NEW DELHI: BJP’s Lok Sabha election setback in Uttar Pradesh attributed to Dalit vote shift, Muslim-Yadav consolidation, and declining Rajput support.
The Lok Sabha election results in Uttar Pradesh came as a shocker to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it scored a lesser number of seats there than the opposition bloc led by the Congress-SP duo and also did not get much votes in many of its bastions in the state. The results subsequently shed light on the impact made by the shifting of Dalit votes.
Apart from the expected Muslim Yadav vote (around 34 per cent) consolidating behind the opposition bloc, the shift in Dalit vote could be seen in the result on SC seats (17 such seats in UP) as BJP numbers fell from 15 to 8 while the SP-Cong went from 0 to 8. The remaining reserved seat, Nagina, which was won by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2019, went to Chandra Shekhar Azad of the Aazad Samaj Party this time. The Congress-SP duo in UP had developed a narrative during the Lok Sabha elections suggesting that the BJP is going to alter the Constitution. This rang alarm bells across the Dalit community helping the coalition grab 44 Lok Sabha seats overall in the state.
A political analyst said, “Not only should we talk about the two national blocs we should talk about Mayawati (BSP chief) as well. The way she lost her ground helped both the Congress-SP alliance on some seats and the BJP on some others. This time they (BSP) went below 10 per cent vote (around 9 per cent) in vote share for the first time in more than two decades. With this election, it is expected that the trust of Dalits will change its track and start shifting to other parties, which could help Congress to re-establish itself in the state.”
The rough estimate of political watchers suggests that on several seats not only did a chunk of Rajputs (which consist around 12 per cent of UP population) keep themselves from voting but also voted against BJP on multiple seats.
A political analyst based in Uttar Pradesh Aaditya Rathi said, “Initially, if say, there were more than 90 per cent Rajputs in favour of BJP, now, it is plausible that the Rajput voters withheld themselves and this time only around 60 per cent Rajputs showed support to the BJP (some Rajput leaders held panchayats and openly showed discontentment towards BJP rule). That sharp downfall in the vote bank of BJP’s particular bastions helped the opposition coalition to win more seats.”
There is a common understanding among political analysts that both parties could not have crossed double digits had they contested separately. According to a Samajwadi Party (SP) insider, there was a meeting held by party chief Akhilesh Yadav some months back in which top Muslim leaders had advanced the argument of minority votes shifting away from regional parties after Congress MP Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra.
A Congress leader said, “There was evidential proof of Muslims’ votes shifting towards Congress when they won Karnataka and Telangana. Therefore, it was raised in the meeting that SP cannot perform on its own. This knowledge made SP need Congress more than the other way around.
Moreover, there was this sentiment among Muslims that they voted for SP in assembly and yet they couldn’t overturn BJP and so now they were willing to vote for Congress.”