, which is seen as “Hindu” dominated, officials said, these terror groups are also working on the objective to create a fault line on the basis of religion and create a sense of terror in Jammu so that those who have the resources and the wherewithal might start thinking of leaving and shifting to some other state. This was the same model that was adopted by Pakistan-backed terror groups in Kashmir in the late 1980s, early 1990s when thousands of non-Muslims were asked to leave Kashmir by these terror groups.
Sources believe that since Jammu shares a border with Punjab, it is not ruled out that the jihadi groups were getting support from the pro-Khalistani elements in the region.
According to official sources, the deployment of the counter-terror grid is now more widespread than ever before in the state which has led to more challenges for the security officials, including the presence of more escape routes. As per an August 2022 data, the Indian Army was working with a shortage of 7,799 officers and 108,685 soldiers than its total sanctioned strength.