Bangladesh’s participation in Pakistan’s naval exercise and military cooperation signals a geopolitical shift, raising security concerns for India.
New Delhi: For the first time in over a decade, Bangladesh is sending a major warship to Pakistan’s naval exercise Aman 2025. This move, combined with a visit by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief, Lieutenant General Asim Malik, to Dhaka and plans for joint military training between the two nations, highlights a significant shift in regional geopolitics. These developments come after Sheikh Hasina’s ousting and the rise of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. For India, they raise concerns about the implications for security, particularly in its northeastern states, which are of strategic significance.
Pakistan’s Aman exercises, often overshadowed by India’s more prestigious Tropex, have limited international traction. Yet, Bangladesh’s active participation this year, marked by the deployment of one of its five frigates, signals a warming relationship with Islamabad. Meanwhile, intelligence-sharing talks and the re-establishment of direct sea links—severed since 1971—reflect a broader rapprochement. These steps have prompted New Delhi to step up surveillance along its borders with Bangladesh, with the Ministry of External Affairs stating it is “closely monitoring” the situation.
The growing ties between Dhaka and Islamabad open a new chapter in South Asia, but Pakistan’s history of unstable alliances and opportunistic partnerships is a cautionary tale. From Afghanistan to China and the United States, Islamabad’s foreign relationships have often been marred by mismanagement, strategic overreach, and unintended consequences.
A Legacy of Instability: Lessons from Afghanistan
For decades, Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan has been driven by its quest for “strategic depth” to counterbalance India. This strategy saw Islamabad support the Taliban’s rise in the 1990s and their resurgence after the U.S. withdrawal in 2021. While these moves temporarily expanded Pakistan’s influence in Kabul, they have backfired dramatically within Pakistan’s borders.
The resurgence of the Taliban has emboldened extremist groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which carried out over 500 attacks in 2024, causing more than 2,500 fatalities. These attacks have destabilised Pakistan’s border regions and strained its internal security apparatus. Even Beijing, Islamabad’s closest ally, has expressed concern over the spillover effects on Chinese investments, particularly along the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
For Bangladesh, the risks of engaging with Pakistan are clear. Closer ties could expose Dhaka to the extremist networks Pakistan has long nurtured for short-term gains, jeopardising its own security and stability.
The China Conundrum: A Debt-Fueled Partnership
Pakistan’s strategic alignment with China, symbolised by the ambitious CPEC initiative, was initially heralded as a game-changer for Islamabad’s economy.
However, the reality has proven far more complex. Mounting debt obligations, including dollar-denominated payments for idle energy projects, have exacerbated Pakistan’s economic woes. The result is an energy crisis marked by frequent blackouts, sparking widespread public protests.
Security challenges have further strained Sino-Pakistani relations. Attacks targeting Chinese workers, such as the 2022 bombing in Karachi and recurring violence in Balochistan, have led Beijing to demand enhanced security measures. These demands have thinned Pakistan’s resources, creating friction within the partnership.
Bangladesh, which maintains a cautious but mutually beneficial relationship with China, should be wary of aligning too closely with Islamabad. Doing so risks exposing Dhaka to similar economic and security vulnerabilities, particularly as Pakistan’s fiscal instability worsens.
From Ally to Adversary: The U.S. Experience
Once a key ally of the United States during the Cold War and the War on Terror, Pakistan has seen its relationship with Washington deteriorate over the past decade. Islamabad’s covert support for extremist groups, coupled with its deepening ties with China, has alienated U.S. policymakers. In 2024, a senior U.S. official described Pakistan’s long-range missile program as a “regional threat,” further isolating Islamabad diplomatically and reducing aid flows.
For Bangladesh, which has cultivated strong ties with the U.S., closer alignment with Pakistan could jeopardise its international standing and strain its relations with Western allies.
Historical Grievances: The Shadow of 1971
Despite recent overtures, Pakistan’s failure to address the atrocities of the 1971 Liberation War continues to cast a long shadow over its relations with Bangladesh. International recognition of the genocide has done little to compel Islamabad to issue a formal apology or address unresolved issues such as the repatriation of stranded Biharis.
For Dhaka, accepting overtures from a state that has long dismissed its sovereignty risks undermining Bangladesh’s hard-won independence. These historical grievances question Islamabad’s sincerity in engaging with Bangladesh as an equal partner.
Economic and Political Pitfalls
Pakistan’s fiscal instability is a stark warning for any potential ally. With a debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 80%, rampant inflation, and a plummeting currency, Islamabad’s economic mismanagement is a liability. Recurring bailouts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further highlight its inability to sustain long-term financial stability.
Politically, Pakistan’s military-dominated governance and history of supporting extremist groups pose additional challenges. For Bangladesh, which has made strides in consolidating democratic institutions, aligning with Islamabad risks importing political instability and undermining democratic norms and its already dwindling reputation.
Learning from Pakistan’s Troubled Partnerships
Pakistan’s alliances with Afghanistan, China, and America reveal a pattern of opportunism and instability. From fueling extremism in Afghanistan to mismanaging CPEC investments and alienating the U.S., Islamabad’s partnerships have often prioritised its military ambitions over the long-term interests of its allies.
Bangladesh’s recent economic trajectory and stable regional partnerships position it as a rising middle power in South Asia. Aligning with Pakistan risks derailing these achievements, exposing Dhaka to unnecessary economic and security vulnerabilities.
The Road Ahead for Bangladesh
The decision to participate in Aman 2025 and deepen military cooperation with Pakistan marks a strategic shift for Dhaka. However, the risks associated with aligning with Islamabad cannot be overlooked. From Afghanistan’s instability to China’s debt traps and U.S. diplomatic estrangement, Pakistan’s history of alliances serves as a cautionary tale.
As Bangladesh seeks to project its place as an emerging middle power, it must prioritise partnerships that align with its long-term strategic interests. Islamabad’s troubled history makes it an unwise choice. For Dhaka and New Delhi, the lessons of Pakistan’s past are clear: its alliances often lead to instability, and the costs of engagement may far outweigh any perceived benefits.
Ashish Singh is a senior journalist with over 17 years of experience in defence & foreign affairs.