In UP, Congress wants to fight on 40 seats if the alliance happens, but the SP wants to give it only 10 to 15 seats.
With the constituents finding it difficult to arrive at a consensus on the seat sharing formula, apprehensions are being raised about the unity of the I.N.D.I.A coalition which was formed to defeat the National Democratic Alliance in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. While seat sharing is a big challenge, there is also the fear of a possible dent in the coalition in Maharashtra and Bihar.
Although Congress is ready for every kind of compromise, apprehensions about the unity of the opposition bloc remain. Statements from NCP and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra are leading to a debate over whether these parties will remain together till the elections. Nitish Kumar’s move to be at the helm of JD(U) also carries some political message for the coalition, indicating that all is not well.
At the same time, there is also the possibility of AamAadmi Party and TMC parting ways with the bloc. A large section of Congress is against joining hands with the AAP. It is, therefore, a tough challenge for Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge to save the INDI Alliance. Even small parties of the alliance are not showing any respect towards the Congress. The compulsion of the Congress is that in the present situation it is not in a position to exercise its authority. The committee formed by the Congress for the alliance held meetings and discussed the seats with its state leaders. But things are not moving forward. A couple of more meetings of Congress’ National Alliance Committee will take place during which Kharge will talk to the heads of the constituent parties in a bid to reach a consensus on seat sharing. However, seat sharing will be a big challenge.
The Congress alliance committee headed by party general secretary Mukul Wasnik has senior leaders such as former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, Salman Khurshid, Mohan Prakash, former Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh Bhupesh Baghel etc. This committee has submitted its report, but the issue of seat sharing is still stuck. The committee will meet again in a day or two.
The Congress will directly take on BJP in the Hindi belt states of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Himachal. But in most of the remaining states, Congress will bank on allies. In Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Bihar, which have the highest number of Lok Sabha seats, Congress is facing internal complications. In Uttar Pradesh, Congress wants to fight the polls in alliance with SP and BSP. But even after talks with BSP, things could not work out. In such a situation, the Congress is dependent on the Samajwadi Party. But there is a doubt whether things will be resolved.
UP Congress leaders want to fight on 40 seats if the alliance happens, whereas the SP wants to give it only 10 to 15 seats. Congress leaders say that the party should contest all 80 seats if things do not work out, and there should be a post-poll alliance. These Congress leaders argue that if workers are active on all these 80 seats, it will benefit the party in the next Assembly polls. Some leaders of Uttar Pradesh Congress believe that in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both regional parties SP and BSP will be marginalized and Congress will get a chance to reclaim its ground.
Bihar too is giving Congress a worrying time. As per the calculations done by JDU and RJD together, Congress seems to be getting only 3 to 4 seats out of a total of 40 Lok Sabha. Congress leaders in Bihar want 10 seats. Congress knows that the BJP might be in for a big setback in Bihar and Maharashtra if the alliance remains intact in these states. Both the states together account for 88 Lok Sabha seats.
Congress estimates that due to the caste equation in Bihar and public sympathy towards Uddhav Thackeray in Maharashtra, INDI Alliance can win more than 50 Lok Sabha seats, which will be a big blow for the BJP. But the question is whether Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Uddhav Thackeray and NCP in Maharashtra will continue to be with the bloc. However, Maharashtra Congress leaders want 14 to 15 seats. But the Congress might end up getting only 5 to 7. It does not seem that things will work out in West Bengal, Delhi, Punjab and Kerala.
TMC can also fight alone in Bengal. In such a situation, Congress and Left parties will fight a friendly battle together in Bengal, but there will be a tough clash in Kerala. Congress leaders of Punjab are not ready to compromise with AAP at all. A large section of the party is against taking AamAadmi Party along.
This faction believes that the AAP is losing popularity in the state. There is resentment among the public due to “corruption”. With this being the case, Congress should fight alone in Delhi and Punjab. As far as South India is concerned, Congress will contest elections as a big party in Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
Congress will have to accept the seats that are given by DMK in Tamil Nadu. The seat sharing in the Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir is also not easy. So the task is cut out for Kharge. He has to keep the alliance intact. Constituents are upset as the December deadline for seat-sharing has already gone and nothing has been decided yet.