Fate of state leaders are at stake in the five states where elections were held last month.
NEW DELHI
The high-stakes elections that concluded in the five states will decide the political future of several heavyweight leaders in the states, including Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, former Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, former MP CM Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh, Telangana CM K. Chandrashekar Rao, and Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel.
The political stature of these leaders will grow if they win. Questions will be raised over their political future if their parties lose. Though these five state elections cannot be termed semi-final before the Lok Sabha polls, the victory will mean a lot for the political parties that are gearing up for the Lok Sabha elections early next year. Congress will gain strength at the central level if it wins four of the five states, including Rajasthan. If Congress and BJP win two states each, then it will not have much political implications for the central level politics.
Parties such as the BJP, the BRS and Congress did a lot of political experiments in these elections. They spent huge amounts of money on publicity as well. Significantly, Congress, which focused on expanding the Opposition alliance after the Karnataka victory, distanced itself from the coalition partners. The grand old party did not give even a single seat to any party from the Opposition alliance. The Congress ignored Samajwadi Party’s appeal for an alliance in Madhya Pradesh, due to which the former could suffer some losses. After this, doubts are being raised on the future of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. Almost every other day an embarrassing incident is coming to the fore. Only last week, Tamil Nadu CM M.K. Stalin unveiled a life-size statue of former Prime Minister V.P. Singh in Chennai accompanied by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav. Congress was conspicuous by its absence on the occasion. Congress’ absence was linked to the party harbouring resentment against V.P. Singh for orchestrating the downfall of Rajiv Gandhi in the 1989 general elections and forming a Janata Dal-led coalition government with Leftist parties and BJP to become PM. At this event, Akhilesh Yadav made certain statements indicative of his plan to form a new front. Congress’ long-term ally DMK’s behaviour is intriguing. However, if the Congress performs well in MP and Rajasthan, then I.N.D.I.A. constituents will be on the back-foot.
The Rajasthan election outcome will shape the future of Gehlot and Raje. There will be a negative impact on the political future of the leader whose party loses there. If the BJP sails through with a comfortable majority in Rajasthan, then Raje’s future will hinge on the wishes of the BJP leadership, which may either appoint her as CM or ask her to leave Rajasthan.
Congress has placed its bet on Gehlot in Rajasthan. His schemes raised the party’s hopes. Congress’ victory in Rajasthan will give oxygen to the entire party. It will also emerge stronger at the national level ahead of the general elections. If Congress loses, Gehlot’s rivals will open a front against him.
Similarly, if Congress wins in MP, the political stature of both Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh will rise. Congress’ defeat in MP will be a setback for Nath as he has been leading the party in the state since 2020. Digvijaya might be able to cope with any negative outcome. CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan will emerge much stronger if BJP retains power in MP. Jyotiraditya Scindia’s stature will also increase. But if the BJP loses, Chouhan’s political career might be over. Similarly, Congress’ win in Chhattisgarh will give more power to Bhupesh Baghel. But he might be brought to Delhi if Congress loses there. BJP leader and former CM Dr Raman Singh’s fate will also be shaped by the poll results in Chhattisgarh. In Telangana, K. Chandrashekar Rao single-handedly took on both the Congress and the BJP. If Congress gets power in Telangana, it will be a massive jolt for both Rao and BJP. BJP’s future calculations in the state might get upset. It will be a kind of new beginning for Congress if it captures power in this southern state.