PDP’s existential threat perception led to Mehbooba Mufti fighting from Anantnag.
The Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency in Jammu and Kashmir—specifically in the Valley—is seen to be an important electoral segment for the BJP (for the national narrative), which has re-engineered the contours of the seat and included a comparatively small section of Hindu voters from Jammu in the seat. However, with around 70% of the electorate of the constituency belonging to Kashmir, BJP leaders suggest that it will be a humongous task for them to craft a victory from this seat. This has subsequently shifted the focus onto the two regional forces National Conference and People’s Democratic Party. PDP chief and former J&K Chief Minister, Mehbooba Mufti is contesting from the seat.
IMPORTANCE OF JAMMU
With the Jammu segment of the Anantnag seat inhabited by Paharis and Gujjars, the saffron camp has chosen to favour the former at the policy level by offering them Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, which will give them reservation, and hence reduce the opportunity for Gujjars. Such a move has created a fertile electoral ground politically for BJP among Paharis who are expected to flock towards the lotus symbol on election day.
However, this may have antagonised the rival group of Gujjars who think that they will have limited opportunities, resulting in Paharis becoming the superior group in terms of privileges.
State president of the Gujjar Bakerwal Youth Welfare Conference (GBYWC), Zahid Parvaaz Chaudhary said, “We are annoyed with the BJP, but we are annoyed with other parties as well because when we protested against the granting of reservation to Paharis, no political party came to represent us. Now the question is: how will the Gujjars vote? The battle is going to be hard and interesting. If PDP does good ground work then they have a chance.
PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti, who is fighting from this seat, is the ideal choice. She is the most popular among all other candidates among Gujjars.”
DELIMITATION FACTOR
From around 14 lakh electorate in the Anantnag constituency in 2019 to the readjustment resulting in 18 lakh voters, spread across 18 Assembly constituencies (11 in Kashmir and 7 in Jammu) in 2024, there is no single vote bank that can make a party victorious. On the Jammu side, there are rival groups of Gujjars and Paharis. And on the Kashmir side, there are majority Kashmiris who are less enthused to vote. The dynamics are as such that advocating for Paharis by a particular party could antagonise the Gujjars, and speaking for Gujjars could perhaps invite the wrath of the Paharis. The thing that can provide a political party an edge is its cadre strength. A journalist tracking Kashmir politics said, “By and large, in Kashmir, the people who vote for a particular political party in general elections are those who are the members of that particular party. Therefore, it becomes a contest of the workers and not the electorate as such. The party which has got more cadre strength will be the front runner to win the elections. According to that maxim, National Conference could be the front runner.”
BOYCOTT FACTOR
Historically, Kashmiris have less associated themselves with the general elections, resulting in the least voter turnout (around 10% in Anantnag in 2019) in the past elections.
However, after the redesigning of the constituency and inclusion of electorate from Jammu, the dynamics of the Anantnag seat have completely changed. A political observer based in Anantnag said, “There is no boycott call this time, but people in Kashmir don’t find voting a priority. They don’t feel the need to vote in general elections. However, on the other side in Jammu, people vote in droves. Such differences in voting behaviour in the two sides could hurt Kashmir-based parties and subsequently help BJP (which is popular in Jammu).” The BJP is seen to be banking upon the voters from Jammu (Rajouri and Poonch), which comprises more than 30% of the electorate of Anantnag.
J&K’s former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti told The Sunday Guardian, “We have worked very hard in Rajouri and Poonch for everyone, especially my father (Mufti Saeed). We have done a lot for that place and when it came to ST status to Paharis, it is not as if they (BJP) have done them the favour, it was their right. I gave them (Paharis) 4% reservation when I was in power. But I didn’t ask them that you will have to vote for me. We have done development there as well.”
PERCEPTION POLITICS
There is an underestimation (among a section of political analysts) of the familiarity factor of ex Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, due to the perception that her collaboration with the BJP led the saffron camp to erode the special status of J&K. But the other section claims that she cannot be written off just like that for if she reaches out to the people, the PDP can revive and consolidate its former stronghold. Besides, among all the disturbances created by small political parties, the popularity element of Mehbooba could fuel the perception politics in favour of her. People’s Democratic Party spokesperson Tahir Sayeed said, “In 2019, there was a boycott call and due to that people who used to vote for us could not vote for like they did in 2014. That is the reason why NC was able to pocket that seat.”
A sentiment is also seen to be emerging within a section of the electorate that the NC has been under the clutches of the Centre (as both Abdullah father and son, Farooq and Omar are believed by people to be involved in legal wrangles) and therefore may not represent the people of Kashmir adequately. An ex legislator of Congress said, “There are Congress voters who strongly feel against the politics of National Conference. Therefore the transfer of votes towards NC from its alliance partner Congress may not be that smooth in the valley.” However, the prospect of Mian Altaf, who is NC’s candidate from Anantnag, cannot be written off, as NC has committed voters.
VERDICT
The smaller parties may end up dividing the votes of the two main regional parties NC and PDP. These smaller parties are Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP, Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party and Sajad Lone’s People Conference. This may or may not help the BJP. A leader from Jammu said, “Mian Altaf is very popular, in some pockets. And when it comes to that popularity translating into votes Altaf is well positioned there. But Mehbooba Mufti too will give a tough fight if the PDP is able to create a narrative against the NC. She can even win the seat.”