‘It is mandatory to get a bill passed in both Houses, if Lok Sabha and Assembly polls are to be held simultaneously’.
New Delhi
The central government’s move to convene a special session of Parliament has given jitters to the Congress. But since the agenda has not been informed yet, speculation is doing the rounds that the Modi government may introduce some key bills, which include Uniform Civil Code (UCC), bill on women’s reservation to give 33% quota to women or reserving more than 180 seats for women. If the government gets any of these bills passed in the special session of Parliament, it will impact the politics of the Opposition. Particularly, it will be a setback for Congress in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The going will be tough if the state polls are clubbed with the Lok Sabha elections. The poll agenda will be different then and the BJP will fight on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face which will be posing a challenge to the Congress.
As of now, Congress is ahead in these three states. But passage of any of the showpiece bills in Parliament will set a different agenda. However, experts say that a special session is not required for advancing elections. Only the cabinet can decide and send the recommendation to the President for this purpose. But it is mandatory to get a bill passed in both Houses of Parliament, if Lok Sabha and Assembly elections have to be held simultaneously. Congress will not support such a legislation. Now the question is whether the government will advance Lok Sabha polls to synchronise with five Assembly elections in November, or will bring a constitutional amendment to postpone the state polls till May next year when parliamentary elections are due. The option of postponing state polls might see legal complications. The option of “One Nation-One Election” will face several legal wrangling as well. The government has given an indication about future plans by constituting a panel under the chairmanship of former President Ram Nath Kovind. Now this committee will come out with details about how to go about this option of “One Nation-One Election”.
If elections are held in two phases, then the Lok Sabha elections and polls of some state assemblies whose term is ending by 2025 can be held this year or early next year. The elections for the rest of assemblies are likely to be held with UP polls in 2027. If the government is determined, then it can get the bill passed in Parliament. The government has shown its power in Parliament at the time of passage of the Delhi Services Bill. Experts feel that it is a difficult task to hold the Lok Sabha and assembly polls together.
The BJP is definitely going to use Chandrayaan-3’s successful mission and G20 summit as poll issues. But it is not certain that these issues will benefit the BJP in poll-bound states. But the showpiece bills such as UCC, women quota bill, One Nation-One Election, etc. are strong political weapons that the BJP can use to upstage the Opposition and Congress. The parties in Opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A are divided over these two bills. The UCC will boost BJP’s Hindutva agenda. The saffron party realised that its Hindutva agenda lost sheen after its defeat in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka polls. The “Hindutva politics” was not gaining momentum in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Congress succeeded in scoring over BJP in terms of Hindu religious rituals in temples. But the Congress will be in a dilemma over the UCC bill if the government brings it. This bill will have a bearing on Maharashtra politics. The nervousness in the Opposition camp could be felt during I.N.D.I.A’s meeting in Mumbai.
Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena has already supported the UCC. AAP is also in favour of the UCC. If the government brings the long-awaited Women’s Quota Bill, it will also help BJP expand its support base among women voters. Just a day after convening Parliament’s special session from 18-22 September, the government formed a committee on One Nation-One Election. This decision also gave jitters to the Opposition bloc. If the government pushes it seriously, it will be a big jolt to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who has national ambitions. It might cast a shadow over the unity of the Opposition alliance. BSP supremo Mayawati has already announced to go it alone in elections. That BSP has a voter base in other states apart from UP is a cause of concern for Opposition parties. SP and AAP are also unlikely to continue with I.N.D.I.A. By all indications, PM Modi is trying to ensure that BJP bags state and then Lok Sabha elections.