NEW DELHI: Punjab’s political landscape intensifies with a multi-party battle as LS elections play a crucial role for individual leaders.
The politics in Punjab is more about showcasing power in the state than at the national level. In terms of national politics, Punjab has only 13 representatives in the Lok Sabha. Still, when it comes to Vidhan Sabha elections, it becomes interesting as all parties, including Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiromai Akali Dal (Badal), SAD (Amarinder), and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), all have core votes. Still, the votes frequently get transferred in the state elections. When it comes to political surprises, Punjab always gives surprises, as AAP got its maiden Lok Sabha MPs from Punjab in 2014.
Earlier, there were only two power centres in Punjab: Prakash Singh Badal of SAD and Capt. Amarinder Singh of Congress and the contests were always bipolar. But the emergence of AAP and SAD(A) winning by-poll in Punjab’s Sangrur and the breakaway of the alliance of SAD-BJP has resulted in a multi-party battle in Punjab for the first time. In Punjab, there is neither NDA nor I.N.D.I.A., as all parties are contesting individually. This has resulted in various affluent leaders struggling for power centres in the state. That’s why the Lok Sabha election is proving to be crucial not for parties but for individuals.
For the AAP, led by Bhagwant Mann, this election is more about not leaking anti-incumbent votes, as it swept assembly elections with 92 seats. However, it faced defeat in Sangrur by-polls, and Simranjit Singh Mann’s victory surprised everyone. AAP hugely depends on its freebies, such as free electricity in the state. However, the issue of drugs, which is still a big issue in the state, has diminished now. AAP, which was vocal about the drug problem in Punjab, has maintained silence on the issue since it came to power. According to a professor from Punjab University, AAP performing better in this election will act as a litmus test for Bhagwant Mann and his government. AAP is not the state to lose votes in Punjab, and if that happens, it will ultimately benefit Congress.
For the grand old party, Congress, Punjab is a challenge not from the BJP but from its I.N.D.I.A bloc partner, AAP. Congress lost ground to AAP in the assembly election but cannot afford to lose it this time, as then in the run-up to the 2027 assembly polls, it will find itself derailed in the state.
Congress has marked its presence strongly by fielding popular candidates such as Amrinder Singh Warring, Charanjit Singh Channi, Sukh Pal Khaira, and others. Despite heavyweights, Congress is struggling against its archrival AAP in the state.
This election could be a win-win situation for the saffron party, the BJP, as it is expected to increase its vote share and may surpass its old partner, Akali Dal, both in terms of seats and vote percentage. Also, it has inducted heavyweights such as Ravneet Bittu, Sunil Jakhar, and other politicians focusing on the Jat and Sikh communities, as it is considered a powerful caste. The BJP already has strong Hindu faces and is set to play a pivotal role in the 2027 assembly elections. According to local experts, the BJP is expected to surprise the state with its performance.
Shiromani Akali Dal, once a strong force in the state, may go through its lowest performance in the state. In 2019 SAD had the second-highest vote percentage, which dipped in assembly elections making it hard for the old party to repeat its 2019 performance. While it could prove a turning point for SAD (A) in the Lok Sabha, it may emerge as a force challenging SAD. The prospect of an independent Amritpal will also determine the discourse of Punjabi politics.
Traditionally, the result of Lok Sabha elections has been reflected in the assembly elections of Punjab. When Congress came to power in the 2017 assembly elections, it won eight seats in the 2019 general elections. AAP, which had four Lok Sabha MPs in the 2014 elections, became the principal opposition party in the 2017 assembly. So, it is expected by the political pandits that whatever the outcome of the 2024 general elections may be, it will surely be reflected in the assembly elections scheduled for 2027.