TAIPEI: The balloon-gate episode and the subsequent cancellation of Antony Blinken’s China visit have further proven that the United States-China relations are far from getting normalised, and that the channels of communication are fast depleting. This also signals towards another year of contestations and escalation in tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
The rules-based order entails different things to different countries but the emergence and wider endorsement of the rules-based liberal order is a sign of growing concerns regarding China’s hostile behaviour under Xi Jinping. The crisis in Ukraine and China’s aggressive postures, including the centralized and consolidated power of Xi during the two sessions, have led to a realization among like-minded countries that democracies need to stick together for maintaining the rules-based order. This was manifested by Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, who said, “The world’s democracies are facing the greatest challenges since the Cold War as the likes of the new evil axis continue working to erode democratic institutions.”
With the escalation in tensions in the Taiwan Strait and at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), China has attempted to change the status quo and establish a new normal and has been advocating and legitimating this new norm. Last year, in the aftermath of the then Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China initiated military intimidation of Taiwan by launching live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait. In 2020, China unilaterally changed the status quo with India at the LAC by initiating the violent Galwan clashes. Such unilateral actions by China go against the basics of the rules-based order. China escalated tensions with both India and Taiwan since 2020 signaling its hardline approach towards the LAC and the Taiwan Strait. It has also shown lack of willingness to negotiate a resolution or go back to the status quo.
For the liberal democracies, it is important to realize these are not just India and Taiwan’s problems. There is a pattern in China’s behaviour. This new normal or “the Xi normal” is being established so that People’s Liberation Army’s modernization as well as China’s aggression are justified. China has multiple active territorial disputes in much of Asia. While there are different reasons to keep these dispute actives, such a behaviour confirms China’s expansionist tendencies. Liberal democracies need to step up to oppose China’s new normal.
Developments in the past two years have made it clear to deter China, it is vital for liberal democracies to work together. There is a need for more consultations and better coordination among the countries that are first in line of defence against China [read India and Taiwan]. While the Indo-Pacific has India at the centre, Taiwan still largely remains excluded from the official narrative.
The new normal established by dictatorships should not be widely accepted by the world. In particular, the “Xi normal” state of centralization of power and coercive military as well as economic behaviour should be opposed.
Several steps could be taken to challenge this new normal and preserve the rules-based order. First, no like-minded country should be left behind. Taiwan is an important key to the China challenge, and major Indo-Pacific stakeholders need to find a way to incorporate Taiwan. Second, injecting a strong economic component to safeguard the economic interests of the vulnerable countries will strengthen the Indo-Pacific framework. The United States-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) already has got endorsees, and negotiations have already begun on all four pillars (1) Trade; (2) Supply Chains; (3) Clean Energy, Decarbonization, and Infrastructure; and (4) Tax and Anti-Corruption. Specifying exact terms and policies of the four pillars will help countries to take active participation in the IPEF and eventually move towards reducing their dependence on China. Third, a forum for democracies to discuss issues of shared interests and common concerns need to be established. Regional democracies should come together under democratic frameworks to deter totalitarian states trying to alter the rules-based order to suit their interests. Fourth, accepting China’s new normal would mean more instability and contestation. It is vital especially for the regional countries to ask for maintaining the status quo, and oppose any attempts to establish a new normal.
This is not about propagating the narrative of democracies vs authoritarianism. This is about China’s intentions of shaping the rules-based order in its favour. More important is the realization that China is attempting to establish the new normal because democracies-led rules-based order was not best suited to China’s interests. This is a major reason why democracies need to sync their approaches and deter China’s belligerent behaviour. The interest of the liberal democracies’ lies in supporting and ensuring a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific, and an important feature of that is respect of territorial integrity and sovereignty and preservation of the status quo. Advancement of cooperation among like-minded democracies would serve as a basis for ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
Alan H. Yang is Executive Director of Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation (TAEF), and Distinguished Professor at the Institute of International Relations (IIR), National Chengchi University, Taiwan.
Sana Hashmi is Postdoctoral fellow at TAEF, and a fellow at George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations. She tweets @sanahashmi1.