The Assembly polls are also about electing the next President

New Delhi: Whether it is a playground or a business market, the benefits of reaching the top can be obtained only when preparations are done for far-reaching success. Similarly, keeping in mind the far-reaching interests in politics, the goals can be fulfilled only by making continuous efforts. Narendra Modi is one of those leaders who keep preparing plans while keeping far-reaching goals and results in mind. From this point of view, it should be kept in mind that the result of the upcoming elections of the Uttar Pradesh and Punjab Assemblies are more than just about him and the BJP. It also cannot be ignored that it’ll be followed by the election of the President to be held in a few months, then in 2024, the same elected President will be inviting a leader who can prove majority forming the new government.
The oldest player in politics, Sharad Pawar and Mamata Banerjee are also working on this strategy, keeping the presidential election in mind. There was a book published long ago related to Indian politics: “Who after Nehru?” But after Indira Gandhi came to power again in 1980, despite the presence of veteran leaders, no book came out that said: “Who after Indira?” After her brutal assassination in 1984, Pranab Mukherjee being a senior leader, his biography was shared among the journalists. But other leaders of Congress and then President Zail Singh made Rajiv Gandhi the Prime Minister. There was no book related to V.P. Singh, Chandra Shekhar and Narasimha Rao becoming prime ministers.
In 1993 I had published a book titled “Rao Ke Baad Kaun”. In the book, I wrote a chapter on the political strengths and weaknesses of Sharad Pawar, Arjun Singh, Madhavrao Scindia, Rajesh Pilot, Chandra Shekhar and Atal Bihari Vajpayee among the prominent leaders who could have been Rao’s substitutes. Although this book did not sell much, it was the most talked about in political circles. Narasimha Rao, a little upset with the book, even said at a function, “I don’t care about such a book being written.” Then, in a separate meeting, he told me, “What is the hurry for your friends Scindia and Rajesh to become Prime Ministers?” I replied politely that he should be glad that his young colleagues also have the potential to become Prime Minister. However, later Scindiaji and some of his associates kept apprehending that Rao implicated them in the Hawala scam only because of the presence of their names in that book.
It is a different matter that later all the accused related to the scam were acquitted by the court, but Congress at that time was divided by Rao’s attitude. In the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, no party had a clear majority and President Shankar Dayal Sharma invited Atal Bihari Vajpayee to form the government and made Atal Bihari Vajpayee the Prime Minister on the basis of numbers. After this, the government was formed at the Centre two or three times due to numerical strength, manipulation and coalition. The role of the President has always been important.
It would be appropriate to mention another sequence of events in the context of the power of the President. After getting angry with Rajiv Gandhi, President Zail Singh once told Congress’ Vidyacharan Shukla in my presence that “Despite not having majority at the moment, if you get the signatures of 50 MPs, I will administer the oath of Prime Minister to you.” At that time the President was thinking of sacking Rajiv Gandhi, but neither Shukla could make such an effort nor Zail Singh could sack Gandhi because of various pressures and advice. This means that constitutionally the President can make anyone the Prime Minister and can also dismiss him if he wants to. In the absence of a clear majority, the importance of a President will be more. Mamata Banerjee on the strength of a coalition in 2024 also wants to see a favourable leader as President.
In the current political scenario, Mamata and her supporters feel that with the support and strength of the members of the Legislative Assemblies of West Bengal, Telangana, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Delhi, and MPs of similar regional parties, they can have a President of their choice. This is the reason why Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP and their supporters want to bring the maximum number of MLAs in the Legislative Assemblies of other states including Uttar Pradesh and Punjab at any cost. About 690 MLAs are to be elected in the five Legislative Assemblies. Then according to the population, the votes of 403 MLAs of Uttar Pradesh and 117 of Punjab will be more crucial than smaller states in the presidential election.
The second question related to this issue is as to who will be the President after Ramnath Kovind? According to tradition, after Dr Rajendra Prasad, no one got the presidency twice. On the possibility of a BJP leader becoming President by the choice of Narendra Modi, no one can name any perfect candidate at this point of time, because in 2017 no one had imagined that Modi would make Ramnath Kovind, who had become Governor a little earlier, as President. However, Dr Shankar Dayal Sharma and Smt Pratibha Patil had got this post after being Governors of states. But both had been MLAs, MPs, and Ministers for many decades. At present, among the Governors nominated by the BJP government, Kalraj Mishra, Bhagat Singh Koshiari are old veterans. A long list of aspirants are there among BJP’s Cabinet members or MPs or Chief Ministers. But if the cooperation of other parties is needed, names like Governor Arif Mohammad Khan, Ghulam Nabi Azad can also come up. After all, BJP had made Dr A.P.J. Abdul Kalam the President. In the name of Kashmir, apart from Ghulam Nabi, an old contender, Hindu believer and Congress leader Dr Karan Singh can be a favourable option for BJP. Similarly, the former Chief Minister of Kashmir, Farooq Abdullah has been in this race for years. Apart from Sharad Pawar and Farooq, Mamata will try to promote names like Naveen Patnaik. That’s why she herself is engaged in honing contacts with political parties and leaders of different states. The game with far-reaching election results is starting now.
The author is editorial director of ITV Network—India News and Aaj Samaj Dainik.