‘BJP may not be able to form govt in Jharkhand’

According to RSS functionaries on the ground, the BJP was from the beginning fighting a tough battle.

 

New Delhi:The Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to fall short of securing the required number of seats to once again form the government in Jharkhand when the results of the Assembly elections will be announced on 23 December.

Assessment done by ground-based Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) workers, Congress leaders and Ranchi-based political observers, and shared with The Sunday Guardian, indicate that the anti-incumbency on the ground against Chief Minister Raghubar Das stayed relevant across the five phases of polls in the state, the last of which was held on 20 December. A top national BJP leader, after getting reports from the ground on Friday night, told his Jharkhand counterpart that the party was likely to be restricted to 25 seats.

According to Congress strategists, following the success of the “Maharashtra model”—where the Congress was able to stitch an alliance of unlike minded parties—in Jharkhand too, the Congress is very much open to forming the government with other parties like the All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) (which had supported the BJP in the last government) and the Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM).

These two parties did not contest the election as a part of the grand alliance, which has the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in it.

“Our calculations are that we (grand alliance) are winning on 33-38 seats which means that we will need the support of JVM or the AJSU to reach the magic figure of 41. We have already proved in Maharashtra that for us, the Chief Minister’s chair is not vital, which takes care of the most contentious issue. We are going to take the lead in bringing the alliance leaders on the table once the results are announced and submit the list of the MLAs to the Governor,” a senior Congress leader, who shuttles between Delhi and Ranchi, said.

The Congress believes that the alliance will have one CM (from JMM) and two deputy CMs (from RJD/JVM/AAJSU and Congress).

In the case in which both the BJP and the grand alliance get equal number of seats, Marandi can emerge  as the kingmaker.

“Even if we don’t fall short of the required numbers, we have expressed our clear intentions that we want to take Marandiji-led JVM along with us. Who gets what (ministries) is something that can be worked out in a matter of hours once the ‘heart meets’ formally,” the Congress leader added.

According to RSS functionaries on the ground, the BJP was from the beginning fighting a tough battle.

“We have no illusions; the BJP is engaged in a tough battle. The inputs that have been coming are not too encouraging. We have been hearing instances where our core voters have either abstained from voting or have voted for ‘honest faces’ without looking into their party affiliations as several tainted candidates were given tickets. Party workers being upset with Das is something about which a lot has been discussed. There was a strong but silent anti-incumbency, which was negated somewhat after the rallies by the Prime Minister. However, we are not sure that whether it is enough to push the BJP towards 41 seats,” he said.

A calculation that is likely to come into play within the BJP is the emergence of Union minister Arjun Munda as the Chief Minister candidate, if the BJP fails to secure a clear majority, as Munda commands more acceptability within and outside the party.

The RSS functionaries said that the party deciding to give ticket to Shashi Bhushan Mehta from Panki, Palamu, has not gone down well with the Brahmin voters as Mehta is accused of killing his school’s warden, Suchitra Mishra, in 2012. Mehta was brought into the party by Raghubar Das himself.

The BJP had won on 37 seats in the 2014 elections in the House of 81 Assembly seats and had formed the government with the support of AJSU which won on 5 seats.

In the grand alliance, as per political observers, the JMM will get the maximum number of seats, followed by the Congress. The Left parties are expected to win on at least two seats, including from Bagodar, where a very down-to-earth leader and two-time MLA, Vinod Singh, is contesting.

Observers pointed out that Raghubar Das, despite getting the full support of the Central government, failed to improve the economic status of the tribal state. As per official figures, the private investments in the state declined steadily in the last five years. In 2018-19, 44% of all investment projects in Jharkhand were stalled, the highest rate in India, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. The unemployment rate in the state was 7.5 % in 2017-18 when it was 6% in the rest of India.